Ascot Saturday

1:15 Matchbook Betting Podcast Mares’ Hurdle (Grade 2) 2m7f118y

There is a trio of mares with a fair chance on ratings here, although many will simply view it as a clash between Roksana and Magic Of Light, who has won this contest for the past two years.

It’s true that Roksana is a clear pick on handicap ratings, but Magic Of Light is a truly remarkable mare who ran a huge race to be second in the 2019 Grand National despite making two of the worst mistakes I’ve seen at Aintree, and she is at least as effective over hurdles, as she’s shown in recent seasons.

She was a rather laboured winner over fences at Newbury last year before taking this (her main rival fell when travelling well, and the only other finisher burst badly, so the official 99-length margin of victory is grossly flattering), and looked on much better terms with herself when taking the corresponding event this time around, and that augurs well for her showing her best form here.

That might be good enough against an in-form Roksana, but it’s worth noting that Dan Skelton’s mare has gained all five of her wins at left-handed tracks, and while she ran to form when third in the Long Walk Hurdle, she failed to meet expectations in two previous starts this way around.

1:50 Matchbook Holloway’s Handicap Hurdle (Grade 3) 2m3f58y

There are too many horses with form claims here to make a confident case, but there are several who ran in the Betfair Exchange Handicap Hurdle here in December over two miles who will be seen to better effect at this trip, notably Lightly Squeeze and Arrivederci. The latter was napped in that contest but made an early error and found it hard to keep tabs on the leaders thereafter.

Comments made about Arrivederci’s previous efforts this season then still remain valid, but his price is not compelling in the circumstances.

Lightly Squeeze, who was over 20 lengths ahead of Arrivederci in December, was also unsuited by the trip, and should relish the step up, whereas he’s only a point or so shorter than Arrivederci here, which seems an over-compensation.

I’d also give Botox Has, a place behind Jonjo’s runner in the December contest, a chance on much softer ground, and he’s almost three times that one’s price.

3:00 Bet365 Handicap Chase 2m5f8y

I’ve had a small interest in last year’s winner Domaine De L’Isle here, as he can be excused a couple of his defeats this season, and the return to this track on deep ground should help, but he’s still something of a shot in the dark and was a bigger price in midweek.

Looking at the race again, I’ve started coming around to the claims of Jerrysback, having initially shelved him given he’s yet to run well fresh. There are two reasons I think that simple analysis is flawed, the first being that he’s only had a couple of runs after a lengthy break, and neither of those was likely to see him to best effect.

Secondly, he’s in no way being rushed back to the track having been slated to run at Cheltenham on New Year’s Day, and another few weeks’ home work should help put an edge on his fitness.

Jerrysback was third in the National Hunt Chase at Cheltenham as a novice in 2019, but he could hardly be said to have stayed the trip in that notorious contest, and his best effort came when second in a Grade 2 novice over this course and distance behind Vinndication.

That form makes him look well treated here, and in the expectation that he will be more forward this time around, he is given the nod in a race where well handicapped runners are in short supply.

3:35 Matchbook Exchange Clarence House Chase (Grade 1) 2m167y

Politologue is the obvious favourite as he attempts to gain a third straight Grade 1, but he was twice beaten by Defi Du Seuil last season before that rival flopped in the Champion Chase, and the gap between the pair in the betting ought to be much smaller than it is as a result.

Defi Du Seuil obviously has a bit to prove after pulling up in the Shloer Chase at Cheltenham in November, but I thought he didn’t run as badly as that suggests, and Richard Johnson was keen to look after him when he got tired. He’s also bigger in the betting that Waiting Patiently despite beating that rival in last year’s Tingle Creek.

He’s since had a full health check and a break, and was described as “bouncing” by Johnson earlier in the week. The worrying thing about Defi Du Seuil is that his poor runs have come without reason, but he’s also shrugged off disappointments in the past, and he was an impressive winner from Un De Sceaux in this race last year.

Philip Hobbs has had a fairly quiet winter by his standards, but a double at Newbury on Tuesday suggests that the tide is turning for the Minehead handler, and his stable star looks overpriced.

Haydock Saturday

2:40 Peter Marsh Handicap Chase (Grade 2) 3m1f125y

I started off quite keen to take Royal Pagaille on here, but while I reckon he’s flattered by his margin of victory at Kempton last time, he was still a worthy winner, and he’s found a remarkably uncompetitive renewal of the Peter Marsh in which to test his new mark.

The one other horse who appeals as capable of showing smart form in the conditions is Sam Brown, who was sent off favourite for the Reynoldstown Chase just under a year ago only to get lost in desperate conditions at Ascot.

He looked as good as ever when a close third to Imperial Aura at Carlisle on his only start this season, and while the fitting of a tongue tie raises a small note of alarm, I’ve noticed that Anthony Honeyball is utilising the aid more often, and with a degree of success.

He’s hardly rock-solid given he’s clearly been fragile, but he’s a Grade 2 winner getting weight from a horse who may be better than a handicapper, but hasn’t conclusively proven that point.

3:15 The New One Unibet Hurdle (Grade 2) 1m7f144y

Buveur D’Air is a steering job based on old form, and in receipt of weight due to the conditions, but while he may be the subject of glowing reports from the gallops, it’s never easy for a horse of his age to recapture former glories, and working out to what extent he may have deteriorated is impossible.

He won’t be punished if the old spark isn’t there, so the Ballyandy/Navajo Pass forecast isn’t the daftest bet.

Recommended

Jerrysback 3:00 Ascot – 1pt win @ 12/1 (general)

Defi Du Seuil 3:35 Ascot – 2pts win @ 9/2 (Paddy Power, Hills, BetVictor)