LAKE Victoria sprinted to the head of the 1000 Guineas market after impressing with the manner of her success in the Group 1 Juddmonte Cheveley Park Stakes at Newmarket last Saturday.
Over the same six-furlong trip, Shadow Of Light looked just as impressive, when landing the Juddmonte Middle Park Stakes, although his 2000 Guineas credentials are less obvious with the Commonwealth Cup being mentioned by connections as a likely target next year.
Utilising the Race IQ data, I will put those performances under the sectional microscope, to see if the data backs up what we witnessed from both at the weekend.
A good starting point is to compare their performances in terms of final times and add a Race IQ time index score to those scores.
Final times Cheveley Park and Middle Park Stakes
Lake Victoria: 1m 11.94s Time Index Score: 8.12
Shadow Of Light: 1m 12.29s Time Index Score: 7.54
The faster time achieved by Lake Victoria is interesting, but final times can be misleading without analysis of how they were achieved.
Lake Victoria featured in this column, when she won at the Moyglare Stud Stakes at the Curragh. Over seven furlongs in a strongly run race, she quickened from the back of the field to run down her rivals with a fifth furlong of 11.00s and a sixth of 11.16s.
Her speed won her the race, reaching an impressive 41.15mph. She was ridden more prominently in the Cheveley Park Stakes, but once again it was her speed that characterised her win, although caution is required in comparing the two performances, given the softer conditions she encountered at Newmarket.
At Newmarket, she was rated evenly close to the pace by Ryan Moore. Her Finishing Speed Percentage (FSP) of 101.96% was slightly above the Race IQ par figure of 100.39% showing that unlike the Moyglare, where her speed was conserved for a fast finish, this time her pace was distributed evenly through the race, as evidenced by her individual sectionals.
Lake Victoria sectionals compared to Race IQ Par sectionals
F1: 12.40s (Par)
F2: 11.38s (Slow)
F3: 11.30s (Par)
F4: 11.34s (Par)
F5: 11.21s (Par)
F6: 12.31s (Fast)
Furlong five was where she quickened and then she produced a faster than expected final furlong.
That final furlong may seem slow on paper, but it was faster than Par and contributed to a final two furlong split of 23.52s, Daylight in second was 0.40s slower, which under the conditions equates to two and a quarter lengths.
Lake Victoria won because of the sustained speed that she was able to show, in essence she was able to run faster for longer than all her rivals, but as in the Moyglare, it was her speed that the data identifies as her main asset, even if it was distributed in different ways.
High cadence
Stride analysis shows that she has a high cadence rather than a long stride. She recorded the highest average cadence of 2.45 strides per second in both races.
This means she works harder to cover the same amount of ground as a long-striding horse, but she can cover that ground faster and is able to quicken by increasing her cadence in the race.
This begs the question as to whether she will be able to maintain her high cadence when racing over a mile next season?
A steadily run 1000 Guineas would play to her strength, which is her speed, but it’s not certain that a strongly run race would do the same. This year, the Guineas was very strongly run and suited those whose main asset was their ability to see out a strongly run mile rather than their speed.
The first four home all recorded a longer stride length than Lake Victoria, but in her last two starts, her cadence was recorded as being higher than them.
The Fillies Mile is a possible target for her, and it will be fascinating to see how she adapts to the extra distance. One thing is for sure, if we could be sure that she will be as effective at a mile, then her price of 7/2 for the Guineas would be very fair, but we don’t know that and there is also the existence of some very talented fillies in her stable, such as Fairy Godmother and Bedtime Story, who are also legitimate contenders for the 1000 Guineas.
AS per the Cheveley Park Stakes, Shadow Of Light’s winning performance in the Group 1 Juddmonte Middle Park Stakes was all about speed, as it should be over six furlongs.
Even though the final time he recorded was slower than Lake Victoria, the way he achieved his final time suggests he is a very fast horse, who may not even be considered a 2000 Guineas prospect.
This was his third win of the season, his only defeat coming in the Gimcrack at York, where he was a bit keen and the Good to Firm ground may have been a bit quick for him.
There was a slighter slower tempo in this race compared to the Cheveley Park allowing for a faster finish.
Shadow Of Light recorded an FSP of 103.53% with a final two furlong split of 23.28s (Lake Victoria 23.52s).
He raced just off the pace and saved energy for that strong finish, showing sustained speed through furlongs four and five and producing a faster than Par final two furlongs. His sectionals are below.
Shadow Of Light sectionals compared to
Par and rated against Lake Victoria
F1: 14.89s (Very Slow)
F2: 11.48s (Par)
F3: 11.36s (Par)
F4: 11.28s (Par)
F5: 11.24s (Fast)
F6: 12.04s (Very Fast)
Lake Victoria was 2.65s faster than Shadow Of Light through the first three furlongs and therein lies the reason for Shadow Of Light recording a much faster final furlong than the filly.
The speed he showed was sustained and impressive with two furlongs of 11.28s and 11.24s taking him clear of his field. Yet Lake Victoria recorded the fastest furlong with an 11.21s through the penultimate furlong, achieved off a stronger gallop, which outlines her superiority over him.
He displayed a shorter average stride length in the race and a lower cadence than Lake Victoria, which serves to underline that she is the better prospect of the two.
The way Shadow Of Light finished his race suggests that he will have no problem staying seven furlongs.
Given the data produced, if Shadow Of Light is considered fast enough to run in a Commonwealth Cup, then Lake Victoria would be more than capable of such an assignment.
What makes her much more exciting is her potential to be good over a mile, good luck to the other fillies if she is even better at that trip.