Kempton Saturday
1:50 Close Brothers Pendil Novices’ Chase (Grade 2) 2m4f110y
A small field, as is the norm, for the Pendil, but an intriguing puzzle, especially as the top-rated runner, Tamaroc Du Mathan is far from certain to stay this extended trip.
The Wayward Lad runner-up ran at a similar trip over hurdles here in March and travelled best of all until the penultimate flight, but he did not get home, and faded late to finish seventh. He would be hard to beat over two miles based on what he showed when chasing Shishkin home here last time, but his rider will do well to nurse him home over this trip.
Son Of Camas is a short runner who has never looked to stay this far, and it may be that Ga Law and Coole Cody set off in front and have the finish to themselves. There is little to choose between them on form, although they have reached their ratings in different circumstances, with Ga Law making all top land a Grade 2 at Wincanton before finding the ground too soft in the Henry VIII when last seen.
Coole Cody made almost all to win the Paddy Power Gold Cup in November, and did too much too soon when trying to follow up in the Caspian Caviar.
He’s more exposed given he’s having his second stint over fences, and he’s twice the age of his rival, but he is surely overpriced in this contest.
It’s important to factor in possible improvement from Ga Law, who is afforded maximum respect, but the notion that age is against him implies that he may be unable to repeat past form; in terms of what this field have achieved recently at the trip, he scores highly, and that is the only pertinent concern.
2:25 Close Brothers Adonis Juvenile Hurdle (Grade 2) 2m
Tritonic is a horse I’ve always liked, and he is the right favourite for the Adonis, but there’s no way to claim he’s value at close to even-money based on what we know of all the runners. He did well to pick up Casa Loupi on his hurdles debut at Ascot, and he will improve for that, perhaps markedly, but a sharper test will also suit the runner-up, who outjumped Tritonic as a rule, and he should not be underestimated.
Honneur d’Ajonc would have beaten the highly regarded Heross Du Seuil here last time but for a late fall, although the winner failed to advertise the form when beaten at very short odds at Warwick on Friday.
The lack of a Triumph entry counts against the Paul Nicholls newcomer Paso Doble, while John Locke has not exactly garnered support for the Cheltenham contest, so is probably best watched on his hurdles bow. One who has obvious claims, but is languishing down the odds ladder is Margaret’s Legacy.
Trained in southern France by Hugo Merienne, he had just one race on the flat, and has been impressive in landing both starts over hurdles at Cagnes-sur-Mer. The pair who chased him home then finished first and second in the regional championship contest for juveniles, a listed contest in which seven of the nine runners had won their previous starts.
The strength of that form depends on the overall depth of talent in France, but history suggests it’s pretty smart, and Merienne trained a similar type in Rockadenn, who won several times in France last year before finishing second in the Victor Ludorum at Haydock.
Margaret’s Legacy has made all and jumped slickly for his French wins, and while he might be better on soft ground, that’s far from certain, and he appears to have achieved at least as much as the favourite has in this discipline.
As such, quotes of 12/1 seem generous, and he’s worthy of an each-way investment.
3:00 Sky Bet Dovecote Novices’ Hurdle (Grade 2) 2m
Atholl Street gets a lukewarm vote in a Dovecote which perhaps isn’t a betting race. The son of Jeremy has come from bumpers, and looked very green when winning on his hurdles debut at Taunton.
He stepped up markedly on that bare form when scoring under a penalty at the same track last time, and while this is a step up in class, he seems the type to improve as he learns on the job, and his style of racing suits this venue.
The return to a right-handed track will suit Cape Gentleman, and he is clearly a lot better than he showed in the Golden Cygnet Hurdle at Leopardstown last time. The combination of the trip at a track he didn’t really act on counted against him, and he’s better judged on his Punchestown success prior to that.
I can’t rule him out, and it’s not easy to dismiss either Lunar Sovereign or Calico, so I feel this will be a race to watch and learn from.
3:35 Close Brothers Handicap Chase (Grade 3) 3m
There would not appear to be any handicap blot in this contest, and the way to approach it is to filter the form of the runners through the prism of trip and ground.
Many of the runners are stretching out to three miles, and a few would be better on softer ground, and I’m inclined to side with those who have been waiting for good ground and will cope with track and trip.
Top of that list is Fingerontheswitch, who won over the course and distance last January under Millie Wonnacott, and the pair were well clear when beaten narrowly from this mark in the Skybet Chase at Doncaster next time. He’s not had his ground since, and is quickly back to his Doncaster mark.
Wonnacott is a very impressive rider over fences, and her overall record is six wins from 24 rides over the bigger obstacles, with punters shelling out a tenner on her mounts now up to the tune of £478.30 at SP.
Her handling of the tricky Fingerontheswitch last season was exemplary, and the pair will again be ideally suited by stalking a strong pace, making them look an excellent each-way bet off bottom weight.
Newcastle Saturday
3:15 Vertem Eider Handicap Chase 4m 1f 56y
The Eider is not a strong event this year, but does make appeal from an each-way perspective, with a couple of runners in the doldrums and one several stone out of the weights. Still the firms are offering extra places for each-way punters, and the one who fits the bill as a sound jumper who will be suited by the trip is David Bridgwater’s Salty Boy.
The Stowaway gelding has run creditably on all starts for this yard having been with Cormac Farrell, but has been undone by a lack of tactical pace. That won’t be a problem here, and this sound jumper also has no weight to carry, so could almost hit the frame by default.
He remains capable of better than he’s shown for Bridgwater, the step up to three and a half miles at Plumpton last time negated by the farcical pace of the Sussex National, and the greater test of stamina can see an improved effort here.
He is in receipt of a stone or more from all his main rivals on form, and that could well be the deciding factor in a race where weight can take a toll.
Coole Cody 1:50 Kempton – 1pt win @ 11/2 (SkyBet, BetVictor)
Margaret’s Legacy 2:25 Kempton – 1pt e/w @ 12/1 (general)
Fingerontheswitch 3:35 Kempton – 1pt e/w @ 14/1 (Bet365, or 12/1 SkyBet – 6 places)
Salty Boy 3:15 Newcastle – 1pt e/w @ 13/2 (Boyles, Betway, BetFred – 4 places)