Sandown Saturday

1.50 EBF ‘National Hunt’

Novices’ Handicap Hurdle Final 2m 3f 173y

There are plenty to consider in the EBF Final, and it’s hard to narrow the shortlist. There are a few who look overpriced, however, starting with Silver Thorn,who has the same chance as the well-touted Belliano on paper, but is three or four times the price. Silver Thorn travelled just as well as Belliano at Market Rasen last time and looked a big threat when making an error at the penultimate flight.

He recovered well enough to finishing just over three lengths behind the winner and is now 7lb better off, as they step into handicaps, and he appeals as value on that basis.

As a hold-up performer, Silver Thorn should also be better suited by the likely strong pace in this contest and, if I’m backing one each-way at Sandown, I’d rather have one finishing strongly from off the pace, as opposed to trying to cling on after racing prominently. Others I think can improve and make some appeal at the odds are Followcato and Malinificent, the former better than the result after racing inefficiently at Wetherby last time and the latter having a stout pedigree, but kept to 2m for all his qualifying runs. I suppose the trifecta is out of the question?

2.25 Betfair Imperial Cup

Handicap Hurdle 1m 7f 216y

Once again, I’m taking the coward’s way out in the Imperial Cup by trying to find a horse capable of picking up the pieces in a well-run race, with the possibility of winning merely a bonus.

Hardy Du Seuil is the horse who looks overpriced to hit the frame and has plenty going for him, accepting the fact that he’s fully exposed as a handicapper.

Jamie Snowden’s gelding is fairly handicapped, having been dropped for a solid fifth of 14 to Secret Squirrel at Windsor last time, a race where he met some trouble before staying on nicely after the last to be beaten by less than three lengths.

He is at his best away from very testing ground, and his record on soft or better ground in Class 2/3 company over two miles reads F1225122325, improving to 1132 on right-handed tracks.

Hardy Du Seuil was seventh of 16 in this race a couple of years ago on unsuitably heavy ground, having won over course and distance on his previous outing. He has been a victim of his own consistency since, but the handicapper has given him a chance and Will Featherstone can again claim 7lb off his back, meaning he’s effectively running off a mark 2lb lower than for his course and distance win in January 2023.

Last year’s winner, Go Dante, is another to have slipped down to a workable mark and he appeals as the type to bounce back to his best at a track that suits. He rates the alternative wager in a competitive race.

3.35 Best Odds On The Betfair Exchange Handicap Chase 3m 37y

Few of these can be trusted to give their best at present, and it may pay to take a chance on Hubrisko at a big price.

A winner for Willie Mullins last season over fences, he’s yet to hit the same form for Harry Derham, but his first two runs came when the Derham stable was struggling due to flooding issues, which effectively destroyed the gallops, and he took quite a big step forward when fourth in a competitive handicap at Musselburgh last time, jumping notably well in front and travelling strongly until finding no extra from between the last two fences.

Perhaps he doesn’t truly stay this trip, but it’s possible that he was still just in need of that run, and he is now on a tempting mark.

2.45 BetMGM Lincoln Trial Handicap 1m 143y

Whip Cracker makes plenty of appeal in the Lincoln Trial, having run a cracker on last year’s seasonal bow to prove he can go well fresh. On that occasion, he was an excellent second to Jayarebe in the Feilden Stakes at Newmarket, finishing ahead of Derby runner-up Ambiente Friendly.

The winner scored twice in group company subsequently to give the form a solid look, but Whip Cracker failed to stay a mile and a quarter on a couple of subsequent starts, ending the season with a creditable effort on heavy ground at Goodwood in the autumn over a mile.

Richard Hughes’s four-year-old remains open to improvement, having earned a lofty initial rating of 101 for his Feilden run.

He’s now dropped to 97 and, while he coped quite well with testing turf on his final two starts, he seems ideally suited by faster ground and/or an artificial surface, having gained his sole win to date at Chelmsford. He should be ready to fire on this return to action and is well-drawn towards the inner, in a race where a few of the likelier types have fared less well with the draw.

3.20 BetMGM Lady

Wulfruna Stakes (Listed) 7f 36y

The return to seven furlongs is certainly an unknown, and he does need to bounce back after a couple of below-par efforts late last year, but the best form on offer in this listed contest is that shown by Willem Twee when a fast-finishing third to Montassib and Kinross in the Group 3 Chipchase Stakes at Newcastle in June.

He backed that up when defying a mark of 106 in a six-furlong handicap here on his next start, and a return to that sort of form would see him hard to beat.

I wondered whether Willem Twee might need the run here, but a quick look at James Fanshawe’s current form allays any doubts on that score. In the last three weeks, the form figures of runners from the Fanshawe yard have been 101151, with the one blip being a well-related filly having her final qualifying run before getting a handicap mark.

All seems rosy at Pegasus Stables, then, and Willem Twee is worth chancing at a big price, despite a lingering doubt about the distance.

Silver Thorn 1.50 Sandown – 1pt e/w 18/1 (Bet365, Hills – 5 pl) 25/1 general

Hardy Du Seuil 2.25 Sandown – 1pt e/w 28/1 (Bet365, Hills – 5 pl) 25/1 general

Whip Cracker 2.45 Wolverhampton – 1pt win 7/1 (Bet365, 13/2 Hills)

Willem Twee 3.20 Wolverhampton – 1pt win 9/1 (general)