Kelso Saturday
1:10 Bet365 Handicap Chase 2m 1f 14y
Real Stone has never won back-to-back races but can buck that trend in a race where he’s likely to be allowed to dominate.
Like many bold jumpers, his best form over fences has come when allowed to bowl along and he did so from before halfway at Wetherby last time, jumping better than his rivals and winning unchallenged.
Normally a rise in class would be enough to find the selection out, but this 0-135 is weak for the grade and his main market rival Helnwein is the only other horse rated higher than 125.
Helnwein is a danger on paper but was a little disappointing at Sandown last time when seeming to travel best only to finish out of the places. He tends to be held up in his races and that should allow Real Stone to steal a march.
1:45 Bet365 Premier Chase (Listed) 2m 7f 96y
A good race looks in prospect between Grey Dawning and Iroko, with both looking for confidence-boosting runs ahead of different targets at Aintree. Neither will have the kitchen sink thrown at them here, which makes betting fraught with danger.
Iroko has been looked after this season and remains unexposed at around three miles so gets a narrow vote despite being “wrong” at the weights against his main adversary.
2:20 Bet365 Handicap Hurdle
2m 4f 189y
Ace Of Spades is the obvious improver in this line-up and merits plenty of respect as such, but Fingal’s Hill is handicapped to play a big part, and the drop to around two and a half miles is in his favour having looked to fail for stamina when tried over three miles and further on more than one occasion.
Two starts ago over an extended two and three-quarter miles here, Fingal’s Hill held every chance two out and looked sure to hit the places even once losing the lead coming to the last, but so quickly did his stamina ebb away late that he ended up finishing fifth.
It was a similar tale over further at Catterick last time, with the three miles one and a half furlongs proving just a touch too far and again shaping like a drop back in trip would suit.
Fingal’s Hill won four handicap hurdles on the bounce in 2023, with all those runs coming between two and two and a half miles.
He climbed the handicap ladder as a result of that productive spell, and has been hard to place since, but the handicapper has cut him some slack this season, and he is now lower in the weights than for his last two wins.
Owner/trainer Peter Atkinson has done well with limited runners over the years and Fingal’s Hill, who is out of a half-sister to Challow Hurdle winner Fingal Bay, is capable of going very well at a price here.
2:55 Bet365 Premier Novices’ Hurdle (Grade 2) 2m 2f 25y
I suspect that time will prove that Listentoyourheart faced a stiff task trying to concede 5lb to Jubilee Alpha and Hollygrove Cha Cha at Taunton in December and she looks the value in a wide-open Premier Novices’ Hurdle.
Listentoyourheart had Jubilee Alpha just behind her when winning at Newbury on her penultimate start but couldn’t maintain her superiority over that rival at Taunton on worse terms, and that will lead many to believe that she’s vulnerable.
That she may be, but Jubilee Alpha was an impressive winner at Windsor next time and is a fairly short price to win the Dawn Run Novices at Cheltenham, while Hollygrove Cha Cha went on to win the Grade 2 Jane Seymour Hurdle on her next start.
Having backed Jubilee Alpha for Cheltenham, I’m indirectly invested in Listentoyourheart here, but she looks a solid each-way bet given the shape of this race and can give backers something to cheer about.
3:30 Bet365 Morebattle Hurdle 2m 51y
The key to Tellherthename appears to be keeping him away from heavy ground as his only poor efforts have come when the ground has been testing, but on soft or better going he has some eye-catching form, with his form from last season looking stronger in retrospect, and he will take some beating if reproducing it.
He all but beat Jango Baie on his British debut at Ascot and followed that with a 14-length thumping of Lucky Place at Huntingdon, both classy efforts.
He lost his action in the Formby at Aintree on his next start and unsurprisingly found the Supreme a step too far after that, albeit far from disgraced in being beaten around 15 lengths by Slade Steel on ground which had deteriorated badly. Tellherthename returned to action in the Fighting Fifth, having moved from Ben Pauling to AJ and Jonjo O’Neill, and ran right up to his best to finish fourth to Sir Gino in a solid time for the conditions.
Connections haven’t made any secret of the fact they have targeted the valuable bonus on offer for any horse who wins Morebattle and goes on to score at the Cheltenham Festival, and they have kept him off the track since December in a bid to protect a potentially lenient mark.
Newbury Saturday
3:45 BetVictor Greatwood Gold Cup Handicap Chase 2m 3f 187y
There are a couple of interest in the valuable Greatwood Gold Cup and one outsider who merits a mention on past glories.
Billytherealbigred and Vincenzo are the pair who make most appeal among the market leaders, with the former winning his first two chase starts and losing nothing in defeat to his classy stablemate Jagwar at Cheltenham last time. Billytherealbigred had jumped really well on the front end to that point and a similar showing here clearly gives this unexposed sort every chance.
Another that’s thrived since going over fences is Vincenzo. Connections had always thought a bit of him and he’s developed along similar lines to last week’s impressive Ladbrokes Trophy winner Katate Dori in that both looked really good prospects in bumpers before threatening to stall over hurdles.
The switch to chasing, however, has seen the pair really flourish, and Vincenzo has chalked up ready wins at Windsor and Sandown on his last two starts. He has yet to prove himself over this trip, but recovered from a mistake that would have stopped plenty in their tracks at Sandown last time, and his strength at the finish bearing in mind his lost momentum suggests he will stay further.
Sam Thomas has really hit form with a vengeance in the past couple of weeks, all of which bodes well for his chances here.
Paint The Dream won this by 15 lengths off a mark of 147 as a younger horse and underscored his liking for the venue by defying a mark of 154 by no less than 14 lengths the following season, when also third in this contest from an even higher mark.
The glory days are behind him at the age of 11, but three runs this season have come away from his favoured track and may well have been needed to get him somewhere near peak fitness on the back of a lengthy absence.
If there is one last hurrah in the old boy, it’s likely to come here, and he’s not one to cast aside if the price is right, his rating having tumbled from a high of 160 to 135 now.
Fingal’s Hill 2:20 Kelso – 1pt e/w 14/1 (general)
Listentoyourheart 2:55 Kelso – 1pt e/w 15/2 (general)
Tellherthename 3:30 Kelso – 2pts win 9/2 (Bet365, 4/1 general)
Vincenzo 3:45 Newbury – 1pt win 8/1 (Bet365, Hills)
Paint The Dream 3:45 Newbury – 1pt e/w 16/1 (general – 5 places)