THE best performances at the Ayr Gold Cup meeting last weekend were on the sprint course. Fast ground and a tailwind contributed to quick times and impressive data. The sprint division this year has failed to deliver a superstar, but there is depth to the division, even if there has not been one outstanding performance.
This week, I look at the performances of Lethal Levi, Star Of Lady M and Alfa Kellenic and look at what they achieved, and the results may surprise you.
Virgin Bet Ayr Gold Cup Handicap
Lethal Levi is in the form of his life. He came into this contest having won a seven-furlong Class 2 Handicap at Newbury and the drop back to six furlongs here was no problem. The fast conditions suited his point and shoot tactics and he set a new track record of 1m 7.75s, which was 0.34s faster than Alfa Kellenic an hour earlier.
Lethal Levi rated evenly towards the stands side and recording an FSP of 99.85%, which shows that he was 0.37% quicker than Alfa Kellenic in the final two furlongs. Just like Star Of Lady M and Alfa Kellenic, his FSP reveals that he was rated evenly, and this can be seen from his run line, which is compared with Alfa Kellenic.
Lethal Levi sectionals:
F2: 10.40s (-0.01s)
F3: 10.46s (+0.04s)
F4: 10.39s (+0.06s)
F5: 10.88s (+0.06s)
F6: 11.74s (+0.14s)
Those numbers display his superiority. Even if the margins are narrow, the cumulative effect is significant. Their final two-furlong splits are recorded below, whilst keeping in mind Star Of Lady M recorded 22.18s:
Final two-furlong splits:
Alfa Kellenic: 22.82s
Lethal Levi: 22.62s
The difference amounts to Lethal Levi being just over a length quicker than Alfa Kellenic in the final quarter-mile.
In essence, this made up most of the difference between the two performances. There is a small difference in how they started the race as well. The Race IQ 0-20mph break speed data reveals that Lethal Levi was marginally sharper into stride and that both were faster than Star Of Lady M.
Break Speed 0-20mph:
Lethal Levi: 2.35s (3rd fastest in race)
Alfa Kellenic: 2.41s (4th fastest in race)
Star Of Lady M: 2.51s (4th fastest in race)
The fast ground and tailwind led to three excellent performances in races that were run in a manner that was conducive to fast times and the data tells us that Lethal Levi put up a marginally better performance than Alfa Kellenic. However, the outstanding data produced by Star Of Lady M on slightly slower ground must be recognised. She is a very smart sprinter.
Arran Scottish Sprint EBF Fillies Stakes
STAR Of Lady M has been a revelation this season, winning six races and progressing from a handicapper winning off an official mark of 75 to a listed winner with valuable blacktype to her name. She made all the running to break the track record by over a second.
Her final time of 1m 1.30s was 2.62s under the Race IQ par figure for a race of this standard at Ayr on good ground. It was the best time of the day and one of the best at the meeting, garnering a Race IQ Time Index score of 9.97 out of 10, with the average score on the day being 7.38.
Race IQ Time Index Scores:
Star Of Lady M: 9.97 (Meeting average 7.38)
Alfa Kellenic: 9.98 (Meeting average 7.94)
Lethal Levi: 9.99 9Meeting average 7.94)
Star Of Lady M made all the running with the conditions favouring her and showed sustained speed to record a Finishing Speed Percentage (FSP) of 100.35%. Her mid-race pace saw her record 10.29s through F3 and 10.35 through F4. That was too fast for her rivals and, in the final furlong, she recorded the fastest split in the race of 11.43s.
Her fastest furlong of 10.29s was a faster furlong than either Alfa Kellenic or Lethal Levi could produce. Their fastest furlongs and the speed they reached is detailed below:
Star Of Lady M: F3 10.29s (43.77mph)
Alfa Kellenic: F2 10.39s (43.42mph)
Lethal Levi: F4 10.39s (43.41mph)
Whichever way you extrapolate the data, there is little doubt that Star Of Lady M was a very impressive winner and can be rated as one of the most improved horses in racing, although Alfa Kellenic is a contender for that accolade.
Virgin Bet Ayr Silver Cup
Alfa Kellenic has won six times in a row, progressing from winning a maiden at Newcastle in January to landing this competitive handicap off a mark of 93. She recorded a winning time of 1m 8.09secs, which was a new track record - albeit it an hour later Lethal Levi would run even faster and take that record from her.
Just like Star of Lady M, she recorded her fast final time by running evenly. She recorded an FSP of 99.48%, showing that she was able to sustain her speed as demonstrated by her four sub-11.00s furlongs. She was the only horse in the field to dip under 11.00s on four consecutive occasions.
Alfa Kellenic sectionals:
F2: 10.39s
F3: 10.50s
F4: 10.45s
F5: 10.94s
F6: 11.88s
Star Of Lady M also ran four sub-11.00s furlongs on the bounce and even though Alfa Kellenic and Lethal Levi raced over half a furlong further they were slower than her through the final quarter mile.
Alfa Kellenic is worthy of a sectional upgrade in that she was drawn in stall 22 and found herself away from the pace which came from the lower drawn horses on the other side of the track.
She had to go in pursuit of those pacesetters earlier than her jockey would have wanted to and she wandered all the way across the track to join them. This would suggest that she is a bit better than the bare result and that blacktype would be well within her capabilities.