A CHANGING of the guard or just early skirmishes before the status quo is re-established in March? This is just one of the considerations that emerges out of a fascinating weekend of action at Punchestown. What has been established is that both the Champion Hurdle and Gold Cup pictures have been invigorated by the young pretenders, who upset the old guard, with promise of plenty more to come.

The data produced in the Morgiana Hurdle and John Durkan Memorial Chase comes under the sectional microscope this week, along with the return of Ballyburn, who made his chasing debut on Saturday.

Brighterdaysahead

State Man suffered his first ever defeat on Irish soil in the Grade 1 Unibet Morgiana Hurdle at the hands of very talented mare, Brighterdaysahead.

State Man dominated this division last year, but on this evidence, he is going to find life a lot tougher this season.

Brighterdaysahead did have the benefit of a run this season and was receiving the 7lb mares’ allowance, but there was a lot to like about the way she battled back, when headed by State Man going to the last.

The race was run at an even tempo, with Brighterdaysahead making the running and recording a Finishing Speed Percentage of 104% meaning with a final four furlongs of 58.13s, she ran the final four furlongs 4% faster than the previous mile and a half.

Jack Kennedy increased the pace with three furlongs to go, recording a 13.88s furlong compared to 14.01s for State Man.

Thereafter, State Man responded with a penultimate furlong of 13.85s, as he went in pursuit of the mare and briefly got his head in front, but he paid for that effort and Brighterdaysahead was faster than him in the final furlong.

Final Furlong Splits:

1st Brighterdaysahead: 15.51s

2nd State Man: 15.66s

State Man was not helped by a mistake at the last flight, but that mistake was visually exaggerated by the superb leap from Brighterdaysahead, who gained 5.25 lengths on the field at that hurdle alone.

That moment captures why State Man will continue to be vulnerable this season. While he is a very talented hurdler, he is not the best of jumpers and, although he got away with some moderate rounds of jumping last season, the same may not be the case against some of the younger generation, who are now firmly in the Champion Hurdle picture.

Brighterdaysahead looks set for the Mares’ Hurdle at Cheltenham, but getting the sex allowance means she would be a player in the Champion Hurdle.

THE Grade 1 John Durkan Memorial Punchestown Chase was the race of the season so far, with a thrilling finish won by the thoroughly progressive Fact To File, who has propelled himself to the top of the market for the Cheltenham Gold Cup.

Fact To File and Mark Walsh (far) win the John Durkan Memorial from Galopin Des Champs \ Healy Racing

Galopin Des Champs made the running setting an even gallop that allowed the first four home to save energy for a relatively fast finish. Their finishing efforts are represented by their Finishing Speed Percentages below.

1st Fact To File: 104.18%

2nd Spillanes Tower: 104.52%

3rd Galopins Des Champs: 102.11%

4th Fastorslow: 101.58%

It is interesting that Spillanes Tower had had the highest FSP. He was briefly outpaced turning for home, but finished his race strongly and was 0.31s faster than the winner through the final furlong.

He has only raced once at three miles, when winning the Grade 1 Champion Novice Chase at Punchestown last season and he has untapped potential at that trip.

Galopin Des Champs made the running and quickened the pace three furlongs out with a 14.06s furlong. This was the fastest furlong posted by any horse in the race, but that effort seemed to take its toll, as he weakened through the final two furlongs in the style of a horse who needed the run. His final furlong of 16.13s was 0.57s slower than the winner.

Big and slow

That impression is backed up by his jumping in the latter stages of the race. He was big and slow over the second last, giving away 2.14 lengths to Fact To File and losing 6.7mph.

He was slightly better at the last, but still lost 1.15 lengths on Fact To File. He will be better for the run and his engine is clearly still intact, a general price of 4/1 for the Cheltenham Gold Cup looking too big.

Fact To File got a good trip around the inside and jumped well. He gained 6.48 lengths with his jumping, only to be bettered in the race by the habitual good jumper Fastorslow, who gained 8.42 lengths.

Fact To File was particularly good at the second last, where he outjumped the field, gaining an impressive 3.21 lengths with this leap alone. This was the best jumping performance of his chasing career and, that he could do this when the pace was solid, augurs well for future championship races.

The data suggests we should be very positive about the race and hail the emergence of Fact To File and Spillanes Tower as genuine Gold Cup contenders, with Galopin Des Champs showing that he is unlikely to give up his crown lightly.

IT was a satisfactory start to Ballyburn’s chasing career in the beginners’ chase. He made all the running, winning by 13 lengths. The data suggests that this was not a case of him getting an easy lead out in front.

While he was not pressured for the lead, he still went a strong even gallop, recording an FSP of 102.95%, which tells us he saw the race out strongly, recording 61.95s for the final four furlongs, which was 2.22s faster than the runner-up.

While visually he seemed to jump well, his lengths gained jumping data suggests there is room for improvement.

He managed to gain a 3.39 length advantage through the race, with both the second and third recording better numbers as below.

Lengths Gained Jumping:

1st Ballyburn: +3.39

2nd Ocastle Des Mottes: +7.04

3rd Release The Beast: +9.2

That positive figure for Ballyburn is courtesy of a good jump at the last, where he gained 3.78 lengths, without which his overall Lengths Gained Jumping figure would have been a negative one.

Further evidence that his jumping can improve is provided by the fact that, on average over the 14 jumps, he lost -5.39mph. There were only two other horses in the race that lost more speed on average than him, but he never looked like falling and was accurate enough at his jumps.

He can and probably will improve in terms of his speed over the obstacles and the Arkle remains a legitimate target for this very exciting novice.