Newbury Sunday

1.35 Dubai Duty Free Finest Surprise Stakes (John Porter) (Group 3) 1m 4f

The John Porter Stakes, named after the great trainer who founded Newbury Racecourse, is a tricky affair to solve with pros and cons for all the runners, but I’m willing to take a chance on Deja on his first try at pattern level.

Peter Chapple-Hyam’s six-year-old was better than ever last summer, going down only narrowly in the Duke of Edinburgh Stakes at Royal Ascot before winning the Old Newton Cup under a big weight, and those performances point to him being capable of winning at Group 3 level. He ended 2020 by disappointing in the Ebor, but he was left poorly placed having pulled hard in the early stages there, and that race is something of a write-off in the circumstances.

Soft ground

When Deja won at Haydock he was conceding weight to subsequent listed winners Le Don de Vie and Ranch Hand, and the only concern here isn’t that he’s meeting much better rivals, which is up for debate, but that he has done most of his racing on turf on soft ground.

I’m sure that his trainer won’t risk him if the ground is deemed too quick, but there is no evidence that he won’t handle it other than a reputation for being fragile.

2.10 Dubai Duty Free Stakes (Fred Darling) (Group 3) 7f

Alcohol Free is the one to beat on the figures, and is respected accordingly, but I don’t think Isabella Giles got the credit she deserved for winning group races at Goodwood (Prestige Stakes) and Newmarket (Rockfel Stakes) last year, focusing too much on her failure when racing far to freely in the Fillies’ Mile.

She was clearly over the top at Newmarket, but had shown considerable improvement upped to seven furlongs for her previous wins, and while the Rockfel form has yet to work out, it’s not really been tested.

Impressive

Clive Cox’s filly was visually very impressive at Goodwood, and while the favourite that day disappointed under questionable tactics, she beat a couple of useful fillies by a wide margin, and was full value for so doing. She very much looked the type of filly who would progress again for a winter on her back, and she gets the chance to prove it here, with track and trip likely to suit her down to the ground.

Once again, the concern is the possibility of fast ground, but while she handled soft ground when winning the Prestige Stakes, it’s far from certain that she needs such cut in the ground to be fully effective.

2.45 Watership Down Stud Too Darn Hot Greenham Stakes (Group 3) 7f

Chindit gets a fairly confident vote in the Greenham, as main rival Alkumait, while clearly a smart performer in the making, looks every inch a sprinter to me, and this high-mettled performer is not at all certain to stay the trip, even ignoring his run in the Dewhurst when pulling far too hard in daylight.

Also disappointing in the Dewhurst was Chindit, albeit not to the same degree, and he does need to be forgiven that effort, but he was very impressive when winning the Champagne Stakes at Doncaster before that, and he will be ideally suited by this test going by the Doncaster effort.

Whether Chindit will stay the mile of the Guineas is a moot point, but a straight seven furlongs on a galloping track is certainly up his street, and he ought to take plenty of beating assuming he’s fully fit for this return to action.

3.20 Mansionbet Spring Cup Handicap 1m

Two horses caught my eye above all others in the Spring Cup. Matthew Flinders did well last season, but while he won over 1¼m, I didn’t think he stayed the extended trip at York on his final start, and he’s the sort to prove ideally suited by the way the big mile handicaps tend to be run.

He’s very much on the shortlist, but while he’s given the handicapper a chance to gauge his merit, the handicap debutant Troll Peninsula could be thrown in here off an opening BHA mark of 88.

A winner at Redcar on heavy ground last year, Troll Peninsula looked a much improved performer when landing a 1m novice at Kempton on his return, beating useful sorts Mount Marcy and Bonneval by 3½l and more while looking to have something in reserve.

He was very professional there, and it’s possible to argue that he was at an advantage in terms of experience at Kempton, but on the other hand, the main problem with lightly raced improvers in handicaps is that they often lack the know-how to deal with the situation even though they are leniently treated.

My impression with Troll Peninsula is that he’s both well-weighted and professional enough to make the most of that fact now tackling experienced handicappers for the first time.

Ayr Sunday

2.25 Coral Scottish Champion Hurdle (Limited Handicap) (Grade 2) 2m

I must confess to having a soft spot for a couple of these, but I’m insisting on letting head rule heart by rowing in with Thyme White, who has a very similar profile to Milkwood, but has been given a chance by the handicapper.

Both were compromised by trouble in the Gerry Feilden Hurdle at Newbury where Thyme White was hampered and unseated Harry Cobden while Milkwood was stopped in his tracks in the same incident before finishing best of all. My position on that is that Milkwood would have won with a clear run, while Thyme White would not have been too far away, both seemingly travelling better than winner Floressa at the time.

Since that race in November, both were rested until the Betfair Hurdle over the same course and distance, and both travelled well until fading from the last hurdle as if the run was needed. To continue the parallel, both ran in the County Hurdle, with Milkwood doing much the best in third.

I’m not convinced that Thyme White was suited by either track or extended trip at Cheltenham, and am prepared to give him a chance to reverse form with Milkwood with the latter now 4lb worse off.

Spring target

The sharp two mile and expected quick ground here will be ideal for Thyme White, and trainer Paul Nicholls stated this race was his main spring target, seeming to see the County as nothing more than a stepping stone.

3.35 Coral Scottish Grand National Handicap Chase (Grade 3) 3m 7f 176yds

Rain is not due to arrive until Sunday night, but an eye must be kept on the weather.

There are plenty to consider, with Mighty Thunder and Highland Hunter respected on what they showed in the Midlands National, and the slight drop in trip will suit both on that evidence, while the gallant Aye Right is sure to have his supporters again.

Alan King’s Notachance is easily forgiven his latest effort in Haydock’s Grand National Trial when found to be lame, and he had previously beaten the Haydock runner-up Achille when winning Warwick’s Classic Chase in the style of a progressive stayer.

He could be overpriced as a result, but the narrow vote goes to the ex-King runner Dingo Dollar, who was right back to his best starting out for Sandy Thompson at Newcastle last time, and had looked an ideal type for this earlier in his career. He was placed at this meeting as a novice, when coping well with the tricky fences, and having lost his way to some degree for his former yard, he showed that all the old ability remains when fitted with a tongue tie on debut for Thompson last time.

He remains fairly treated on the form he showed when third in the Ladbrokes Trophy as a mere six-year-old, and despite going back up in the weights for Newcastle, he’s still 3lb lower that he was at Newbury, when a place behind the subsequent Welsh Grand National winner Elegant Escape.

Recommended

Deja 1.35 Newbury – 1pt win @ 7/2

Isabella Giles 2.10 Newbury –

1pt win @ 6/1

Troll Peninsula 3.20 Newbury –

1pt e/w @ 5/1

Thyme White 2.25 Ayr –

1pt win @ 13/2

Dingo Dollar 3.35 Ayr –

1pt e/w @ 9/1

Winner

Rory tipped 5/4 favourite My Drogo at Aintree last week