THE Dewhurst winner Shadow Of Light is a 2000 Guineas contender on the back of this performance and, if he doesn’t stay, the Commonwealth Cup is an alternative.
The Dewhurst was steadily run for three furlongs, with each split being rated as slow against the Race IQ Par sectionals, but there was a sharp injection of pace with four furlongs to go, making it a fair test at the trip. Shadow Of Light recorded an FSP of 102.34%.
His relative fast finish courtesy of him not getting racing as soon as his nearest pursuers. The final two-furlong splits of the first two are below.
1st Shadow Of Light: 24.20s
2nd Expanded: 24.76s
Much of the discrepancy lies in the final furlong, where Expanded weakened and recorded a slower than Par sectional. The data suggests that Ancient Truth and Expanded, who raced alone on the stands’ side, got at it too soon.
Ancient Truth moved up to sit upsides Expanded through the fourth furlong, recording 11.44s compared to 11.66s for Shadow Of Light, who could do his own thing on the far side of the track. The fifth furlong saw Expanded and Ancient Truth take each other on, recording a sectional of 11.10s and 11.21s respectively. All this while, Shadow Of Light was able to save more energy than them with a split of 11.34s.
This premature effort by Ancient Truth undoubtedly compromised Expanded’s chance of winning and, although Shadow Of Light deserves plenty of credit for coming across the track while quickening, it may well have been a different story had Ryan Moore been allowed to do his own thing on the stands’ side.
Shadow Of Light is a live and worthy contender for the 2000 Guineas, but if he is, then Expanded belongs in the same bracket.
DESERT Flower and Lake Victoria dominate the 1000 Guineas market and Desert Flower put up the best time performance over the two days of the Future Champions Meeting at Newmarket last week. Her Race IQ time index score of 7.2 out of 10 was comfortably the best score of the meeting and, consequently, she is now trading at 4/1 for the 1000 Guineas next season.
She is preceded in the market by Lake Victoria, who trades as the 7/2 favourite. Both are unbeaten in four starts and the data they have produced makes for fascinating analysis and makes it hard to split them, in terms of what they have achieved so far.
Desert Flower vs Lake Victoria
Both fillies have plenty of speed. At the Curragh on ‘Good to Firm’ ground on her debut, Lake Victoria posted the fastest furlong of 10.96s and a top speed of 41.56mph in a race that was run at a steady tempo.
By contrast, Desert Flower on her second start at Newmarket, produced a 10.79s furlong reaching a top speed of 41.75mph and this race was also conducted at a modest pace.
In these races, both fillies showed that they have plenty of speed and can cope with a steady pace, but in terms of raw speed attained competitively, Desert Flower edges the contest.
Such speed is impressive from both fillies, but it was achieved in races that were not run at strong tempos. Lake Victoria faced a strong gallop when she won the Moyglare Stud Stakes at the Curragh on ‘Good’ ground, where she quickened from the back of the field, recording a fifth furlong of 11.00s and reaching a top speed of 41.15mph.
Desert Flower has also faced a strong gallop on ‘Good’ ground and that was on her debut at Newmarket, where she also quickened well, posting a fastest furlong of 11.05s and a top speed of 40.57mph.
They can both clearly cope with a strong pace, with their turn of speed being their main asset.
Their speed is aided when they encounter decent ground, although both have shown their effectiveness with cut in the ground on their latest starts.
These performances are hard to compare, given that they came over six furlongs and a mile, but what we can say for sure is that we know Desert Flower will stay the Guineas trip, while we cannot be sure Lake Victoria will, even if her pedigree suggests she should have little problem getting it.
In winning the Group 1 Fillies Mile, Desert Flower faced a strongly run race on easy ground. While on her previous starts she was able to quicken and finish strongly off modest tempos on decent ground, this was a different test.
Her Finishing Speed percentage on the day was 99.62%, with the Race IQ par sectionals showing that she finished her race evenly, whilst her nearest rivals finished slowly. This suggests she saw the mile out strongly and displayed that she is not just a filly with a sharp turn of foot.
The edge
This is where Desert Flower currently has the edge on Lake Victoria, whose speed has been impressive, but we do not know how she will cope with a strongly run mile. She was strong in the finish in the Moyglare over seven furlongs, with her final two furlongs recorded as being 23.38s, which was 0.54s quicker than Simmering in second place and she ran faster than the Race IQ Par sectional when recording 12.31s in the final furlong of the Cheveley Park.
All evidence is pointing to her being just as potent at a mile, but unlike Desert Flower, we cannot be sure.
Desert Flower has a long raking stride, as evidenced by the Race IQ strides data. In her four races, she has recorded a higher average stride length than Lake Victoria and a lower cadence, which suggests that she will always be suited by good ground or faster, which makes her fillies mile victory even more meritorious. Their average stride lengths are displayed below.
Career average stride lengths
Desert Flower: 7.55 metres
Lake Victoria: 7.29 metres
It may be that Desert Flower will be the stronger stayer of the two given this data, yet Lake Victoria’s superior cadence suggests she could be a faster filly. She can grab the ground with her quick action and quicken, whereas Desert Flower gets faster by lengthening her stride.
The small difference in the two perhaps lies in ground conditions. A higher cadence is better suited to easier ground and it could be that Lake Victoria will be able to quicken better on an easier surface than Desert Flower, whose career and stride data suggests fast ground will always suit her best.
This may be the only variable that splits them in the market, their ability evenly matched according to the data and reflected in the market.