Newbury Saturday

2.05 Best Odds Guaranteed At BetVictor Novices’ Handicap Hurdle 2m 2f 183y

It’s not hard to have reservations about a few of those towards the top of the market, with Alexei unexposed but harshly handicapped if his latest effort up in class is a guide, Calimystic’s Doncaster form not really working out. Beau Quali isn’t improving and is finding winning hard, and Glynn Brae’s tendency to jump right will surely be exposed in the toughest race he’s contested, so the one who makes most appeal is Norn Iron for the resurgent Harry Derham stable.

Norn Iron has been shaping as if further would suit kept to the minimum trip over hurdles and he again did his best work late, when four lengths fourth of 10 to Cavern Club from his current mark at Doncaster last time. He gets an extra quarter-mile to tackle today and looks sure to benefit from the increased emphasis on stamina. Glynn Brae should lead and I doubt he’ll be allowed an easy time in front, and that should ensure a true pace which the selection needs.

Serious Challenge is feared most bearing in mind his very useful form on the flat for Jim Bolger and, while he has won on deeper ground on his last two starts, the return to spring ground at this trip won’t be a problem. Jackpot Des Bordes has probably been saved with a spring campaign in mind, and he could take a big step forward with cheekpieces tried for the first time.

2.40 BetVictor Home Of The Saturday Superboost Handicap Chase 2m 3f 187y

Saint Segal is very well-suited by this sort of test and is a solid favourite in an otherwise open race. He looks a much-improved performer since he’s been allowed to bowl along in front, winning easily here in December and losing nothing in defeat to Booster Bob and Vincenzo in the Greatwood Gold Cup here last time out, trading 1.30 in the run before tiring late, after getting into a battle with the runner-up. He can compete off the same mark here and looks the one to beat with a repeat of that excellent effort.

Theatre Man is undoubtedly well-handicapped if a break and wind surgery has turned him around, as he’s 2lb lower than when second to Ginny’s Destiny in the 2024 Timeform Novices’ Handicap Chase, a run that saw him go off favourite for the Plate at the Festival that year; the concern is that trainer Richard Bandey has not really got going this season, with just four winners in the last 12 months. On the other hand, three of those have come from his last dozen runners over obstacles, so it could be argued that a corner has been turned, and that makes Theatre Man the most likely to spoil the script for Saint Segal.

3.15 British EBF NH Mares’ Novices’ Hurdle (Limited H’cap) (Grade 2) 2m 4f 118y

I always look out for an outsider from outside of the fashionable yards for this race, but I have to admit that Sióg Geal is not only a deserving favourite, but looks to have been given a very lenient rating to start out in handicaps; a point winner and useful bumper performer, she’s been crying out for a step up in trip, which she gets here, and should prove very hard to beat.

It’s very easy to forgive her defeat at Market Rasen last time, when runner-up to the 124-rated Bluey, but finishing further behind that rival than she had when a close fourth at Windsor on her penultimate start. The bottom line is that she wasn’t at her best at Market Rasen, but needed to run there in order to qualify for this race, which has presumably been her target since switching to hurdles in December. She is better judged on the Windsor form, and I expected her to get 4-5lb more from the handicapper given the winner there was rated 128, so cannot argue with her opening mark.

Best of the outsiders is likely to be Pismo Beach, who has been brought along very gradually in three starts for Stuart Edmunds, improving with each start, while giving the impression there is a bigger effort in her. Edmunds does very well with NH-bred mares and he has also managed to wangle an attractive mark for the daughter of Pour Moi, on whom I’ve had a saver.

Kelso Saturday

2.25 Ladbrokes Go North Cab On Target H’cap Hurdle (Series Final) 2m 4f 189y

Both the televised handicap hurdles at Kelso look competitive (unlike the two chases), but I thought Sayva was overpriced given his style of running should be a big advantage at Kelso, and the son of Harzand shaped very well at the contrasting Carlisle last time, making most of the running before succumbing to the superior stamina of Coniston George.

The winner had plenty in his favour that day and was well-backed accordingly, so I thought Sayva deserved credit for running as well as he did on handicap debut. He seems fairly treated – if not exactly thrown-in – on that effort and can progress again at a track that suits forward-going sorts like him.

I Am Max is the most obvious danger, having run really well in a qualifier at Haydock last time, and this unexposed son of Vendangeur has improved with each of just four starts over hurdles, having also won his only bumper. He would benefit from the forecast rain, whereas I would prefer the ground not to deteriorate much more for Sayva. The amount of rain due to fall seems to change by the hour, but the latest forecast suggests that Kelso won’t get a deluge.

3.00 Ladbrokes Herring Queen Series Final Mares’ Novices’ H’cap Hurdle 2m 51y

She would undoubtedly prefer further, but I can’t resist a small bet on Susan Crobett’s Sunset Hill at a big price. Sunset Hill was only fifth of six at Market Rasen two starts back, but shaped better than the result in a sprint finish that didn’t suit and wasn’t beaten far at all.

She would have gone close at Ayr last time, but it appeared that rider Nathan Moscrop dislocated his shoulder after she landed over the third-last flight, the jockey unable to offer any assistance thereafter and reporting a shoulder injury to the stewards. He’s not ridden since, but returns from that injury here and will be keen to make amends.

Recommended

Saint Segal 2.40 Newbury – 1pt win 4/1 (general)

Sióg Geal 3.15 Newbury – 2pts win 4/1 (Hills, 7/2 general)

Sayva 2.25 Kelso – 1pt e/w 14/1 (Bet365, Paddy Power – 5 places)

Sunset Hill 3.00 Kelso – 1pt e/w 25/1 (general – 4 places)