AT Navan and Cheltenham last weekend, there were some performances that produced analytics that are worthy of investigation.
Based on my assertion that the figures never lie, I will set out which horses stood out and explain what the data said they achieved.
The best performance at Cheltenham came from an unlikely source, in the shape of the once-raced juvenile hurdler, East India Dock, who is now generally available at 8/1 for the Triumph Hurdle after winning the Grade 2 JCB Triumph Trial Juvenile Hurdle.
East India Dock is a half-brother to Burdett Road, who won the Greatwood Hurdle last Sunday and he put up the best jumping performance at the three-day meeting.
The juvenile had impressed on his debut, when winning at Wincanton, where he jumped well, gaining 6.96 lengths on the field with his jumping. He was much better on this occasion, gaining an impressive 16.9 lengths on the field with some quick, accurate jumping.
On average, he gained 2.11 lengths at every hurdle he jumped, which is a remarkable data set for a horse having just his second start over hurdles.
He dominated his field between the hurdles as well. He raced prominently and was the only horse to finish the race relatively strongly.
His final four furlongs of 54.97s was 4.26s faster than the runner-up, meaning that he was the only horse in the race to achieve a Finishing Speed Percentage (FSP) above 100.
1st East India Dock: 103.05%
2nd Static: 97.18%
3rd Torrent 97.53%
His final two furlongs of 13.60s and 14.41s were much faster than any of his rivals and, while they show how strongly he was able to finish the race, they also highlight the limitations of his rivals.
He will face much stiffer opposition going forward, but the way he jumped and quickened away from his rivals with four sub-14.00s furlongs in a row was impressive and marks him out as being an exciting prospect.
THAT L’Eau Du Sud is as big as 12/1 for the Arkle is not a reflection of how impressive he was in winning the Grade 2 Paddy Power Arkle Trophy Trial Novices Chase.
It is more a price that reflects that we have not seen the likes of Ballyburn and Sir Gino yet this season.
He displayed that he has speed in abundance and that, allied with his excellent jumping, saw him win by 11 lengths. This was an evenly-run contest, with L’Eau Du Sud storming up the hill to record an FSP of 104.70%.
Western Zephyr in second place made the running and kept going well, recording an FSP of 100.86%, but he could not match the speed of the winner.
The pace picked up with five furlongs to run, with L’Eau Du Sud completing the final four of those in 55.89s, which was 2.76s quicker than Western Zephyr.
Given the easy manner of his success, it is feasible to believe that the discrepancy could have been greater. His final two furlongs of 14.33s and 14.24s were much quicker than his rivals, none of whom managed to dip under 15.00s.
This speed was backed up by a superb jumping display. He gained 10.11 lengths with his fencing and, as such, was far superior to his rivals as detailed below.
Lengths Gained Jumping (LGJ)
L’Eau Du Sud 10.11
Western Zephyr 0.24
Lookaway 3.42
San Salvador -1.47
This was just his second start over fences. His debut win at Stratford also saw him jump well, with Race IQ data detailing that he gained 8.34 lengths with his jumping.
His speed and alacrity over fences is clear to see and, as such, 12/1 looks a big price for the Arkle, given what he has already achieved over the larger obstacles compared to his market rivals.
GORDON Elliott dominated proceedings at Navan last weekend, with nine winners and three of them warrant closer attention. The Yellow Clay won the Grade 3 John Lynch Carpets and Flooring Monksfield Novice Hurdle.
The Yellow Clay had won a very steadily run maiden hurdle at Down Royal on his hurdling debut. He needed to improve to win this Grade 3, but took the step up in trip in his stride, even if there is more improvement needed in his jumping.
This was an evenly-run contest, with the winner recording an FSP of 101.56% suggesting that he stayed this two-and-a-half-mile trip strongly, as he sauntered to a 10-length success.
He took up the running with three furlongs to run and was comfortably the fastest horse in the race through those final furlongs. His superiority was highlighted by his final furlong compared to Where’s My Jet in second place, who had won his previous two starts.
Final Furlong Splits.
The Yellow Clay: 58.71s
Where’s My Jet: 61.08s
The Yellow Clay jumped adequately, gaining 2.43 lengths on the field. Where’s My Jet produced a better round of jumping, gaining 5.84 lengths, but he could not match the winner’s speed. There is clearly some room for improvement in the jumping department, but that should not detract from the fact that the Spring Festivals will be on the agenda for this impressive individual.
THE beginners’ chase was notable for the return of the Supreme Novices Hurdle winner Slade Steel, who like Better Days Ahead was making his chase debut.
This was a steadily run contest, with all three finishers recording relatively fast finishes.
1st: Better Days Ahead: 110.98%
2nd: Slade Steel: 110.47%
3rd: Kinturk Kalanisi: 107.00%
Despite the steady gallop, neither of the first two jumped well, as evidenced by their Lengths Gained Jumping figures.
While Better Days Ahead warmed to the task, with his jumping improving as the race went on, Slade Steel struggled throughout. He was particularly slow at the fourth last, where he lost 7.26mph, and the last, where he lost 7.44mph. Of the 14 fences jumped, he lost ground at 10 of them. The experience will not be lost on either of them, both may take a big step forward next time out, but Slade Steel looked far from a natural over the larger obstacles.
Memory not to be forgotten
DOWN Memory Lane produced an eye-catching front-running debut from this horse over fences. He did get his own way in front, able to save energy for a strong finish as evidenced by his FSP of 110.15%, indeed all of the field completed the final four furlongs faster than they ran the previous 13, but none impressed as much as Down Memory Lane.
This was his first run over fences and Mark Walsh nursed him to success, without ever getting serious with him.
He jumped well, gaining 4.69 lengths on the field with his jumping and, given that, he beat the likes of the useful King Of Kingsfield and Nurburgring. He will have a bright future in this discipline, as long as all stays well with him, after all he is a six-year-old with only four runs to his name.