Kempton Saturday

1:50 Ladbrokes Pendil Novices’ Chase (Grade 2) 2m 4f 110y

This a meeting that Paul Nicholls targets particularly, and he has won the Pendil a record 13 times since 2006.

That will give Rubaud the look of a banker to many after his excellent run behind L’Eau du Sud at Warwick last time, but while Kempton clearly suits, the extra half mile is a definite worry, and I think he will prove vulnerable tackling this trip for the first time.

It’s true he stayed on well last time, but the finishing splits at Warwick underline the fact that the close finish had more to do with L’Eau du Sud tiring or idling in front than Rubaud finding the turbo late in the day.

I prefer the chances of the sound-jumping Imperial Saint, who made all to beat Richmond Lake at Aintree on St Stephen’s Day and travelled well under more patient tactics when a close third to Moon d’Orange at Cheltenham last time, finishing with running left up the hill. He wasn’t as good as Rubaud over hurdles, but jumps like an old hand and stays two and a half miles well, so I’d expect Micheal Nolan to give Harry Cobden on Rubaud no time to get a breather in, and that could make the difference.

2:25 Ladbrokes Adonis Juvenile Hurdle (Grade 2) 2m

The Adonis is a very tight-knit contest on ratings, but the potential standout is Monzo Man, who is a genuine Group 2 horse on the flat and looked to need the experience quite badly, when chasing home Lulamba at Ascot.

He needs to settle and jump better to go to the top over hurdles, but is likely to do so with experience, albeit not appealing as a bet at around 4/7.

If there is one here who is little overlooked, it’s St Pancras, who was behind Monzo Man on his hurdles bow at Ascot on softer ground than ideal, shaping better than the result.

There was no fluke about his win in the Listed Scottish Triumph Hurdle last time, despite an SP of 33/1, as he did well to overcome an awkward start (shied as tapes went up, having endured two false starts) to win with a bit in hand.

St Pancras was useful on the flat for Martyn Meade and cost current connections 95,000gns to go hurdling.

Out of the Lillie Langtry winner Pilaster, he’s not short of stamina, and is likely to prove best on good ground, according to trainer, Toby Lawes. There is more to come from him and, unlike some, this is his main target rather than Cheltenham, where he is not engaged.

3:00 Ladbrokes Dovecote

Novices’ Hurdle (Grade 2) 2m

There looks to be plenty of pace in the Dovecote, with half the field having made the running of late, and a well-run race will surely see Tripoli Flyer in a better light than when he won the Scottish Supreme at Musselburgh early in the month.

Tripoli Flyer impressed with the distance he put between himself and runner-up Cloonainra from the last to the line, despite that contest being run at a false gallop.

The selection didn’t settle well in the early stages, but still hit the line very hard, and I’d say the effort can be marked up appreciably. He clearly handles this sort of track well and should find enough improvement to go close, looking better value than Formby runner-up Miami Magic, who nonetheless looks the main threat on form.

3:35 Ladbrokes Trophy Handicap Chase 3m

Lowry’s Bar travelled better than Jingko Blue in the Grade 2 Hampton Novices’ Chase at Windsor last month, until making a mess of the third-last fence, which presented the race to the well-regarded winner, albeit with the runner-up rallying to be beaten just two and a quarter-lengths at the line.

That was just a confirmation of the promise the gelding had shown on previous chase starts, his previous effort being a beating of subsequent easy winner Le Milos over a shorter trip at Chepstow, where he looked very professional in making all.

Lowry’s Bar would have been a big fancy for the Reynoldstown last week at Ascot, but had to miss that contest with a minor setback. He has a run-style that suits the chase course at Kempton and is sure to go well, despite carrying the impost of top-weight.

This is a race in which Philip Hobbs has an excellent record, winning it with Dr Leunt, Gunther McBride, Farmer Jack and Quinz, with only the late Peter Cazalet able to match that record since the race was first run as the Coventry Chase in 1949.

It’s been hard to keep track of the sponsors since the Racing Post ended a long association with the race, and I can’t be alone in being annoyed that it’s now called the Ladbrokes Trophy, a name given to the old Hennessy Gold Cup only recently. It’s important that jump racing’s heritage handicaps have a particular identity, and the increasing habit of sponsorship switching between races makes this more difficult.

Newcastle Saturday

2:10 Virgin Bet Eider Handicap Chase 4m 1f 56y

Bodhisattva is a pretty moderate performer at three miles or shorter, but he’s suited by a test of stamina and has run his best races when racing over a distance of ground, improving on earlier efforts when third in last season’s Ulster National and again looking suited by the marathon trip, when second to the well-handicapped course specialist Magna Sam in the Edinburgh National on his most recent start.

John McConnell’s gelding can look hard work, but he was noted doing good late work to close the gap on the clear-cut Musselburgh winner, jumping the fourth-last fence around 20 lengths adrift in a share of fourth having got outpaced on the home turn, but stayed on strongly when others cried enough to halve that gap at the line.

This stiffer test will suit on that evidence and he will go close, if fully recovered from those exertions.

Imperial Saint 1:50 Kempton – 1pt win @ 5/2 (general)

Tripoli Flyer 3:00 Kempton – 1pt win @ 10/3 (general)

Lowry’s Bar 3:35 Kempton – 2pts win @ 11/2 (general)

Bodhisattva 2:10 Newcastle – 1pt e/w @ 16/1 (Bet365, Paddy Power – 5 places)

Rory’s headline tip last week was Pic D’orhy, winner at 9/5