THE Group 1 Juddmonte Irish Oaks at the Curragh took centre stage at the weekend and was complimented by some interesting two-year-old performances, one of which produced a new Derby favourite.
The RaceiQ data produced by these races makes for some interesting analysis.
A change in tactics and a first-time tongue tie enabled You Got To Me to land the Group 1 for Ralph Beckett and Hector Crouch. The final time was recorded as being 2m 32.61secs which was 3.80secs under the RaceiQ par which is derived from historical evidence of races of this class being run under conditions described as ‘Good’ at this track.
This was a fast time compared to other performances on the card obtaining a Time Index score of 8.87 out of 10 with the meeting average being 7.86.
This final time was achieved courtesy of a gallop that produced a fast/slow/fast tempo. The first four home came from off the pace with Rubies Are Red taking the field through a fast first half mile. After four furlongs the first four home were in the following positions.
1st: You Got To Me (8th)
2nd: Content (9th)
3rd: Purple Lily (6th)
4th: Elizabeth Jane (13th)
That fast first five furlongs was followed by a slackening of the pace causing the field to come together through the next three furlongs before the pace picked up again through the final three furlongs. That mid race pause meant that horses could save energy for a fast finish with the winner recording a Finishing Speed Percentage of 108.57%.
This meant that in running the final three furlongs in 35.14 seconds You Got To Me was 8.57% faster than she had been in the first nine furlongs.
This is commendable given that despite a change in tactics from racing handily to being held-up, she was still a little keen through the early stages.
The data suggests that the result may have been different if the runner-up, Content, had got a smoother run through the race. She tracked the winner throughout, saving ground on the inside.
Her problems began when the pace slackened, and the field concertinaed after six furlongs. She was hampered and lost momentum at this stage, at one point hitting the rail.
Thereafter she had to wait for a gap before launching a challenge. Once in the clear she ran home faster than the winner through each of the final two furlongs and her FSP of 109.68% shows that she was 1.11% faster than the winner through the final three furlongs. The closing splits are below.
Irish Oaks: Final Two Furlongs:
You Got To Me: 35.14secs
Content: 34.82secs
The Filly and Mare Turf at Del Mar looks to be an obvious target for Content.
Note should be made of the fourth Elizabeth Jane who raced in 13th throughout the race and was still in that position with two furlongs to run.
She was too far back the way the race panned out but her final two furlongs of 35.18secs propelled her into fourth place and this final two-furlong split was only bettered by Content (34.82secs). She is lightly-raced and has a bigger effort in the locker.
THIS son of Sea The Stars made a winning debut on Saturday at the Curragh and is now the 16/1 favourite for the 2025 Derby. He has plenty of stamina in his pedigree yet the data is positive about the amount of pace that he possesses.
The final time for this seven-furlong maiden was 1m25.38secs which was better than could be expected for maidens over this trip at the Curragh as evidenced by The Lion In Winter dipping 1.59secs under the RaceiQ par. He looked inexperienced through the race and came off the bridle before some of his rivals but picked up well through the final three furlongs. His final splits are:
F5: 11.35secs (Fastest in race through this furlong)
F6: 11.27secs (The winner’s fastest split in the race)
F7: 11.74secs (Only horse in the race to dip under
12.00secs in the final furlong)
The speed he showed through these furlongs to go from seventh place to first was impressive and he was not just running down horses who were stopping. The FSPs of the first three home indicate that he ran past horses who were themselves finishing well.
Finishing Speed percentages of first three.
1st: The Lion in Winter: 106.02%
2nd: Currawood: 102.65%
3rd: Ides Of March: 102.21%
For all the speed he showed to run down those who got first run, the final furlong was his most impressive. To record 11.74secs while being eased down was much better than his nearest pursuer who recorded 12.59secs. The Lion In Winter is a bright prospect and seems to have an ideal blend of stamina and speed. He will stay a mile but he holds an entry in the seven furlong Group 2 Futurity on August 24th.
BABOUCHE remain unbeaten in two starts and having beaten her own sex at Cork saw off the boys in the Group 3 Jebel Ali Racecourse and Stables Anglesey Stakes.
Babouche was rated evenly behind a strong pace set by Treasure Isle. That her fastest furlong in the contest was the second furlong where she recorded 10.68 seconds (41.23mph) is evidence of how hard she had to run in the early part of the race. By running evenly as evidenced by an FSP of 100.66% she recorded a good final time of 1m 15.69secs which was 1.49secs under what would be expected by the RaceiQ par.
She clearly has plenty of speed as evidenced by her individual splits as below.
F2: 10.68secs
F3: 11.09secs
F4: 11.22secs
F5: 11.27secs
F6: 12.65secs
That relatively slow final furlong saw her dig deep to see off Camille Pissarro who had been rated well off the pace as his stable companion blazed a trail.
He sprinted from ninth place to second with the two fastest splits in the race, and was the only horse in the race to record two sub-11.00secs furlongs. His splits are detailed in the table.
F2: 11.15secs
F3: 11.24secs
F4: 10.92secs
F5: 10.70secs
F6: 12.65secs
He deserves credit for the surge that took him into contention from a less advantageous position than adopted by Babouche. She in turn must given credit for being close to a strong pace but still being able to dig deep to see of the late surge of Camille Pissaro.
A clash between Babouche and Fairy Godmother would be one to savour later this season. Camille Pissaro looks to be a horse with abundant speed.