THREE two-year-olds made their mark at the Curragh last Saturday. All of them trained by Aidan O’Brien and all ridden by Ryan Moore who completed a four-timer on the day. They look set to make their mark in better company this season, seemingly close to the top of the pecking order at Ballydoyle. The data they produced is interesting and gives us a handle on their raw ability and a clue as to where their futures may lie.
American Pharoah filly, Dreamy, remains unbeaten after two starts, winning a Group 3. Her debut success at Goodwood was over seven furlongs where she finished her race off strongly to overhaul the front-runner, Bouvier.
She was the only filly to dip under 12.00secs in the final furlong with an 11.92secs sectional suggesting that this was a minimum for her in terms of trip.
She was stepped up to a mile at the Curragh and she needed that extra furlong. This was by no means a stern test of stamina. The first four furlongs were all faster than the Acapulco Bay race but still rated as being slow overall.
F1: 15.41secs (Slow)
F2: 12.09secs (Par)
F3: 12.45secs (Slow)
F4: 12.58secs (Slow)
Dreamy raced in third place and only got to the front inside the final furlong where her superior stamina enabled her to see off the runner-up, Fiery Lucy. She looked beaten when Fiery Lucy quickened through furlongs six and seven, indeed that filly was quicker than Dreamy through those furlongs. However, a final furlong of 12.56secs (Very Fast) saw off Fiery Lucy, who is a quicker horse, but did not see the trip out as well as Dreamy.
The second and third both reached top speeds in the race that were superior to the winner, but they were ultimately outstayed.
Top Speeds achieved by first three:
1st: Dreamy: 39.73mph (F7)
2nd: Fiery Lucy: 40.69mph (F7)
3rd: Alla Stella: 39.89mph (F7)
This filly is a strong stayer. She may find a bit more speed when she is more experienced but essentially, she is a mile and a half filly in the making. Dreamy is available at 16/1 for next year’s Oaks.
THIS was an impressive performance from Ides Of March who never looked in danger of defeat. The Wootton Bassett colt has now won two out of his four starts and is getting better.
This was an evenly run sprint, yet Ides Of March was able to quicken through the final two furlongs to record an FSP of 105.64%. That number was achieved by completing the final two furlongs in 22.96secs compared to Usdi Atohi in second who recorded 23.33secs.
A very slow opening furlong saw Ides Of March tank his way to the front and then for three furlongs he was rated evenly by Ryan Moore before quickening smartly. His sectionals as against the RaceiQ Par are displayed below.
F1: 15.60secs (Very Slow)
F2: 11.42secs (Par)
F3: 11.49secs (Par)
F4: 11.28secs (Par)
F5: 10.98secs (Fast)
F6: 11.98secs (Very Fast)
He was the only horse in the race to dip under 11.00secs in the penultimate furlong reaching a top speed of 41.02mph compared to the runner-up who reached 40.65mph through the same furlong. Not only did he hit the top speed in the race, no other horse on the eight-race card was able to run as fast as him.
His pedigree suggests that he will stay a mile, but he looks to be a very fast horse whose future lies in top class sprints. He is entered in the Group 1 Middle Park and Group 2 Mill Reef Stakes and both appeal as good options.
As for next year I have made a note next to his name for the Commonwealth Cup at Royal Ascot for which he currently trades at 20/1. That may look a very big price next summer.
THE promise that Acapulco Bay showed in his first start was fulfilled with his win last Saturday where he looked sharper and was able to dictate from the front. The RaceiQ data allows us to compare how quickly this Dubawi colt reached 20mph on both starts and it demonstrates just how much sharper he was last Saturday.
Acapulco Bay 0-20mph
10/08/24 Curragh: 3.34secs (12th)
31/08/24 Curragh: 2.44secs (1st)
After this sharp start he dominated a race that was not run at a much stronger tempo than on his first start, but the difference was that he was able to dominate on this occasion. The first four furlongs were slow. Ryan Moore was able to control a sedate tempo. He took the field through the following sectionals which are rated against the RaceiQ Par sectionals for a one-mile two-year-old contest at this track.
F1: 16.23secs (Very Slow)
F2: 12.62secs (Slow)
F3: 12.68secs (Slow)
F4: 13.14secs (Very Slow)
Thereafter he was able to wind the pace up. He went from a very slow 13.14secs fourth furlong to a 12.40secs furlong and then three very fast final furlongs as rated against Par.
F6: 11.39secs (Very Fast)
F7: 11.26secs (Very Fast)
F8: 12.06secs (Very Fast)
This quick finish resulted in the winner recording a Finishing Speed Percentage of 109.13%.
The data tells us that this victory was achieved by dictating a steady pace and quickening from the front. Ironically it may not have showcased Acapulco Bay in his best light as he has a stout pedigree and may be a better model when involved in a strongly run race over a mile as his dam won at 12 and 14 furlongs.
A good ride from the front helped him win, but his best is yet to come when his stamina is drawn out. He has five entries, the Group 2 Beresford Stakes over a mile may be his next step. As for next year, he is likely to make up into a mile and a half three-year-old.