FINALLY, the sun came out and we had the chance to enjoy a tremendous card on the first day of Royal Ascot and it was refreshing to see the winners posting fast times on ground officially described as Good to Firm.
This is what flat racing in the summer should be about and Ascot deserve plenty of credit for not watering extensively in the lead up to the meeting.
Three races on the card were of particular interest as far as the data was concerned.
The St James’s Palace Stakes on the first day of Royal Ascot was eagerly anticipated and did not disappoint even if the 2000 Guineas winner Notable Speech ran poorly.
Rosallion utilised his most potent weapon which is his sharp turn of foot to run down Henry Longfellow. The data produced by the race is most revealing suggesting that Rosallion almost replicated his Irish 2000 Guineas victory in a race that was run at a similar tempo. In essence the race turned into a three-furlong sprint and we know from the Curragh just how effective he is in such circumstances.
Just like the Irish 2000 Guineas, the St James’s Palace Stakes was run at a steady tempo allowing horses to save energy for strong finishes.
In Ireland, Rosallion recorded a Finishing Speed Percentage of 108.57% with his final three furlongs being recorded as 11.06secs, 11.01secs and 11.83secs. At Ascot, he finished well again with an FSP of 107.96% with his final three furlongs recorded as being 11.71secs, 11.27secs and 11.60secs.
Such was the nature of the early tempo every horse in the race recorded an FSP above 100% meaning that they all completed the final two furlongs quicker than they ran the previous six.
Test of speed
Rosallion seems very well suited to a test of speed and it should be noted that his defeat in the 2000 Guineas came in a fiercely run contest where his finishing effort was nowhere near as potent.
That day he recorded an FSP of 95.39% and his final three furlongs according to the Race iQ data were 11.72secs, 11.90secs and 13.21secs. He still must prove that he can be effective in a strongly run mile, but there is no doubting that his brazen speed has been brilliantly showcased in his last two starts.
I would add that he has been very well ridden by Sean Levey on both occasions. He is clearly cognisant of his horse’s main asset and has timed his challenge at the Curragh and at Ascot to perfection.
The steady gallop was to some degree the downfall of Notable Speech who raced a little keenly and failed to produce the turn of foot that had been a feature of his unbeaten career to date.
Quickest ground
He also covered more ground than Rosallion in travelling a little wider, but that was not the difference between victory and defeat, and perhaps his below par performance has something to do with the quickest ground he has encountered so far in his career.
Henry Longfellow (second) bounced back to form and got a sensible ride close to the steady pace, but just could not live with Rosallion through the final two furlongs even if he did see off the others comfortably. Below is the Race iQ data for their respective final two furlongs.
Final two furlong splits.
1st Rosallion: 22.87secs
2nd Henry Longfellow: 23.42secs
The 0.55secs difference equates to Rosallion being three lengths faster than Henry Longfellow through the final two furlongs, and such superior speed allowed him to catch a horse who got first run and was not stopping.
THE Listed Wolferton Stakes was the second fastest running of the Wolferton Stakes since its inception in 2002 and was the best time performance on the card.
Israr recorded a final time of 2m 03.29secs to win by a decisive three and a half lengths. Fast ground brings out the best in him with four of his five wins coming with firm in the going description.
This was an evenly run race with the first three racing in seventh, sixth and fifth respectively through the first seven furlongs. Israr swept through on the far rail, impressing with how well he travelled. He recorded an FSP of 103.04%, meaning his final three furlong was 3.04% quicker than his previous seven.
He did not show the sharp turn of foot that we saw from Rosallion, but in a race over two furlongs further and encountering a stronger gallop, he still quickened impressively. He followed an eighth furlong of 11.97secs with a decisive ninth of 11.84secs.
That penultimate furlong took him clear of his nearest pursuers, but the most illuminating data is revealed by looking at the final three-furlong splits of the first three home.
1st Israr 36.03secs
2nd Haunted Dream 36.70secs
3rd Torito 36.93secs
He saw the race out better than his rivals commensurate with the fact that he stays a mile and a half. He was 0.67secs quicker than Haunted Dream which equates to four lengths on fast ground, and 0.90secs quicker than Torito which equates to five and a half lengths.
A dominant performance from Israr who bounced off the fast ground and benefitted from dropping in grade to a listed race having contested group races on his previous seven starts.
AN Australian winner of the Group 1 King Charles III Stakes sprint. Asfoora had struggled in Group 1 company at home but was a Group 2 winner at Caulfield last October.
The final time of 58.60secs was a good one in a sprint that was only evenly run. It is a little surprising that the gallop was not stronger but with most horses finishing with an FSP of over 100%, the data is clear that the pace was even with Asfoora finishing strongly recording an FSP of 104.31%. That the first three raced prominently is further evidence of the pace just being even.
The field split into two with a group of six racing stands’ side. This group contained the winner from stall 17 and the runner-up from stall 15.
Ultimately, the two groups merged, with the third and fourth home having raced towards the far side from stalls six and one. There is no inference of a track bias given that the two group came together. This was, however, a case of those that raced close to the pace on either side of the track being those involved in the finish.
Asfoora saw the race out strongly completing the final two furlongs in 22.49secs - this stiff five furlongs seemingly suiting her.
In contrast, Big Evs who led the far side group, didn’t seem to get home over this stiff five furlongs. His final two furlongs of 23.12secs was 0.63secs slower than the winner and most of that discrepancy occurred in the final furlong. He may be best served by the Nunthorpe over a quick five furlongs at York.