THE Christmas period brought with it some tremendous action aligned to big crowds who peered through the fog at some established and future stars of the National Hunt game. A refreshing boost for the sport in difficult times.
This week, I look at some of the performances which garnered the most interesting data.
Forgive the omission of Galopin Des Champs, who was imperious in winning the Grade 1 Savills Chase at Leopardstown, although I will add that he recorded a career best Race IQ jump index score of 8.0, a tad disconcerting for Gold Cup aspirants that he may be getting better with age.
Beginning at Kempton with the success of Banbridge for Joseph O’Brien and Paul Townend, the Ladbrokes King George VI Chase over three miles on ground described as being ‘Good’ proved to be just what Banbridge needed, as he impressively landed the St Stephen’s Day showpiece.
There was much to admire from this performance, as he and Il Est Francais pulled well clear of their rivals. Make no mistake, this was a top-class effort from Banbridge, whose speed and slick jumping was allied to a patient and well-judged ride from Paul Townend.
Il Est Francais was given a superb front-running ride from James Reveley, who got the fractions absolutely spot on. This was not a case of the leader going off way too fast and then being vulnerable late on as he ran out of petrol. Il Est Francais recorded a Race IQ Finishing Speed Percentage (FSP) of 103.22%, telling us that he ran the final four furlongs 3.22% faster than the previous two and a half miles.
Given that he was not stopping, Banbridge, who was at a positional disadvantage, did well to run him down and, in so doing, he recorded an FSP of 107.44%.
This slightly faster finish from Banbridge is recorded in their respective final four-furlong splits.
King George Final Four Furlongs
1st: Banbridge: 57.36s
2nd: Il Est Francais: 57.99s
That Banbridge was able to run down a horse who was not stopping at the end of three miles is testament to his raw ability and he did not win because the runner-up let him in with some poor jumps. Both jumped much better than the rest of the field, Banbridge gaining 14 lengths and Il Est Francais 12.66 lengths.
If anything, Banbridge was slightly quicker and more efficient than Il Est Francais over his fences, with a Jump Index value of 8.1 compared to 7.6. He was certainly better than the runner-up at the last, where he lost less speed as his rival got in close to the fence and was awkward over it.
Final Fence Speed Loss
1st: Banbridge: -3.59mph
2nd: Il Est Francais: -5.79mph
There is no doubt that this momentum gained over the last gave Banbridge an advantage, as he was able to recover his speed much quicker.
Speed Recovery Time Final Fence
1st: Banbridge: 0.42s
2nd: Il Est Francais: 1.8s
This fence was important in terms of the winning margin (one and three-quarter lengths), but not in terms of the result, given the superior speed Banbridge showed up the home straight.
He was faster than Il Est Francais through each of the final four furlongs and was the only horse to dip under 15.00s in the final furlong (14.82s).
This test of speed over the three-mile trip really suited Banbridge and his chance in a Cheltenham Gold Cup is not obvious to see given that speed rather than stamina is his primary asset.
THE Grade 1 Ladbrokes Christmas Hurdle race was run at a decent pace, but wasn’t a flat-out gallop as evidenced by the first three home all recording Finishing Speed Percentages (FSP) a good bit above 100%.
1st Constititution Hill 105.90%
2nd Lossienouth 105.48%
3rd Burdett Road 102.48%
In the end, this turned out to be a straightforward return to action for Constitution Hill who easily saw off Lossiemouth with a typical display that suggests he is as good as ever.
Lossiemouth may not have been at her best, but a sharp two miles on decent ground seemed to show her wanting for speed.
The main takeaway from the data was just how fast over the hurdles Constitution Hill is and that was the key to his impressive success.
He hardly loses any speed through the jumping envelope. Lossiemouth, though a good jumper, was simply not as fast as him at the obstacles. On average, he lost 2.33mph at his hurdles, whereas Lossiemouth averaged a loss of 2.77mph. She was particularly slow over the first two hurdles losing three-quarters of a length on Constitution Hill at that early stage of the race.
Constitution Hill’s stellar career has been built upon his speed and fast jumping. His jump index scores for his last four races are outlined below compared to Lossiemouth. The scale is from 0-10.
Constitution Hill Race IQ Jump Index
Cheltenham March 2023: 9.1
Aintree April 2023: 8.9
Kempton December 2023: 9.1
Kempton December 2024: 8.8
Lossiemouth: Race IQ Jump Index
Cheltenham March 2024: 8.2
Punchestown May 2024: 7.5
Fairyhouse December 2024: 8.2
Kempton December 2024: 8.4
Those numbers tell us that Constitution Hill is quicker and more efficient over his hurdles than Lossiemouth and therein lies the dilemma for the Willie Mullins team.
