Cheltenham Saturday

1.40 From The Horse’s Mouth Podcast Novices’ Chase (Grade 2) 1m 7f 199yds

Fusil Raffles went the wrong way after a good start last season, but he has bounced back impressively since switched to fences, showing a good attitude at Uttoxeter on debut when not fully wound up, and then jumping much the best of the quartet when winning over course and distance last month He had more in hand than his winning margin over Sir Valentine showed.

He looks a high-class chaser in the making given the impression he made there, and while it can be argued that he won a rather uncompetitive race, he was thoroughly professional (aside from clipping the rail after the last), and the winning time was excellent. He will take a great deal of beating, and his jumping already looks a big asset, not particularly flashy, but quick and accurate, and that will be a big advantage in a bigger field.

2.15 Paddy Power Gold Cup Handicap Chase (Grade 3) 2m 4f 44yds

It’s interesting to note how many recent winners of this contest had a previous run during the season, and while there used to be a trend for horses being laid out to take this on seasonal debut, the idea that it’s straightforward to produce a horse at its very peak after a lengthy absence is far from the truth.

The market is dominated by second season chasers we’ve not seen since the spring, and while they need respect, I feel that the market does overvalue them to some degree, certainly to the detriment of those who have had an obvious pipe-opener.

With heavy rain due to arrive at some point on Saturday, the ground will ease, and that will favour Happy Diva, who won this race last year, and is yet to run a poor race at Cheltenham, while her record on soft or heavy ground over fences reads 321212142.

She was tanking along when brought down in this race two years ago, and battled well up the hill to beat Brelan D’As and subsequent December Gold Cup winner Warthog a year ago. In a dozen starts in Class 1 chases, she’s been first or second nine times, and her only unplaced effort when completing was when fifth in her prep race at Wetherby last month. She was ridden with an eye to the future there, and at double figures, and with six places on offer, she looks the proverbial gift horse once more.

I had a small interest on Kauto Riko earlier in the week at 66/1, as that price is too big on his best form, although that did come on good ground in the Peterborough Chase last year, so a downpour before racing would be a negative to his chances.

2.50 Paddy Power Games Handicap Hurdle (Listed) 2m 7f 208yds

I’ve had Mrs Milner on my radar for some time, and Paul Nolan’s mare is worth a bet with Robbie Power taking over from Sean O’Keeffe. She showed improved form when fitted with a tongue-tie and winning at Galway on her return, despite the drop to two miles being against her, and she found herself badly positioned on her latest start at Ballinrobe, only to stay on best of all to snatch third.

That race came over two and three-quarter miles, and she shapes as if three miles should be within her compass. I’m convinced we haven’t seen the best of her, and I given how she shapes in her races, I think Cheltenham should suit her.

3.25 Paddy Power 1st Millionaire Qualifier Intermediate Handicap Hurdle 2m 5f

I don’t think the handicapper has been harsh in assessing the unexposed Kepagge, who is unbeaten despite putting up one of the worst jumping displays I’ve seen in recent times when scoring at Leicester on his hurdles debut. That race is a write-off in terms of analysis other than to say that he did well to pull it out of the fire having gone off at 2/9 and hit 1000 in running on Betfair.

He was much improved when beating a useful pair at Doncaster on his only subsequent start, and he really could be anything. He’s had his wind tweaked since last seen, and while his trainer suggests he’ll be going chasing sooner rather than later, he’s very unlikely to lack for fitness here.

3.55 Karndean Flooring Mares’ Standard Open NH Flat Race (Listed) 2m 87yds

Lots of these have shown promise, and it’s never easy to assess early bumper performances, with time comparisons often misleading, and facile debut winners in this sphere are often over-rated. There are two which catch they eye here at bigger prices, and it’s worth noting that since this race was first run in 2013, four of the winners have been 14/1 or bigger, and two of those have been trained by Alan King.

One of King’s winners was The Glancing Queen, who carried the colours of Charles Dingwall. King and Dingwall are represented this year by Colours of My Life, whose dam is a full-sister to Outlander, Now McGinty and Western Leader, among others. She shaped well on her only start at Newbury, fading late through lack of fitness, and She’s sure to improve more than most.

I’d respect her chances, but marginal preference is for Martello Sky, whose latest win at Fakenham looks a smart piece of form.

It’s easy to dismiss gaff-track form as being weak, but Martello Sky was conceding a penalty when just touched off by Allavina at Market Rasen last season, and she looked a stronger performer when winning last time, and that is disguised by the fact that the race was slowly run. In the circumstances, she was impressive in quickening past the field on the home turn, and was only closed down as she idled.

I think she hit the front too early under claimer Maxime Tissier at both Market Rasen and Fakenham, and I think Richard Johnson will look to hold on to her for as long as possible here. His experience is certainly a plus, and this five-year-old looks too big on what she’s achieved.

Cheltenham Sunday

1.50 Planteur At Chapel Stud Handicap Chase (Grade 3) 3m 3f 71yds

Discorama has worked his way into my Tote Ten to Follow, so I will be pleased if he can improve his excellent Cheltenham record here. His record here is second in the Martin Pipe, second in the National Hunt Chase and third in the Ultima from three track runs. He is ideally suited by the way races tend to be run at Cheltenham, and is able to produce a strong finish up the hill as others tire, and this trip looks perfect for him.

I’d love to think he can become a candidate for the Grand National having followed him since he started over hurdles, and he’s only a couple of pounds higher than for his big run over shorter in March.

3.00 Unibet Greatwood Handicap Hurdle (Grade 3) 2m 87yds

I put Ballyandy up for the Welsh Champion Hurdle last time, and he caught a tartar in the shape of Sceau Royal, with the pair dominating under big weights. The winner has dotted up in the Elite Hurdle since, and while there are some improving hurdlers in here, the experienced Ballyandy is at the top of his game, and fully deserves his big weight.

I make this point on a regular basis, but it bears repeating that proven class is underrated in high-end handicaps, and horses capable of making their mark in Grade 1 company tend not to be weighted high enough for their form against the best, while easy winners of uncompetitive handicaps tend to be heavily punished for such wins.

There are seven placed on offer in this race with one firm, and six with others, so he demands to be backed each way at prices as big as 16/1.

Recommended

Saturday

Happy Diva 2.15 Cheltenham – 1pt e/w @ 12/1 (general)

Mrs Milner 2.50 Cheltenham – 2pts win @ 12/1 (Bet365, 10/1 general)

Martello Sky 3.55 Cheltenham – 1pt e/w @ 16/1 (general)

Sunday

Ballyandy 3.00 Cheltenham – 1pt e/w @ 12/1 (SkyBet – 7 places, or 16/1 Boyles, Betfred)

Winners tipped!

Rory tipped Ga Law at 2/1 and Sceau Royal at 4/5 favourite last week.