THE Derby picture is one that centres around the unwavering belief that Aidan O’Brien has in City Of Troy. Such belief sees his colt at the head of the market (7/2) despite a woeful return to action in the 2000 Guineas.

His place in the market a function of punters belief in the ability of Aidan O’Brien to pull another Auguste Rodin rabbit out of the hat, and in truth, if anyone can repeat the feat, Aidan can.

The data this colt produced as a two-year-old is outstanding and should not be forgotten, but we don’t really know where we stand with him.

Setting aside the City Of Troy conundrum leaves us with last week’s Derby trials at Chester, Lingfield and Leopardstown, and they are the focus of my attention this week as I assess whether the data produced has thrown up a viable Derby contender.

Capulet had disappointed on his seasonal reappearance at Chelmsford but found a good deal of improvement here, upped in trip to 10 furlongs in the Dee Stakes at Chester.

In part, that improvement must be put down to a well-judged front-running ride from Ryan Moore. The final time was not remarkable with Capulet stopping the clock at 2m10.66secs, a time which is rooted in the steady early gallop.

Capulet recorded a Finishing Speed Percentage (FSP) of 105.20%, suggesting that he was able to preserve energy early in the contest for a relatively strong finish. The early fractions are detailed below.

F1: 19.10secs (From a standing start)

F2: 12.77secs

F3: 13.08secs

F4: 12.78secs

F5: 12.67secs

F6: 12.23secs

Thereafter Capulet quickened from the front with 11.82secs and 11.94secs splits.

The ability to quicken from the front where he held a positional advantage was then the key to then seeing off Bracken’s Laugh by half a length.

Indeed, with Bracken’s Laugh posting a faster final three furlongs, the front-running ride that Capulet received seemed to be the key to success. Final three-furlong splits detailed below.

Capulet: 36.11secs

Bracken’s Laugh: 35.93secs

Capulet had everything in his favour here and although he showed some improvement to win, the data points to him having to still improve quite a good deal to figure in the Derby this year.

He is from the family of Serpentine who won the Derby in 2020 and should stay 12 furlongs, but even allowing for that, it’s hard to see all the stars aligning for him at Epsom as they did at Chester.

Ambiente Friendly looks all

about speed rather than stamina

A STEP up in trip following defeat (fourth) in the Fielden Stakes worked the oracle for Ambiente Friendly who ran out a four-and-a-half-length winner of the Listed William Hill Lingfield Derby Trial Stakes last Saturday in what was a career best effort.

The overall gallop was stronger than the one Capulet dictated in the Dee Stakes, but it was what could be described as an OXO tempo where the race can be divided into three in terms of pace.

The first segment of four furlongs was strongly run with all splits under 12.00secs. The pace then steadied for the next four furlongs before a final four-furlong segment where the pace quickened again.

That steady middle segment allowed for energy conservation and allowed the first five home to record FSPs over 100%, with the winner taking 35.79secs to complete the final three furlongs and thereby recording an FSP of 103.96%.

The turn of speed that Ambiente Friendly showed through those final three furlongs was impressive. He was fastest through each of them with individual splits of:

F10: 11.72secs

F11: 11.77secs

F12: 12.30secs

Given how this race was run, he had too much speed for his rivals. A more even gallop may have blunted that speed, and whether he will be able to find such speed at Epsom, which is a much stiffer track, is debateable.

The data is very positive about this performance, but it is a performance that was all about speed rather than stamina, and he may be found wanting for the latter at Epsom.

One other interesting angle was at play here and it is one that is often ignored. He is a keen going sort who wore a hood on his previous three starts, but here the hood was taken off and it had the effect of waking him up.

It happens quite often that horses improve when the hood is taken off, its removal causing them to sharpen up and come to life.

ALREADY a Group 1 winner as a two-year-old at Saint-Cloud, Los Angeles remains unbeaten after three career starts.

The step up to 10 furlongs in the Group 3 Cashel Palace Hotel Derby Trial Stakes seeming to suit him as he beat his stable companion Euphoric. Visually this looked to be a race that was run at an even gallop and that Los Angeles won by outstaying his rivals, but the data shows that he has more speed than he has been given credit for.

An FSP of 106.84% indicative of his strong finish which helped him record a fair final time of 2m 6.82secs.

The plaudits for Ambiente Friendly focus on the speed he showed, yet a comparison with how fast he ran compared to Los Angeles shows that the latter should be garnering more credit. Both horses raced on ground described as good, although it may have been a bit quicker at Leopardstown.

Ambiente Friendly: Fastest Furlong: 11.61secs, Top Speed: 39.36mph

Los Angeles: Fastest Furlong: 11.31secs, Top Speed: 40.58mph

If the Lingfield Derby trial was a race of three tempo segments, this was a race of two halves. Euphoric was sent into a clear lead with the pace looking strong, but it wasn’t. The early fractions are as follows.

F1: 16.08secs

F2: 12.31secs

F3: 12.58secs

F4: 12.71secs

F5: 12.74secs

Thereafter the pace gradually increased with Los Angeles quickening to the front through F8 and F9.

His 11.31secs through F8 was particularly impressive compared to his rivals and took him to the front. He backed that up with an 11.77secs penultimate furlong which was enough to see off his rivals.

He was undoubtedly strong through the final three furlongs, but it would be a mistake to label him as a stayer as he is faster than he looks.

He should have no problem staying the Derby trip and 8/1 looks to be a fair price. Without the “Auguste Rodin” effect and Aidan’s belief in City Of Troy, Los Angeles would be favourite for the Derby. City Of Troy may be the exciting place to be in these skirmishes for the Derby but Los Angeles may be a safer residence for punters.