THE eye told you all you needed to know about the spectacular performance by Sir Gino in winning the Grade 2 Ladbrokes Wayward Lad Novices Chase, but sometimes it’s worth using the data to confirm that your eyes were not deceiving you.
This race was evenly run with Sir Gino recording an FSP of 103.61%. That finishing percentage was made up of a final four furlongs of 55.68s, which was 1.79s faster than Ballyburn in second. Those numbers are not a true reflection of his domination given how easily he won.
His jumping was superb. He gained 14.54 lengths with his jumping over Ballyburn, who in two starts has looked far from a natural over the larger obstacles. He gained ground on the field at 11 of his 12 fences recording a jump index of 8.0, which compares to Ballyburn whose index was recorded as being 6.1. He is a bright talent and the rightful favourite for the Arkle.
As for Ballyburn, he needs to brush up his jumping. He may have won on his debut at Punchestown, but he was not quick or efficient at his fences recording a Race IQ jump index of 6.7, which is below the average of 7 to 7 and a half.
That he jumped slightly worse at Kempton dropped back to two miles suggests that a step back up in trip is needed, even so whatever the trip, he needs to jump much better.
REMORSELESS, relentless, remarkable!
Brighterdaysahead galloped her rivals into submission with a ruthless display in the Grade 1 Neville Hotels Hurdle.
There is little doubt she should have won the Mares Hurdle at Cheltenham last year had the race not turned into a three-furlong sprint off a very sedate gallop. There was no chance of a repeat here, as she set a searching gallop in front and never looked to be in any danger of defeat.
That strong gallop is evidenced by her FSP of 98.37% indicating that she was 98.63% slower in the final four furlongs than in the proceeding 12 furlongs.
She did not slow down as quickly as her rivals, who all found the gallop too much. Winter Fog in second recorded an FSP of 96.70% with a tired looking State Man even slower at 94.82%.
The data clearly outlines her superiority in terms of setting a strong gallop and finishing faster than her rivals. She also jumped best. She gained 6.35 lengths on the field over the nine hurdles with her closest pursuers putting in moderate rounds of jumping, losing -0.57 lengths and -1.65 lengths respectively.
State Man was an obvious disappointment. He was below form in a race that may not have suited him. It was the first time in seven starts that he encountered a fierce gallop and he came up short.
He jumped typically for him, recording a jump index of 7.4 compared to Brighterdaysahead at 8.5.
In essence, he is not a fluent jumper, his score when winning the Champion Hurdle in March was 7.5 and it’s hard to see him winning that race again on this evidence.
Brighterdaysahead looks set for the Mares Hurdle, but she would be a potent weapon forcing the gallop in a Champion Hurdle should connections opt to change course.
CARRIGMORNASPRUCE did well to win a steadily run Plusvital INH Flat Race, the final bumper at Leopardstown, having been held up in rear while keen and allowing Sortudo (second) to get first run.
She won because of her speed, which was also the case when she had won at Naas on her previous start. In producing a penultimate furlong of 12.69s, she recorded the fastest furlong of the four-day meeting.
The data shows that for both of her wins, she quickened smartly. At Naas, she recorded a penultimate furlong of 11.89s and this contributed to an FSP of 123.02%. On this occasion, she also finished fast with a penultimate furlong of 12.69s and an FSP of 111.17%.
This recent effort is more meritorious given that the runner-up, who had bolted up on her previous start, was not stopping in front, recording an FSP of 108.49%.
In surging from fourth to first, the winner was 1.02s faster than the runner-up, displaying a smart turn of foot for a horse in this sphere. She looks sure to go on to much better things in this sphere or over hurdles, particularly when the emphasis is on speed.
THE New Lion is unbeaten in four starts after his impressive success in the Coral Challow Novices Hurdle at Newbury. He cruised through this race to win a Grade 1 on just his third start.
On all his three runs over hurdles, he has impressed with his jumping. He is a quick and efficient jumper as highlighted by his jump index scores on all his hurdling starts.
Jump Index: The New Lion
Chepstow: 7.2
Newbury: 8.5
Newbury: 8.6
In all three races, he gained ground on his rivals at his hurdles.
Not only has he impressed with his jumping, but he also possesses plenty of speed. In all his career starts, he has finished fast, and he could have been faster this time if he had been asked for more effort. His finishing efforts are expressed below.
Market Rasen: 120.02%
Chepstow: 108%
Newbury: 109.38%
Newbury: 103.32%
He is a bright prospect with his speed and hurdling fluency likely to make him a player in the Turners Novices Hurdle at Cheltenham, for which he is currently the 3/1 favourite. Connections have stated that he will not run until then.