MOST trainers have already put the finishing touches to their Cheltenham challenge and consequently, the action last week was more about individual performances rather than looking at them through the prism of the Festival.

That said, there were still a couple of performances that were good enough to book a Cheltenham ticket.

In top class sport, fine margins can be decisive and sometimes visual impressions can be deceptive. That is why the increasing use of data in horse racing is so vital. It can identify those vital moments in races that make a difference and confirm or deny what we have seen with our eyes.

What we saw at Ascot in the Betfair Chase was not totally backed up by the data and it is with that race where I will start this week’s analysis.

From a visual point of view, this race was easy to sum up. Pic D’Orhy made all, jumped superbly and cruised to a five and a half-length success. But when we dive into the data, nuances on that interpretation come to light.

The start of the race was somewhat contentious with Harry Cobden seemingly being afforded a head start on the winner. The fact is, he was just more aggressive than the other jockeys when the tapes went up. He wanted to lead, as a comparison of the first furlong splits displays. Through that first furlong he was 1.12secs quicker than the runner-up L’Homme Presse and the other two runners were even slower as detailed below.

Furlong One:

Pic D’Orhy: 15.84secs

L’Homme Presse: 16.72secs

Ahoy Senor: 17.80secs

Sail Away: 17.42secs

Harry Cobden kept the pressure on through the first mile, he was quicker than his rivals through seven of those first eight furlongs. He was not going too fast, rather he was dictating a good even gallop which had L’Homme Presse behind the bridle for much of the race.

It was the even pace that he went having established a lead, that won him the race. Pic D’Orhy recorded an FSP of 102.78% meaning he ran the last four furlongs 2.78% quicker than he ran the previous two miles and a furlong. This is concrete evidence that the gallop was just even.

A horse that is able to get his own way in front and dictate even fractions is always going to be hard to run down, particularly when that horse is able to be the fastest in the final four furlongs off the back of that gallop. He recorded 60.18s for those furlongs compares to L’Homme Presse who clocked 60.59s.

Where the data is most revealing is in the Race IQ jumping analytics. The common belief after the race was that Pic D’Orhy put in a spectacular round of jumping.

That is not backed up by the data which suggests he was efficient rather than spectacular. The numbers show he gained ground at nine of the 17 fences. He jumped particularly well in the early part of the race, the fifth fence being his best jump gaining 1.16 lengths.

It was a different story through the mid-part of the race. Jumping the 10th, he had gained two and a half lengths on the field courtesy of his jumping, by the time he got to the 15th, he had lost 0.99 lengths on the field largely courtesy of mistakes at the 11th and 14th.

This amounts to a round of jumping that defies the visuals. Here are the cumulative Race IQ jumping data for all horses in the race.

Pic D’Orhy: +0.06 lengths

L’Homme Presse: -1.16 lengths

Ahoy Senor: -0.08 llengths

Sail Away: -3.05 lengths

For context, when Pic D’Orhy was second to Banbridge at Kempton in January, he jumped much better, gaining 5.7 lengths on the field.

Sheila Bourke Novices Hurdle (Listed): Tullyhill

Willie Mullins has another live Supreme Novices’ Hurdle contender on his hands in the shape of Tullyhill who won at Punchestown last Sunday.

He made all the running at an even gallop and finished the race off strongly. His final four furlongs were recorded as being 5.40% quicker than the previous mile and a half.

If we break those figures down, it is clear he was much stronger than his rivals. Below is his final four-furlong split compared to the runner-up.

Final four furlongs:

Tullyhill: 61.36secs

No Flies on Him: 62.73secs

Tullyhill is clearly a horse with plenty of speed as he showed in the third last furlong where he recorded a split of 14.23secs, and he backed that up with a 14.35secs penultimate furlong where he was the only horse in the race to dip under 15.00secs. On heavy ground those are impressive numbers.

He has made a good deal of progress since being beaten on his seasonal reappearance at Punchestown, yet there is still room for more improvement in the jumping department.

His best jump came at the last hurdle where he gained 1.77 lengths on his rivals, suggesting that he was still full of running but cumulatively he was not as good. Through the race, he lost 1.08 lengths whereas No Flies On Him in second gained 5.0 lengths.

That he could win as he did despite losing ground at his hurdles, is testament to his raw ability.

We know he can jump better because he gained 3.47 lengths when he won at Naas on his previous start, a worrying thought for his Supreme Hurdle rivals.

The addition of cheekpieces and a superb, yes spectacular, round of jumping propelled Yeah Man to victory and on course for the Irish Grand National.

While he produced a strong finish compared to the runner-up with a final four furlongs of 66.11secs compared to 66.86secs, it was his jumping that secured victory in the face of a rival who also jumped well. Below are the lengths gained data for the first two.

Yeah Man (+14,67 lengths)

My Silver Lining (+3.86 lengths)

This was the best jumping display of the weekend.

This mare was an impressive nine and a half-length winner of this Grade 3 and the data shows she destroyed her rivals. She was 2.26secs quicker than the runner-up through the final four furlongs recording an FSP of 108.62%, yet she left the impression that she could have gone faster.

Her only serious rival was burnt off in the penultimate furlong where she recorded 15.47secs compared to a 15.73secs from What’s Up Darling in second.

At the nine hurdles in the race, she was better than all her rivals at eight of the flights. Her cumulative gain at the nine hurdles being recorded as +10.87 lengths. She is very slick in the approach to her hurdles and her speed recovery time is impressive. A tilt at the Mares’ Hurdle at Cheltenham may well be on the cards, her potential there for all to see, and backed up by the data.