ASCOT SATURDAY

2.15 LES AMBASSADEURS CASINO HANDICAP 1M 3F 211Y

There are very few draw biases which confound pundits like the one over this course and distance, which strongly favours those drawn high despite what logic would suggest. That’s good news for the unexposed Count Calabash, who shaped very well when making all at Kempton last time, and need not be inconvenienced by stall 14, as long as Charles Bishop doesn’t attempt to cut in toward the rail early. He raced freely at the Sunbury venue, but still rallied gamely to score and a small rise shouldn’t stop him on that evidence. Thundering Blue is also parked wide, but progressed really well last season and should pay his way again. He’s respected on this first try at the trip, as is Machine Learner, who has slipped in the weights, and tends to go best fresh.

4.00 TOTESCOOP6 VICTORIA CUP (HERITAGE HANDICAP) 7F

Firmament looks to have plenty to prove at first glance given he’s been well held on both starts this season, but David O’Meara’s charge saves all his best form for big-field handicaps these days, and I fancy a couple of prep runs were just what the doctor ordered before he was sent back to the track where he has run many of his best races. Firmament ended last season with three solid runs on soft ground at Ascot, but he is better served by a sound surface, and has a massive chance based on his placed efforts in similar races the previous season, finishing second in the Challenge Cup and third in the Balmoral Handicap off marks of 106 and 108 respectively. He was as good as ever last year and only bad luck stopped him adding to his tally. With the handicapper taking pity and dropping him 7lb since his final 2017 outing, and Danny Tudhope replacing an apprentice, he looks poised to bounce back, and can win at a juicy price.

LINGFIELD SATURDAY

1.55 BETFRED MOBILE OAKS TRIAL FILLIES’ STAKES (LISTED) 1M 3F 133Y

Aidan O’Brien has again shown his midas touch with classic prospects at Chester this week, and it was hard not to be impressed by Flattering when she beat the useful Samasthiti by 10 lengths in a Cork maiden last week, suggesting she was ready for a quick step up to pattern company. There are obvious worries, such as the quick turnaround, the suitability of this trip on pedigree, given she’s a half-sister to the Lowther winner Lucky Kristale, and the fact she was soundly beaten on quick going on debut before that heavy ground romp at Mallow. Such considerations would normally mean swerving her at around 11/8, but then again, such considerations don’t take account the genius of her trainer.

2.30 BETFRED DERBY TRIAL STAKES (LISTED) 1M 3F 133Y

O’Brien once again has the favourite in the shape of Zetland Stakes winner Kew Gardens, and the Galileo colt has clearly got the strongest form on offer on the basis of that success at Newmarket, which was also gained on quick ground. The Zetland is run over 10 furlongs, the longest trip juveniles are asked to run, and it’s not surprising that its roll call makes it read more like a St Leger Trial than a nursery for Epsom candidates. The 2007 winner Twice Over bucked the general trend by proving himself top class at a mile and a quarter, but it’s more likely to throw up pure stayers like St Leger winners Silver Patriarch and Bob’s Return as well as the doughty siblings Double Trigger and Double Eclipse. The question must be whether Kew Gardens has the speed to cope with Epsom, and while his position as favourite is justified here, he’s opposable in terms of price.

Corelli is hardly going to be a speed demon himself given he’s out of a mare who has produced a St Leger winner in Lucarno, but he promises to improve for a sound surface on pedigree and run-style, and he’s the choice to get the better of the market leader after a facile win at Yarmouth. His draw in stall nine will be viewed as a negative, but Lingfield has always favoured those drawn high at this trip for whatever reason, and John Gosden has left plenty to work on, presumably with another St Leger bid in mind later in the season.

Knight To Behold comes from a less fashionable yard, but the homebred comes from the same family of his owner’s St Leger winner Millenary and Let The Lion Roar, who was third in the 2004 Derby sporting these silks.

Harry Dunlop’s son of Sea The Stars won well at Newmarket in October, and is open to plenty of progress stepping up from a mile. It’s not easy to pick between him and Corelli, but the price makes my mind up.

HAYDOCK SATURDAY

2.00 PERTEMPS NETWORK LONG DISTANCE HANDICAP HURDLE 2M 6F 177Y

Tim Vaughan has had to be patient with the hugely promising Debece, a half-brother to top-class chaser Don Poli, and it would seem that he will be even better when tackling fences himself, but it’s significant that Vaughan has targeted this valuable prize with the son of Kayf Tara before considering novice chases and the hint should be taken. Debece was placed in Grade 1 company at Aintree last spring and returned from a year off to run a cracking race in the Grade 3 handicap hurdle won by Mr Big Shot on Grand National day. He weakened from the last hurdle there as if the race was needed, but in truth he probably finds an extended three miles just beyond him despite his pedigree, and this intermediate distance looks absolutely perfect for him. This is a valuable prize, but the majority of contestants are either fully exposed or struggling for form and Debece really does stand out like a sore thumb.

3.10 PERTEMPS NETWORK SWINTON HANDICAP HURDLE (GRADE 3) 1M 7F 144Y

I was very sweet on the chances of Chesterfield in the Scottish Champion Hurdle, and while he could only finish third, that was a mighty effort considering he made a bad mistake at the second flight when unsighted by another runner. That blunder put him on the back foot, but he still came through to hold every chance at the last flight, and remains at the top of his game.

There are quite a few here who have been in action over fences on recent starts, including last year’s second Optimus Prime, and while Dan Skelton’s runner will be popular, I’m not a fan of chasers reverting to the smaller obstacles at this track, where a premium is placed squarely on speed.

Of those returning for a repeat bid, the one who looks most interesting is William H Bonney, who was a big eyecatcher in the Greatwood Hurdle in November, but hasn’t gone on, perhaps lacking the stamina required for a slog on winter ground. He’s had a wind operation since failing to see things out in the County Hurdle at Cheltenham and that could help him. He’s out of the handicap, but is still 3lb lower than when a creditable sixth in this 12 months ago, and he’s shown on several occasions that he’s potentially well handicapped if only he can maintain his finishing effort.

Act Of Valour was a selection when fifth at Sandown’s season finale a fortnight ago, and while this is a stern test for a four-year-old against experienced handicappers, he shaped very well and will appreciate the sharper test afforded by this contest, so isn’t taken lightly with his stable really beginning to fire on all cylinders.

RECOMMENDED

DEBECE 2.00 Haydock – 2pts win @ 9/1 (bet365)

CHESTERFIELD 3.10 Haydock – 1pt win @ 7/1 (Hills, SkyBet, BetVictor)

WILLIAM H BONNEY 3.10 Haydock – 1pt win @ 20/1 (general)

FIRMAMENT 4.00 Ascot – 1.5pts e/w @ 25/1 (Hills, Corals)