THE spine-tingling reception that Galopin Des Champs received when returning to the winner’s enclosure at Leopardstown last Saturday was a reminder of just how engaging and united this sport can be.
The massed ranks of supporters who attended the Dublin Racing Festival roared home 15 winners, each afforded a special reception and deservedly so, given the quality of the action that we saw on the track.
There were many talking points and much debate as people analysed the action through the prism of the Cheltenham Festival.
Debate in the sport is essential, as it creates excitement and engages people in the sport and, when data can be incorporated into that debate, we can add another layer of understanding.
These are some of the performances from last weekend that have produced interesting data, that may support or refute the visual impressions that were created. I will start with a few general points.
Finishing Speed Percentage
The fastest Finishing Speed Percentage at the meeting was recorded by Galopin Des Champs. His final four furlong split gave him an FSP of 111.50%.
The slowest finish at the meeting was State Man in the Irish Champion Hurdle with an FSP of 94.88% but he sauntered home and the figure is distorted because of this.
More relevant in this category is Solness in the Ladbrokes Dublin Chase, who finished the final four furlongs of the Champion Chase with a tired FSP of 95.21%.
The best jumping performance at the meeting according to the Race IQ data came from Majborough in the Goffs Irish Arkle Novices Chase. He recorded a Jump Index of 9.6.
Of all the 13 winners over obstacles at the meeting, Ballyburn put up the least efficient jumping performance with a Jump Index of 7.4.
Figures in isolation give us a snapshot of what occurred, but they need context and the best way to start is with the supremely talented Galopin Des Champs.
Three Irish Gold Cups secured, and he seems to be getting better, which is ominous for those who dare to take him on at Cheltenham.
This was not a test of stamina. It was a steadily-run contest dominated after the fourth fence by Galopin Des Champs and turning into a four-furlong dash.
His FSP of 111.50% was the fastest at the meeting, courtesy of him saving energy through the first two and a half miles. He needed that finishing kick because all his rivals finished relatively strongly, all recording an FSP above 100%.
Galopin has improved for being allowed to race prominently. He made all in the Savills Chase in December, where he also produced a fast finish (FSP: 110.50%).
This is not to condemn his performance, because we know from his Cheltenham Gold Cup performance last year that he is a strong stayer, but he clearly has plenty of speed for a stayer.
His jumping has improved since he has been allowed to race prominently. In the Savills, he put up a career best jumping display, with a jump index of 8 and he bettered that here with an 8.7, which accords with some of the spectacular leaps that we saw from him.
Inothewayurthinking shaped very well in fourth place. The test of speed did not suit him but he was strong at the line, completing the final furlong in 14.75s, which was identical to the split achieved by Galopin Des Champs and faster than both Grangeclare West and Fact To File, who finished in front of him.
He jumped very efficiently recording a jump index of 8.7 and is one to bear in mind for the Grand National, for which he is generally available at 14/1.
MAJBOROUGH made all under a well-judged ride from Mark Walsh in the Goffs Irish Arkle Novices Chase, quickening clear three furlongs out to win by nine lengths.
It was a dominant performance, which may have not worried all of Sir Gino’s Arkle supporters, but most will be nervous.
He is a fast horse, both on the level and over his fences. Off an even gallop, he quickened well to record an FSP of 104.84%. This fast finish was courtesy of him being able to quicken through F15, where he recorded a rapid 12.94s and followed that with 13.94s through F16. None of his rivals could live with this speed, with their final four-furlong times significantly inferior.
Final Four Furlong Splits:
1st: Majborough: 56.44s
2nd: Touch Me Not: 57.90s
3rd: Firefox: 57.58s
4th: Jeannot Lapin: 58.30s
His speed on the flat was matched by some fast and efficient jumps. Some were not entirely convinced with his jumping, but the data is very positive and rates this as the most efficient round of jumping at the meeting.
He recorded a Race IQ Jump index of 9.6 out of 10 and gained 8.81 lengths on the field. He averaged a speed loss over the 11 fences of 3.44mph, which compares very favourably with Solness, who won the Ladbrokes Dublin Chase over the same trip and recorded an average speed loss of 4.84mph.
This jumping performance was slightly better than his debut at Fairyhouse, where he recorded a jump index of 9.2, both performances highlighting his quick and efficient jumping style.
A comparison with Sir Gino is difficult to make. The only data-driven comparison that is possible is to compare their jumping efficiency and Majborough rates as more efficient with his 9.6 than Sir Gino with his 8.0 at Kempton over Christmas.
This is not reflected in the Arkle betting, with Majborough a generous looking 11/4 compared to Sir Gino at 8/11.
THE Grade 1 Ladbrokes Dublin Chase was the strongest run race of the festival. The strong early pace sapped all the runners of energy and the ability to post strong finishes. All of the runners recorded sub 100% FSPs.
