Sean Clancy
THE 144th Kentucky Derby attracts another full field of 20 going 10 furlongs at Churchill Downs. Every year, an eclectic group emerges for the sport’s biggest race, but this year’s battalion could be the best of them all.
Sure, there are some hopeless dreamers but there are a host of contenders who have legitimate chances to become the next superstar.
Here’s a look at each starter with the reason they’ll win and the reason they’ll lose.
Just for the record, last year we wrote the following about last year’s winner Always Dreaming.
Why he’ll win: Riding a three-race win streak, he’s the best horse in the race without any visual signs of weakness. He has enough tactical speed to find a sweet spot in the 20-horse tornado. Todd Pletcher and John Velazquez - enough said.
Why he’ll lose: Hmm, let me get back to you on that.
FIRENZE FIRE (Paco Lopez/Jason Servis)
Why he’ll win: Servis, the brother of John who trained Smarty Jones to win the Derby, is as crafty as they get but rarely has the best stock. He’s got the most aggressive jockey in the sport.
Why he’ll lose: He’ll need the most aggressive jockey in the sport to get a position from the inside stall. Even if he gets that position, he’s yet to show that he can spar with the likes of Vino Rosso and Enticed.
FREE DROP BILLY (Robby Albarado/Dale Romans)
Why he’ll win: He’s a plodder who will stay the trip.
Why he’ll lose: Plodders rarely win the Kentucky Derby.
PROMISES FULFILLED
(Corey Lanerie/Dale Romans)
Why he’ll win: Romans has gotten close to winning the Derby in the past, with horses who weren’t the cream of the crop.
Why he’ll lose: Frontrunner used his speed to win the Fountain of Youth but couldn’t carry it in the Florida Derby where he was beaten 35 lengths.
Yes, 35 lengths in his Derby prep.
FLAMEAWAY (Jose Lezcano/Mark Casse)
Why he’ll win: Hey, if Casse can win at Royal Ascot, he’s got to be able to win a Derby with a 30/1 shot, right?
Why he’ll lose: Another one with tactical speed, there will be 10 horses trying for his spot and they’re all drawn outside him.
AUDIBLE (Javier Castellano/ Todd Pletcher)
Why he’ll win: Dominated foes in the Holy Bull and Florida Derby, he can sit close or drop off the pace, he’s won four in a row and has Pletcher at the helm. Charisma, star power, ability, presence…sounds like a Derby winner.
Why he’ll lose: There are about eight others with those same traits.
RIGHT: Good Magic wins the Bluegrass Stakes (G2) at Keeneland Credit: Matt Wooley/EquiSport Photos
GOOD MAGIC (Jose Ortiz/Chad Brown)
Why he’ll win: Third race off the layoff is a tried-and-true method, the two-year-old champion has rounded into form with a third in the Fountain of Youth and a win in the Blue Grass. A 32% trainer, Brown will win a Derby some day and it might as we be today.
Why he’ll lose: Simply beaten by a better horse on the day.
JUSTIFY (Mike Smith/Bob Baffert)
Why he’ll win: Three-for-three, big and beautiful, speed and stamina, Baffert and Smith…you want more reasons?
Why he’ll lose: Seasoning? He makes just his fourth start of his career.
Justify winning the Santa Anita Derby
LONE SAILOR (James Graham/Tom Amoss)
Why he’ll win: Produced his best race at the longest distance he ever tried, finishing second in the nine-furlong Louisiana Derby.
Why he’ll lose: His best race isn’t good enough.
HOFBURG (Irad Ortiz/Bill Mott)
Why he’ll win: Bill Mott succumbs to pressure less than any trainer I’ve ever known. Juddmonte puts less pressure on trainers than any owner I’ve ever known. Mott decides to bring a late-blooming horse who’s made three career starts to the Kentucky Derby.
Why he’ll lose: Like Justify, the son of Tapit lacks seasoning.
MY BOY JACK
(Kent Desormeaux/Keith Desormeaux)
Why he’ll win: Mendelssohn, Justify and Magnum Moon burn up vying for the lead, Audible, Good Magic, Bolt d’Oro and Vino Rosso burn up chasing them and he’s the last man standing of the pick-up-the-pieces-one-run gallopers.
