SEVERAL performances over the last seven days provided us with food for thought, as far as the Cheltenham Festival is concerned. Constitution Hill was the highest profile horse on show, and he cantered to success in a race where he was afforded a very easy lead. Bar a difference of opinion with Nico de Boinville at the last, it was all very routine.

The most interesting point from the data he produced is that the mistake at the last may have looked bad, but such was the energy he had in reserve, he only lost 2.17mph at that final hurdle and gained 1.49 lengths on the rest of the field. The final time he recorded was 4m 20.47s, which was a staggering 10.17s slower than East India Dock earlier on the card.

A good example of final time comparisons of races being most deceptive without analysis of how those times were achieved. We learnt nothing more about Constitution Hill, but it’s worth looking deeper into the performance of East India Dock in the Grade 2 JCB Triumph Trial Juvenile Hurdle.

East India Dock

While there has been attention and praise lavished upon Lulamba after his exciting debut win at Ascot, this horse is the standard setter for the Triumph Hurdle, after an impressive 10-length success. He dictated an even gallop, before quickening the pace five furlongs out and produced a relatively fast finish, with a Finishing Speed Percentage (FSP) of 105.86%. Only the runner-up (Stencil) was able to produce a figure over 100% (102.79%), the rest of field floundering up the hill.

His final four furlongs of 55.50s was 2.24s faster than the runner-up and this was achieved by the relentless speed that he showed. He was the only horse in the race able to record four sub-14.00s furlongs in a row and a final furlong of 14.65s was only bettered on the card by Constitution Hill, showing how strongly he got to the line.

He has plenty of speed, as he demonstrated on the flat and when winning at Wincanton on his hurdling debut, where the sharp nature of the track on decent ground was of no concern, as he reached a top speed of 36.45mph. This speed will be a valuable weapon in the Triumph Hurdle, given that his ability to see out the two-mile trip is assured.

This mix of speed and stamina is allied to him being a fast and efficient jumper. In his three starts over hurdles, he has recorded the following Race IQ Jump Index scores. A score of 7 out of 10 represents an average round of jumping.

Wincanton: 7.3

Cheltenham: 8.9

Cheltenham: 8.3

For context, Lulamba recorded a jump index of 6.7 at Ascot. East India Dock has all the attributes for the Triumph Hurdle and a reproduction of this performance may be good enough with Lulamba, albeit full of potential, needing to improve to pose a serious threat.

Maughreen kicks off her hurdling career

Maughreen made her hurdling debut at Punchestown with a lot to lose given her lofty reputation, after an 11-length demolition job on her only start in a bumper.

She is now generally available at 3/1 for the Dawn Run Mares Novice Hurdle at Cheltenham, following a performance that Willie Mullins described as being “a huge performance for a mare having just her second run”.

This was a good, rather than spectacular, start to her hurdling career, but there is potential for a lot more in March. Maughreen dictated a modest pace before picking up through the final six furlongs, which meant that she recorded an FSP of 106.83%, which is made up of a final four furlongs of 61.74s compared to the runner-up, who clocked 64.38.

Maughreen would have recorded better figures, if she had not been heavily eased into the last hurdle, where Paul Townend opted for the safety-first option.

This meant that Maughreen lost 7.8mph at this hurdle, compared to an average speed loss over the previous 11 hurdles of 3.72mph.

This meant she recorded a very low jump index of 3.5 at this hurdle, compared to her overall score of 6.2.

This race level Jump Index suggests that there is considerable room for improvement in her jumping. She only gained ground on the field with her jumping at four of the 12 hurdles, resulting in her losing 0.41 lengths on the field.

Her best jump came at the sixth flight, where she had a jump index score of 8.7 and only lost 1.06mph, this indicates that she has the potential to be better over her hurdles, but she will have to do it consistently at Cheltenham to justify her short odds.

WILLIE Mullins had an excellent form with nine winners from his last 20 runners. He will have been pleased with Anzadam, who won the Grade 3 Limestone Lad at Naas. The data does not reveal much more than your eye would have perceived, but it’s worth noting that the soft ground blunted the speed that he had shown at Fairyhouse on his debut on good ground.

His top speed here of 32.33mph compared to 36.70mph at Fairyhouse. On both occasions, he jumped very efficiently, with his Jump Index being 8.9 and 8.8. He remains a very smart prospect - perhaps even more so on decent ground.

Karbau excites

Another Willie Mullins horse who is worthy of note is Karbau, who bolted up by 16 lengths at Punchestown on Monday in the BetVictor Graduation Bonus Series Maiden Hurdle.

He made all the running, with the pace just being even and, given that he raced keenly, he could have been forgiven for not finishing his race off strongly. In fact, he finished off very strongly, recording an FSP of 112.38%. He was the only horse to record a sub-14.00s furlong in the race, with a 13.57s penultimate furlong, which saw him surge clear of his rivals.

Slurricane, who won the next race on the card off a mark of 115, also recorded a fast finish (FSP 112.91%), but his final time was 7.1s slower than Karbau, who produced as fast a finish off a stronger gallop and carried 5lb more than Slurricane.

Karbau jumped brilliantly, recording a jump index of 8.2, gaining 14.45 lengths on the field ,and this represents a big improvement on his debut for Willie Mullins, where his index was 7.5.

He comes from the yard of Emmanuel Clayeux in France, as did Sir Des Champs, who ended up winning three Grade 1 races for the Mullins team.

It would not be a great surprise, if this horse were to make up into a Grade 1 performer as well.