1st: Solness: FSP 95.21%
2nd: Marine Nationale FSP 98.24%
3rd: Gaelic Warrior FSP 98.11%
4th: Quilixios FSP 92.52%
That Marine Nationale could record the strongest finish in the race does him a lot of credit, given that he raced closest to the strong pace set by the winner.
The data suggests this race was a case of the winner establishing a lead through a fast opening five furlongs and then staying on gamely while tired through the final half mile.
Solness completed the first mile 8.31s faster than Majborough in the Irish Arkle, who had raced evenly, and it is understandable why the other jockeys let Danny Mullins establish a long lead, thinking he had gone too fast.
While Majborough posted his fastest furlong of 12.94s through F16, Solness produced his fastest of 13.10s through F3 using all his speed at the beginning rather than the end of the race.
The lengths that he gained early in the race were vital and although Marine Nationale and Gaelic Warrior were faster than Solness through the final four furlongs, they could not reel him in.
Final Four Furlong splits
1st: Solness: 61.14s
2nd:: Marine Nationale: 59.38s
3rd: Gaelic Warrior: 60.10s
Solness jumped well with a jump index of 8.3, Marine Nationale 7.8 and Gaelic Warrior 8.1 were also efficient, but it is interesting that Solness gained ground on them both throughout the race. He was 4.61 lengths better at his fences than Marine Nationale and 5.62 lengths better than Gaelic Warrior. This allied to the fast pace and the lead that he established secured him victory, but whether such tactics will work again at Cheltenham is very much open to question. One thing is for sure there will be no hiding place in March if Solness executes similar tactics.
BALLYBURN had looked far from a natural over fences in his two starts prior to this. When he won on debut at Punchestown, he recorded a below average Jump Index of 6.7 and then, behind Sir Gino, he was even less efficient with a 6.1.
He improved here in the Ladbrokes Novice Chase with a relatively steady pace enabling him to measure his fences better and record a figure of 7.4.
While this is an improvement, it was still the least efficient winning jumping performance at the meeting.
Improvement in his jumping may come when he races over further, and he does seem to retain all of the ability he showed over hurdles, given that Croke Park in second was 10.78 lengths better than Ballyburn over the 14 fences, yet Ballyburn was able to beat him by five lengths.
Ballyburn impressed with his attitude, as he finished the race strongly off what had been a steady gallop. His final four furlongs of 56.45s was 1.00s faster than Croke Park and evidence that Ballyburn will be better over further is supplied by how strongly he hit the line with his final furlong of 14.63s comparing to 15.59s for Croke Park.
A very talented racehorse who is a slow burner over fences. The key to him may be when he steps up to three miles, but for now his jumping remains an issue.
THE most impressive winner of the weekend, after thrashing Karniquet by 13 lengths, was Kopek Des Bordes in the Tattersalls Ireland Novice Hurdle.
The pace was a good one and Kopek Des Bordes raced in touch before taking up the running after a mile and then quickened three furlongs out to record an FSP of 103.21%. The runner-up was the only other horse in the race to record a relatively strong finish with an FSP of 100.60%.
This win is routed in relentless speed through the final four furlongs, which includes a third-last furlong of 13.51s, where he was the only horse to dip under 14.00s. His dominance in the final part of the race is displayed through the final four-furlong data,
1st: Kopek Des Bordes: 58.11s
2nd: Karniquet: 60.32s
3rd: Good and Clever 62.57s
It is of interest that Majborough completed his final four furlongs in 56.44s, further evidence of his awesome ability.
Kopek Des Bordes jumped much better here than he did at Leopardstown on his hurdling debut, where he got away with a poor round of jumping, recording a jump index of 5.6.
On this occasion, he was far more efficient with a score of 8.0 and he gained 10.72 lengths on the field over his hurdles.
His improved jumping and the ability to quicken and sustain his speed makes him a worthy favourite for the Supreme Novices hurdle in a division that had thus far looked quite weak, but he has added an extra dimension with this stellar performance.
ONE winner that might go under the radar as far as Cheltenham is concerned is Backtonormal, who will be a serious contender for a Festival Handicap.
This Gavin Cromwell-trained gelding was gambled on in his first start in a handicap over fences and bolted up in the Grade 3 O’Driscolls Irish Whiskey Leopardstown Handicap Chase. A rise in the weights from a mark of 130 is unlikely to stop him winning again.
Backtonormal has a fine turn of foot. He quickened from seventh place to second between the three-furlong and two-furlong pole with a split of 12.83s (34.60mph) and was then quickest through each of the next two furlongs to win cosily with an FSP of 109.00%.
That 12.83s furlong was the fastest recorded by any horse at the Dublin Racing Festival, which is a remarkable piece of data given the quality on show over the two days.
He is a good jumper recording a jump index of 8.0 here and he would be effective at two miles given his speed, but two and a half on decent ground at Cheltenham will be right up his street and, with that in mind, he is available at 10/1 for the TrustATrader Plate at the Festival.