Why he’ll lose: You’ve got four Hall of Famers, two future Hall of Famers and a guy named Moore in that scenario and it just won’t happen.
BOLT D’ORO (Victor Espinoza/Mick Ruis)
Why he’ll win: After a stop-and-go winter, he’s put two hard races under his belt and he moves forward in his third race off the layoff. Certainly talented enough if he can replicate his juvenile form.
Why he’ll lose: Justify thumped him in the Santa Anita Derby.
ENTICED (Junior Alvarado/Kiaran McLaughlin)
Why he’ll win: He’s been battled tested in six starts, has shown in he can win a fight and will move forward from his gut-check second to Vino Rosso in the Wood Memorial.
Why he’ll lose: In his three wins, he’s beaten Old Time Revival, Tiz Mischief and Dirty. Yes, Dirty. Who in the hell are they? Exactly my point.
BRAVAZO (Luis Contreras/D. Wayne Lukas)
Why he’ll win: No connections throw more paint at the wall than Calumet Farm and D. Wayne Lukas. They once won the Preakness with paint they called Oxbow. Yes, Oxbow won the Preakness. I’m not kidding.
Why he’ll lose: If good performances propel you to the Derby, then bad performances should dispel you from the Derby, well, he was drilled by Noble Indy, Lone Sailor and My Boy Jack – and I’m not picking any of the three – in the Louisiana Derby.
MENDELSSOHN (Ryan Moore/Aidan O’Brien)
Why he’ll win: Because he’s Irish! Also, did you happen to see the UAE Derby? Obviously handled the distance that day and looked like a machine, like shake-your-head-in-disbelief machine.
Talent, pedigree, connections make the most potent recipe and he’s already proven he can come to American and win, taking the Breeders’ Cup Juvenile Turf last year.
And, again, he’s Irish!
LEFT: Mendelssohn at Churchill Downs
Why he’ll lose: Needed to learn something in the UAE Derby, at least learn to take some dirt in his face, instead, he sauntered on the lead and won comfortably – untried, untested. There will be nothing comfortable about manouvering through 20 horses in the Derby.
INSTILLED REGARD (Drayden Van Dyke/Jerry Hollendorfer)
Why he’ll win: Hollendorfer is a magician.
Why he’ll lose: Rabbits don’t live in hats.
RIGHT: Magnum Moon winning the Arkansas Derby at Oaklawn Credit Coady Photography
MAGNUM MOON (Luis Saez/Todd Pletcher)
Why he’ll win: Undefeated in four starts, has the pedigree for it and Pletcher in his corner.
Why he’ll lose: Another frontrunner in a field full of them, he drifted out late in the Arkansas Derby, there’s no drifting and wavering in a minefield. And, he’s also got the Apollo curse to overcome. Google it.
SOLOMINI (Flavien Prat/Bob Baffert)
Why he’ll win: Baffert…?
Why he’ll lose: As they say, form is form. Magnum Moon slammed him in their previous two meetings and no reason to see why it will change here.
VINO ROSSO (John Velazquez/Todd Pletcher)
Why he’ll win: Talented colt who appeared to put it together with a dominant win in the Wood Memorial, slamming Enticed. And, John Velazquez chooses him over Audible and Noble Indy – that’s good enough for me.
Why he’ll lose: Somehow finished behind Flameaway twice this winter.
NOBLE INDY (Florent Geroux/Todd Pletcher)
Why he’ll win: He’s won three of four starts, including the nine-furlong Louisiana Derby. Tactical speed will help find a position without needing to be in front.
Why he’ll lose: Velazquez abandons him, lost to Bravazo who is 50/1 in here.
COMBATANT (Ricardo Santana/Steve Asmussen)
Why he’ll win: Breaking from the outside, he’s got one choice, drop over and hope for a pace demise which can happen in the Derby cauldron.
Why he’ll lose: He’s won just one race and that was all the way back in October.
BLENDED CITIZEN (Kyle Frey/Doug O’Neill)
Why he’ll win: Trainer Doug O’Neill has won a couple of Derbies. OK, that’s all I’ve got.
Why he’ll lose: On the also-eligible list, he’s never won on the dirt and failed to land a blow in the Blue Grass.
SELECTIONS:
1. Hofburg
2. Justify
3. Audible
4. My Boy Jack