Cheltenham Saturday
1:50 Caspian Caviar Gold Cup Handicap Chase (Grade 3) 2m4f127y
Regular readers will be aware that I’m a big fan of Cepage, and I backed the Venetia Williams runner for the Festival Plate after his course-and-distance win in January.
Unfortunately, the trainer decided that the Cheltenham Festival was the time to experiment with a new trip, and he was unplaced in the Ultima over 3m 1f having jumped and travelled best until his stamina gave out from the home turn. I expect to see him back on track here, and he has found only the top-class pair Frodon (in this race) and Riders Onthe Storm too good on his last two seasonal reappearances having won on his debut for the yard after another break.
His liking for course, distance, ground allied to his record fresh suggests he will be hard to beat here despite his big weight. He is one of the best jumpers of a Cheltenham fence I’ve ever seen, and that is not hyperbole.
2:25 Albert Bartlett Novices’ Hurdle (Bristol) (Grade 2) 2m7f213y
I had in in my mind to look for each-way value against the likely short-priced favourite in this contest, only to find that the favourite isn’t so short after all, and the big-priced alternatives aren’t particularly big prices.
A rethink is required, and while I will probably wait until post time to have an each-way bet (never a great idea parting with your cash early when there are only eight declared), but the case for Ashtown Lad is fairly compelling at the odds, and he deserves to head the market even though the handicapper rated him just 123 going into Uttoxeter on his latest start.
That sort of rating should not be enough to win a race of this nature, but he proved how wrong it was by laughing at handicap rivals at the Staffordshore track, winning by seven and a half lengths and 11 from those good yardsticks Duc De Beauchene and Sirobbie.
Margins can sometimes be deceptive in soft-ground events, but Ashtown Lad moved up on the bridle to challenge at Uttoxeter, and it’s impossible to conclude that he is much better than his opening mark.
Of course, others in here have an opportunity to post improved efforts as he did there, and it’s never easy to be adamant about the pecking order with novices, but the selection has proven himself against established handicappers, which gives real solidity to his form, and he ought to be a little shorter in the betting on that basis.
3:00 Unibet International Hurdle (Grade 2) 2m 179y
It would be great to see some credible challengers appear on the Champion Hurdle scene, and the spotlight will be on Goshen and Song For Someone here as a pair who are young and open to progress.
The former would have won the Triumph Hurdle by a wide margin over course and distance in March, but he was very precocious last term, has had one or two setbacks since, and failed to progress as expected in a couple of flat runs this autumn.
It sounds like Gary Moore hasn’t been entirely happy with him, taking him out of a couple of earlier openings this season, but the vibes are more positive now, and with the ground looking soft enough on Friday, this is very much his chance to prove himself a genuine contender.
Those sentiments apply equally to Song For Someone, however, and I like the way he has been brought along steadily by Tom Symonds. He impressed me in defeat at Ascot last season before coping with the drop to a bare two-mile when landing the rerouted Kingwell Hurdle, and while he had the run of things when beating Call Me Lord in the Ascot Hurdle on his return, he again reminded me what a fast and fluent jumper he is.
The argument against him that he isn’t an out-and-out two-miler is a nonsense disproved by a look at the Champion Hurdle roll of honour. That great race doesn’t tend to go to horses who aren’t fully effective over farther, so I tend to view Song For Someone’s background over two and a half miles as a positive, especially as he’s a horse who wins his races at that trip with superior speed over and between his hurdles.
The horse he beat at Ascot last time won this race a year ago, and although Song For Someone is untried at Cheltenham, but he’s won at tracks like Fakenham, Warwick and Fontwell as well as Ascot, and I’d be stunned if the track is any issue to him.
He remains a horse to be excited about, and I think he’s worth backing for the Champion Hurdle as well as for this race, as he has the scope to shorten up markedly if running as expected.
Doncaster Saturday
2:05 Bet365 December Novices’ Chase (Grade 2) 2m7f214y
This contest, originally run at a Lingfield fixture which too often fell foul of the weather, has produced some good winners, but not on a regular basis, and I doubt whether the four who will head to post will reach superstar status as chasers. That may be a little harsh on Ofalltheginjoints, who has always been held in very high regard, and he seemed to win with a fair bit to spare at Exeter last time.
Ofalltheginjoints appeared to idle in front there, but it’s a slight concern that he’s often travelled more strongly than he’s finished in his races so far, for all that might be a sign of immaturity.
He appeals as the likeliest winner here, but I’d be wary of backing him at a very short price, and while Colin Tizzard has had a couple of winners in the past week, both were odds-on shots and have come with 23 losers, suggesting that the yard is not yet firing on all cylinders.
3:15 Bet365 Handicap Chase 2m7f214y
There was an unholy rush to back Give Me A Copper for the Ultima at the Cheltenham Festival in 2019 on the back of bullish comments from Paul Nicholls at a media day prior to that meeting, but the horse lacked the experience to make the most of what Nicholls saw as a lenient handicap mark.
He ran very well on his next two starts, the latter being victory in the Badger Ales at Wincanton on his seasonal return last November.
He flopped when turned out quickly at Ascot, but has since had his breathing tweaked, and he is only 1lb higher than he was for that infamous Cheltenham plunge.
His trainer will surely have had this race as a primary target for some time, and given his obvious fragility, he can be expected to be fully tuned. He has a class edge over many of his rivals here, is built to carry big weights, and appears to have plenty in his favour.
Recommended
Cepage 1:50 Cheltenham – 1pt win at 7/1 (general)
Song For Someone 3:00 Cheltenham – 2pts win at 6/1 (BetVictor, 11/2 general)
Give Me A Copper 3:15 Doncaster – 2pts win at 15/2 (BetVictor, BetFred, etc)
Also:
Champion Hurdle ante-post
Song For Someone – 1pt win
@ 33/1 (Hills, Unibet)