THE Champion Hurdle picture became a little clearer at the weekend, with Sir Gino and Lossiemouth both laying down strong markers for Cheltenham honours in March.
With the Constitution Hill conundrum rumbling on, it’s Lossiemouth who rightfully heads the market at 7/4. Even if a fully firing Constitution Hill does make it to Cheltenham, he will have the biggest task of his career in trying to give 7lb to this very talented mare.
The Race IQ data that I use as an analytical tool in this column has a new metric called the Race IQ Jump Index.
What is the RaceIQ Jump Index?
Race IQ Jump Index is a metric that quantifies a horse’s jumping ability at each obstacle, in a race, and throughout its career.
It compares the efficiency, speed and fluency of a horse’s jumps against all those recorded in the Race IQ database.
What is the purpose of the Jump Index?
Unlike Lengths Gained Jumping, the Jump Index assesses a horse’s jumping independent of the competition. It produces a score out of 10, reflecting how well it jumped at an obstacle or in a race.
This allows us to compare the jumping abilities of horses that have never run against each other, regardless of any differences in tracks, ground conditions or race distances.
Before taking a closer look at what Lossiemouth achieved in winning the Hatton’s Grace at Fairyhouse, here are her career Jump Index scores for this year, with a score of 7 considered to be an average performance.
Lossiemouth Jump Index 2024
Fairyhouse: 8.2
Punchestown: 7.5
Cheltenham: 8.2
Cheltenham: 8.4
Her jumping is consistently good and is a major asset when allied to her speed.
The Grade 1 Bar One Racing Hatton’s Grace Hurdle was a steadily run race, with Lossiemouth able to showcase her speed. Her Finishing Speed Percentage (FSP) of 115.01% was the highest of the two-day Fairyhouse meeting.
The pace picked up with four furlongs to run, with Lossiemouth recording faster sectional splits than all her rivals through each individual furlong. Her final four-furlong time of 52.59s was 0.98s faster than Teahupoo, with most of that differential achieved in the final furlong, where Lossiemouth was far superior without being subjected to maximum pressure from Paul Townend.
Final Furlong Sectionals
1st: Lossiemouth: 13.27s
2nd: Teahupoo: 13.99s
She was just too fast for Teahupoo, who finished the race well recording an FSP of 113.21%, but he could not match her raw speed.
He is clearly in good heart and the speed that he did show will once again be a potent weapon over three miles this season.
Teahupoo is not as good a jumper as Lossiemouth, but he did not jump badly here, recording a Jump Index score of 7.8, which compares to 7.5 that he recorded last year.
That improvement was not enough to make up for Lossiemouth’s superior speed though and she is going to be very hard to beat at Cheltenham, even if Constitution Hill does turn up. Lossiemouth surged to the head of the Champion Hurdle market, even though Sir Gino won the Fighting Fifth Hurdle at Newcastle, after which he was installed as the 5/1 third favourite.
Sir Gino - jumping seems to be improving with racing \ Healy Racing
WITH Mystical Power putting up a below par performance in the Grade 1 Bet MGM Fighting Fifth Hurdle, Sir Gino was left with a simple task, seeing off Lump Sum to win by an easy eight lengths.
This race was run at a solid tempo, with Sir Gino recording an FSP of 103.43% in a race that was not as much a test of speed as the Hatton’s Grace.
He travelled strongly and ran on well for pressure after the last to record a final four furlongs of 54.06s, which was 1.40s quicker than Lump Sum in second.
His fastest furlong of 13.01s took him to the front with two furlongs to go and he followed that up with a furlong of 13.93s, which saw him be the only horse in the race to dip under 14.00s for that furlong.
Sir Gino is a very good jumper of a hurdle, and it is no surprise that connections dabbled with sending him novice chasing this season. His Race IQ jump indices for all his four wins in the UK are testament to that.
Sir Gino Jump Index
Newcastle: 8.5
Aintree: 7.6
Cheltenham: 6.7
Kempton: 6.5
His jumping seems to be improving with racing and he will not lose out to Lossiemouth in this department, but she may well have too much speed for him.
The top speed that she has recorded in her career is 36.11mph at Cheltenham in January, the best that Sir Gino has clocked is 35.39mph, which was also at Cheltenham last January.
A clash between the two will make for fascinating viewing, a clash that I believe will show us that Lossiemouth is the best two-mile hurdler around.
THE Grade 1 Bar One Drinmore Novices Chase was a steadily-run contest with Croke Park dominating from the front and gradually winding up the pace.
He had struggled in Grade 1 contests over hurdles, but showed improved form here to remain unbeaten in two starts over fences. He was able to save plenty of energy to narrowly repel Heart Wood and Firefox in a tight finish.
He recorded an FSP of 113.85%, but his three closest pursuers all finished faster than him, which indicates that making the running was on this occasion a big advantage.
Finishing Speed Percentages
1st Croke Park: 113.85%
2nd Heart Wood: 113.90%
3rd Firefox: 114.26%
4th Georgeous Tom: 114.03%
5th Shecouldbeanything: 112.68%
Croke Park was helped by his excellent jumping. He recorded a Race IQ jump index value of 9.0 out of 10, indicating just how efficient he was. Firefox in third also jumped well, recording the same score.
Heart Wood, who finished second, may well have won if he had jumped better. His Jump Index of 7.8 showed him to be nowhere near as fluent as his closest rivals and the Race IQ Lengths metric indicates that he lost 6.93 lengths compared to Croke Park with his jumping and 1.43 of that deficit came at the last, where Heart Wood made a costly mistake.
Heart Wood loses his novice status now, but he remains one to be interested in over further than two miles, with more cut in the ground.
A muddling contest, but both Firefox and Croke Park will be competitive in future Grade 1 contests, given how well they have taken to fences.