THE focus of my attention this week is the Irish Derby Festival at the Curragh. The Irish Derby, the Pretty Polly and the Railway Stakes were fascinating contests which produced data that may serve to alter opinions based simply on what the eye can see.

These three races should be seen in the context of the contrasting conditions that they were run in. On Saturday, the Pretty Polly was run on ground officially described as good to yielding and the Irish Derby and Railway Stakes on Sunday were run on ground described as good. The RaceiQ time index scores which look at the times achieved and compares them historically with times achieved on the same ground in the same class of races suggest that there was a marked difference in the going on both days suggesting that it dried out considerably following racing on Saturday.

Average RaceiQ Time Index scores:

Saturday: 4.73

Sunday: 8.43.

The ground was clearly much better on Sunday which contributed to the faster times, but the racing on Sunday also featured races that were run at stronger tempos and the discrepancy in the time index scores are related to these two factors.

Bluestocking is Pretty quick to lay claim to first Group 1

Pretty Polly Stakes

BLUESTOCKING gained her first Group 1 success in gutsy fashion running down the keen going Emily Upjohn to win by half a length. The final time she achieved was 2m10.90secs which can be compared to the very useful Jan Breughel who won the Al Basti Equiworld Dubai International Stakes over the same trip in a time of 2m9.86secs. That Jan Breughel was 1.04secs quicker is a function of him being a very useful prospect rather than his faster time being a function of pace. Both races were run at a similar tempo steady early tempo allowing for relatively strong finishes as evidenced by their Finishing Speed Percentages (FSPs).

Bluestocking: 106.81%

Jan Breughel: 106.30%

Bluestocking raced in fifth early on and went in pursuit of Emily Upjohn (second) in the final three furlongs. Her penultimate furlong of 11.85 was her fastest in the race and she was the only horse in the race to dip under 12.00secs through this furlong. She stayed on strongly to get past Emily Upjohn who was legless in the final furlong. Their final three-furlong splits are below.

Final three-furlong splits:

1st Bluestocking: 36.54secs

2nd Emily Upjohn: 37.12secs

The 0.67secs difference in those finishing efforts is neatly summed up by their final furlong sectionals where Bluestocking was staying on well and Emily Upjohn was weakening.

Final furlong sectionals:

1st Bluestocking: 12.66secs

2nd Emily Upjohn: 13.33secs

A strong staying performance from Bluestocking who will head to the Nassau Stakes where it’s possible the cheekpieces she wore when winning at York will be reapplied because she travelled a good deal better there than on this occasion.

As for Emily Upjohn, for the third race in succession things have not gone her way, but this should not detract from the fact that her engine is still very much intact. She is a strong travelling mare with a devastating turn of foot. She won the Coronation Cup at Epsom in 2023 by surging from last to first with a 10th furlong of 10.55secs and 11th of 10.91secs.

In order to utilise that speed she needs to harness her energy for a late effort, That is never going to be possible if she is posted wide without cover running freely and then being committed just under three furlongs from home. All those factors contributed to her slow final furlong which allowed Bluestocking to catch her. Essentially, she needs dropping out preferably in a race that is run at a decent gallop, a pacemaker for her would not be a bad idea. She will come good this season at some point and the Yorkshire Oaks could be the day.

Los Angeles is too classy in strong Derby performance

Dubai Duty Free Irish Derby

LOS Angeles put up a much better performance than he did at Epsom, displaying hitherto unknown quality. This was a top-class performance and that is evidenced by the data. Los Angeles clocked a final time of 2m28.15 (Time Index score 10) which was 4.85 secs under the Racing Post standard. In so doing he was able to finish the race relatively strongly recording an FSP of 103.66%.

This fast time was courtesy of a strong gallop set by stable companion Euphoric. The first seven furlongs were run evenly with the pace picking up with five furlongs to go. Los Angeles accelerated through those five furlongs and sustained that speed until tiring in the final furlong. This speed is perhaps why Ryan Moore, when interviewed after the race, suggested that Los Angeles was too classy for the St Leger. His closing splits are detailed below.

Los Angeles sectionals:

F7: 12.76secs

F8: 11.96secs

F9: 11.88secs

F10: 11.77secs

F11: 11.26secs

F12: 12.70secs

Those numbers show that he is not just a stayer, he has a change of gear and his penultimate furlong of 11.26secs (39.47mph) was particularly impressive. He could not show his speed in the Epsom Derby because he sat too close to a very strong gallop.

His fastest sectional at Epsom was through the ninth furlong where he clocked 12.22secs (37.29mph) which added weight to the opinion that he was a one-paced stayer. That is clearly not the case. The speed he showed on Sunday showed he has another string to his bow and suggests with a more patient ride at Epsom he would have finished second to City of Troy.

There is every chance that he could run in the King George VI and Queen Elizabeth Stakes at Ascot for which connections also have Auguste Rodin. He is generally available at 10/1 which is a big price if we could be sure he was going to take part.

Henri tailor-made for Guineas

Gain Railway Stakes

HENRI Matisse’s performance has 2000 Guineas written all over it. Amidst inexperience he accelerated from the back of the field to win impressively.

This was a strongly run race and there was clearly some benefit to being held up. Nonetheless Henri Matisse produced some very impressive data. He was the only horse in the race to produce two back-to-back sub-11.00secs furlongs. He was the fastest horse in the race through the fourth and fifth furlongs.

Henri Matisse sectionals:

Furlong 4: 10.84secs

Furlong 5: 10.97secs

He was also fastest through the final furlong with a 12.34secs split compared to the runner-up who recorded 12.60secs.

To be fastest through each of the final three furlongs displays his dominance over this field and tells us that he was value for more than the half-length winning margin. He looks set to forge a path towards the 2000 Guineas next year for which he is generally the 16/1 favourite.