Ayr Saturday

1.10 Scotty Brand Handicap Chase (Premier Handicap) 2m 110y

This race features two previous winners but the horse who makes most appeal at the prices is Homme Public, who ran a fine race over hurdles last time but performed even better on his last chase start, when trying to concede weight to last week’s Maghull Novices’ Chase runner-up Brookie at Doncaster. The assessor has raised him just 1lb for that career-best effort and the blinkers he wore for the first time at Doncaster are refitted now.

1.43 CPMS Novices’ Champion Handicap Chase 3m 20y

There was no official reason given for Ideal Des Bordes poor run at Kempton last time, with the stewards happy to note that “Nicky Henderson reported the gelding stopped quickly on this occasion”. It was a similar story when the horse pulled up when favourite at Exeter last season, except it was James Bowen who reported the horse had stopped quickly, a fact that both the stewards and those watching the race already knew.

Luckily, we have the benefit of knowing when horses have had wind surgery, as that helps to explain why Ideal Des Bordes went from Hillman Imp at Exeter to Porsche 911 at Kempton a year ago, and why he might be similarly transformed by another tweak to his wind since disappointing here in February. His previous effort, when splitting Eyed and Sea Invasion over course and distance, has worked out well enough, with that pair finishing second in competitive handicaps on their next starts, the former from a 5lb higher mark, and the latter behind a subsequent winner. He was taken out of an intended engagement earlier in the month due to the ground, but would be of significant interest if allowed to take his chance here.

2.15 Coral Scottish Champion Hurdle (Limited Handicap) (Grade 2) 2m

The same comments apply to Bunting here as to Loughglynn in the previous race, in that he looks one to give a chance to in a handicap over this trip, but has yet to show form away from soft ground. Ethical Diamond, on the other hand, is suited by a sound surface and likely to be helped by a test of speed over hurdles, so makes plenty of appeal despite top weights having shaped very well in the County Hurdle last month.

2.55 UK Greentech Glasgow Seafield Trophy Mares’ Handicap Hurdle 3m 70y

Winning a handicap and not being put up by the assessor is racing’s equivalent of damned by faint praise, but I think recent Musselburgh winner Rockola Vogue is much better than the bare figures of that success (beat a mare who was 12lb out of the weights by half a length) and believe that she remains well-handicapped.

A pretty useful bumper performer, she won over hurdles at Hexham in October but has been held back by her jumping in qualifying runs, earning an opening mark of 110 as a result. She was beaten on handicap debut, again making an error or two, but very much caught the eye having been given too much to do behind the all-the-way winner Our Bill’s Aunt. She quickly made amends in the Lady Buttons Mares’ Final last time, picking up almost £20k for what was a fairly weak race, but was again held up last behind a well-ridden O’Faolain’s Glory and did well to reel the winner in.

Rockola Vogue will benefit from an end-to-end gallop and should also improve for the increased test of stamina trying three miles for the first time. She has been a little slow to learn, but is getting her act together now and my feeling is that she will have learned plenty from her latest run. The handicapper may not agree, but I think a mark of 115 seriously underestimates her potential.

3.35 Coral Scottish Grand National (Premier Handicap) 3m 7f 176y

I’m struggling to come to a verdict in the Scottish National in truth. I had a small interest on the well-handicapped Sail Away during the week, but while he appealed at 33/1, it’s far too easy to see the flaws in his make-up at less than half those odds. Hasthing travelled very well in the National Hunt Chase at Cheltenham, but he looked to be tiring when coming down at the last fence and he’s one of many with stamina to prove.

One who will stay, but just out of the weights is Edinburgh National winner Magna Sam, who has been freshened up since and should have been placed in this race two years ago, having also won that Musselburgh contest. He was rushed up to lead early in the home straight in that edition of the Scottish National, before fading from the last fence to finish fifth. As was shown a week ago, kicking for home too soon is tempting but unwise in staying handicaps. Magna Sam was racing off 128 then and is 4lb lower now, so he should be competitive and will be a relatively big price given his long-handicap position.

Newbury Saturday

1.25 Dubai Duty Free Finest Surprise (John Porter) Stakes (Group 3) 1m 4f

In the hope that the track isn’t watered heavily on Friday night, Bellum Justum gets the vote. He won the Blue Riband Derby Trial at Epsom on last year’s return and coped really well with firm turf when landing the Nashville Derby at Kentucky Downs (a US racecourse based loosely on Epsom). His stable has started the season well and he has fair prospects of improving from three to four.

2.00 Dubai Duty Free (Fred Darling) Stakes (Group 3, Fillies) 7f

Simmering made quite hard work of landing the Group 3 Princess Margaret Stakes at Ascot in July before beating a sub-par French challenge in the Group 2 Prix du Calvados over seven furlongs, but she impressed with her attitude in finishing second to Aidan O’Brien’s Fairy Godmother in the Albany Stakes, and particularly with her second to Lake Victoria in the Moyglare Stud Stakes in September.

Simmering was disappointing on paper in the Group 1 Prix Marcel Boussac on her final start, but a change of tactics had much to do with that, with her rider looking to conserve her stamina at a mile. This trip looks ideal, as does the ground, and she can prove herself a top-class filly on her return, with the booking of Christophe Soumillon taking the eye.

2.35 Watership Down Stud Too Darn Hot Greenham Stakes (Group 3) 7f

Rashabar gained his only win to date when an 80/1 shot in the Group 2 Coventry Stakes at Royal Ascot, so it’s easy to be negative about his prospects as a three-year-old. However, he showed improvement in his two starts after that, finishing second in the Group 1 Prix Morny to Whistlejacket before filling the same spot in the Group 1 Prix Jean Luc Lagardere at Longchamp, shaping better than the bare result on both occasions.

In the Morny, the winner led throughout on the stands rail while Rashabar was pushed very wide on the track as he launched his challenge, doing very well to separate himself from the pack and set off after the leader, and it was a short-looking three-parts of a length he was beaten at the line. In the Lagardere, he was involved with a battle for the lead for much of the straight before succumbing to the late charge of Camille Pissarro, rallying gamely to be beaten just a neck. Possessed of natural speed as well as an admirable fighting spirit, Rashabar is well-suited by this trip.

3.12 OLBG Spring Cup Handicap 1m 7y

Silver Sword benefitted from a return to a mile when scoring at Meydan last time and, despite a 4lb rise, he remains on a winning mark having scored off 93 at York in 2023. He ended up high in the weights last season after a couple of creditable runs in blacktype races, but should be competitive after working his way down the weights this spring.

His price has suffered in recent days, however, and there might be a little more value in Classic, who himself has become well-treated. Often campaigned over a straight mile, Classic gives the impression that he is better served by racing round a bend, running his best race last season when a close second at Sandown last June off a 4lb higher mark.

Recommended

Homme Public 1.10 Ayr – 1pt win at 13/2 (general)

Ideal Des Bordes 1.43 Ayr – 1pt win at 12/1 (Betfair, Paddy Power – 11/1 general)

Rockola Vogue 2.55 Ayr – 2pts win at 13/2 (Ladbrokes, Coral – 6/1 general)

Simmering 2.00 Newbury – 1.5pts win at 10/3 (general)

Rashabar 2.35 Newbury – 1.5pts win at 10/3 (Bet365, Hills – 3/1 general)