THE finishing touches are being applied to horses who are being targeted at the Cheltenham Festival and some of their performances last week provide us with interesting data.

Cheltenham staged a star-studded card last Saturday and according to available data, the performance of Lossiemouth raises the legitimate question as to whether the Champion Hurdle at the Cheltenham Festival would be a better option for her rather than the Mares’ Hurdle over half a mile further.

This was a performance that was visually impressive with Lossiemouth winning by nine and a half lengths without coming off the bridle.

The first 11 furlongs of the race were run at a modest gallop dictated by Rubaud. He set the tone with a steady opening furlong of 16.28s and he dawdled mid-race through the fifth furlong in 16.89s the sixth in 16.35s and an eighth of 16.39s. This steady gallop meant that Lossiemouth was keen in fourth place, but this did not effect her finishing effort.

Further evidence of how steadily run this race was are the finishing efforts of all the runners. All of them recorded a finishing speed percentage (FSP) above 100% meaning that they all completed the final four furlongs faster than they ran the previous mile and a half. They are detailed below with Lossiemouth completing the last four furlongs 15.15% quicker than she ran the rest of the race.

All horses were clearly able to reserve energy due to the steady gallop and this enabled them to finish strongly, none more strongly than Lossiemouth. If we delve into how she achieved that FSP a look at her individual sectionals is revealing.

She came home through the final four furlongs in 52.66s with the runner-up recording 55.18s and the third 55.00s.

She was way too fast for her rivals in a display of brazen speed. For context, in the opening race Sir Gino who was equally as impressive did not finish off his race as quickly as Lossiemouth. A comparison is below.

Lossiemouth put the race to bed in the 15th and 16th furlongs with rapid splits of 12.78s and 12.77s. It is noted that Sir Gino only ducked under 13.00s for a furlong when in the 15th he posted 12.86s.

The sustained burst of speed that she showed having been keen early in the race is something we rarely see in the National Hunt game.

Not only is she a fast mare, she jumped better than her rivals. Race IQ Jumping data tells us that she gained 3.45 lengths on her rivals through her jumping with Love Envoi in second the next best in the race gaining 1.2 lengths.

That Lossiemouth was full of running going into the last hurdle is highlighted by a fast jump at the last where she gained 1.8 lengths which was a major contributor to her cumulative figure of 3.45 lengths gained.

This was a performance of brazen speed, one that suggests she would not be out of place in the Champion Hurdle. Speed is her main asset and were she to contest the Mares’ Hurdle over two and a half miles the worry is that she would be too keen and her speed would be blunted by that and the extra distance.

(Grade 2)

I have already touched on this horse’s speed in comparison to Lossiemouth. He too was able to quicken up well in a steadily run race recording an FSP of 112.68% meaning his final four furlongs were 12.68% faster than the previous furlongs. He is quoted at 6/4 for the Triumph Hurdle on the back of this, yet the data suggests he could have been more impressive and therefore perhaps shorter in the market if he had jumped better.

Sir Gino on his debut win at Kempton gained 3.61 lengths jumping on his rivals but at Cheltenham on Saturday he only gained 0.8 lengths jumping, whereas the second, Burdett Road, gained 2.42 lengths. If he jumps better in the Triumph Hurdle, he will be very hard to beat.

This was a quite strongly run with the first and second running evenly as evidenced by their finishing speed percentages.

These figures are interesting because they indicate that despite his errant jumping Jonbon ran the final four furlongs faster than Elixir De Nutz. If we break those percentages down, we find that the final four-furlong splits for both horses were as follows.

It is therefore easy to conclude that this race was all about the jumping and then Race IQ data starkly outlines that. Elixir De Nutz jumped well gaining 6.55 lengths through the race whereas Jonbon lost 6.55 lengths.

With just a neck between them at the line and Elixir De Nutz having been cumulatively 13.16 lengths better over his fences, it is clear that Jonbon need only have jumped a bit better to have won.

It is easy to blame the bad error he made at the 11th for his defeat. He lost 3.9 lengths at this fence but it should be noted that he jumped poorly throughout. Of the 14 fences jumped, Jonbon lost ground at 10 of them, making his task virtually impossible.

That Jonbon nearly won despite an atrocious round of jumping is testament to his ability. It remains to be seen if he can smarten up his act before Cheltenham.

Willie Mullins has had a tremendous week and while I was contemplating analysing the chance of Monkfish in the Stayers’ Hurdle, the data as regards his win in the Galmoy Hurdle reveals little more than that the race was run at a crawl and that it turned into little more than a three furlong sprint with Monkfish recording an FSP of 120.75% (a very high figure for National Hunt racing).

On the plus side, for a horse who has had his problems, he clearly didn’t have a hard race. just what his trainer would have wanted.

Instead, it is more informative to look at the Solerina Mares Novice Hurdle at Fairyhouse last Saturday.

This mare has won both her starts over hurdles for Willie Mullins and this Grade 3 success was one that suggested she is destined for the Mares’ Novice Hurdle at Cheltenham.

This was not a fiercely-run contest with the winner tracking the leaders and racing keenly on the back of a steady gallop. That steady early pace eased even more after the first six furlongs with Look To The West dictating the race through six consecutive 17.00s plus furlongs. It follows that the pace had to pick up at some point and it did quite a long way from home.

The leader upped the ante five furlongs out by posting a 15.95s furlong and thereafter Jade De Grugy took over with a 14.60s furlong followed by a 14.20s.

This increase of tempo had her rivals in trouble but the next furlong from the two-furlong pole to the one sealed the deal. She sprinted through that furlong posting 13.90s. From the point that she went to the front, she showed increasing speed that she was able to sustain. From 14.60 to 14.20 to 13.90s destroyed her rivals in three furlongs.

This meant she recorded a Finishing Speed Percentage of 112.42%, meaning she completed the final four furlongs 12.42% quicker than she ran the rest of the race. Most impressively, she was the only mare to dip under 14.00s in the penultimate furlong with that 13.90s split. The next best in the race was 14.39s.

A look at the Race IQ jumping data says she jumped fine gaining 1.9 lengths on her rivals through the race.

She is a very smart prospect.