FOR many the Craven meeting at Newmarket signals the start of the flat season and analytically it produced some interesting performances.
It may not be the stepping stone to classic success in May as it once was, with trainers content to swerve a prep race and go straight to the 1000 and 2000 Guineas.
Nonetheless, I am keen to make a data driven selection for the 1000 Guineas on the back of the Nell Gwyn last Wednesday, and believe we saw a horse who will be very hard to beat next time out after a promising start to his career in the Wood Ditton.
All data analysis of this meeting should be seen through the prism of a strong tailwind and drying ground.
It is always an advantage to race prominently at the Rowley Mile but this run style was exaggerated by the strong wind that was pushing them along up the straight.
Nell Gwyn
When it comes to the 1000 Guineas there is a strong case to be made for the Nell Gwyn Stakes runner-up Dance Sequence who is generally available at 6/1 for the 1000 Guineas.
This race was run at an even gallop with Pretty Crystal recording a Finishing Speed Percentage of 101.44%, meaning that she completed the final two furlongs 1.44% quicker than she ran the previous five.
She stuck to her task gamely when challenged by Dance Sequence, but she had enjoyed a positional advantage over the runner-up who found some trouble when trying to get a run.
The Race IQ data reveals that Dance Sequence was faster through the final two furlongs than Pretty Crystal.
Pretty Crystal: 23.55secs
Dance Sequence: 23.19secs
That she did not win can be put down to her starting her run from further back in the field than the winner.
A closer examination of the sectionals reveals that Dance Sequence sprinted through the penultimate furlong in a quick 10.93secs compared to the winner who recorded a split of 11.07secs.
This surge looked sure to propel Dance Sequence to victory, but she looked green and wandered under pressure leaving the impression that she will have more to give on another day.
The step up to a mile in the 1000 Guineas will suit her and if the raw speed that she flashed in the Nell Gwyn through the sixth furlong can be harnessed for a late attack, she looks sure to go close to winning the first fillies’ classic.
JAYAREBE may slip under the radar, but to ignore what he achieved at Newmarket in the Listed Bet365 Fielden Stakes would be a mistake.
This was only his third career start and although he holds no fancy entries the data suggests that he can win group races. He raced prominently here as did most winners at the three-day meeting and he impressed with a sustained burst of speed that took him clear of the field.
The final time was a fast one at 1m 47.41secs which was 0.1secs faster than the older Ottoman Fleet in the Earl of Sefton.
As is normally the case when good final times are achieved, Jayarebe was rated evenly, and he finished strongly recording an FSP of 103.34%. His individual splits are recorded below and they highlight that he quickened through the seventh and eighth furlongs, a sustained burst of speed that took him clear of the field.
1F: 14.79secs (From a standing start in stalls)
2F: 11.72secs
3F: 11.77secs
4F: 11.56secs
5F: 11.52secs
6F: 11.41secs
7F: 11.26secs (Quickened)
8F: 11.20secs
9F: 12.18secs (Eased)
A final three-furlong comparison with Whip Cracker (second) highlights his dominance.
Jayarebe: 34.65secs
Whip Cracker: 35.09secs
Jayarebe will stay further given that there is plenty of stamina on the dam’s side of his pedigree, but the data from Newmarket has highlighted that he is not short of speed and a step up in trip to 10 furlongs will be ideal.
The Group 3 Hampton Court at Royal Ascot may well be his target.
HAATEM is unconsidered by the markets for the 2000 Guineas after his Group 3 Bet365 Craven Stakes success. He is quoted as big as 25/1 and, while he needs to improve to be a player in the 2000 Guineas, this performance should be looked at positively.
Some of the negativity arises from the race falling apart with Cambridge, Alcantor and Native Approach all underperforming. Nonetheless, he produced some impressive data.
A good final time of 1m 35.09secs was achieved off another even gallop with him recording an FSP of 101.97%. Racing prominently, he quickened smartly through the final two furlongs recording 11.15secs and 11.07secs. (41.02mph).
This amounted to him being 0.43secs quicker than his nearest pursuer in those last couple of furlongs and whilst this was not a dominant display it was a decisive victory (three and a half lengths). Haatem deserves a little more credit for his performance than he has got but he will have to improve to win the 2000 Guineas.
THE Bet365 Wood Ditton Maiden is analytically notable for the vanquished as opposed to the winner. First Conquest got an easy lead and made all to win by a nose from Lead Artist. He was able to save enough energy on the lead to finish the race strongly recording an FSP of 104.68%.
He had a positional advantage over Lead Artist (second) and Earl of Rochester (third) and all the data analysis points to Lead Artist being an unlucky loser.
Race IQ have developed a new metric which measures how quickly a horse gets to 20MPH from the stalls.
To the eye it was obvious that Lead Artist missed the break but data analysis tells us how his start compared to the winner. Below is how quickly the first two reached that 20MPH mark.
First Conquest: 2.98s to 20MPH.
Lead Artist: 3.67s to 20MPH.
The difference of 0.69mph at the start put Lead Artist on the back foot in a steadily run race. A poor start but a good finish from the runner-up nearly propelled him to victory. His final two furlongs of 22.88s was the fastest in the race, the winner recording 23.15s.
Both Lead Artist and Earl Of Rochester posted sub-11.00s furlongs going in pursuit of First Conquest but he held prevailed courtesy of getting an easy lead and gaining lengths at the start.
His final furlong of 12.06s compared to 11.94s for Lead Artist tells us just how well the winner finished the race, and he would have won in another stride.