THE National Hunt season is coming to life now albeit hampered by the dry weather, which has meant that trainers have been reluctant to run their horses. Nonetheless, we witnessed some excellent action last week, particularly in Ireland and some of those performances are put under the sectional microscope in this week’s column.
Barberstown Castle Chase (Grade 3)
Quilixios made an impressive winning seasonal reappearance, defeating Marine Nationale by seven and a half lengths. Henry de Bromhead has his horses in tremendous form, and this was a career best from this horse, who made all the running and surged clear in the closing stages.
His final time of 3m 57.90s was the best time of the day. The useful novice Farren Cross, who won the following Novice Chase over the same trip, recorded 4m 11.90s, which puts into perspective what Quilixios achieved here.
The data he produced paints a positive picture. He was able to dictate an even gallop, which allowed all the runners to save energy for strong finishes, as evidenced by their Finishing Speed Percentages.
1. Quilixios: 104.79%
2. Marine Nationale: 103.45%
3. Hercule Du Seuil: 101.06%
4. Lucid Dreams: 100.44%
5. Miss Gherkin: 101.60%
There is no doubt that Quilixios benefitted from getting a relatively easy time on the lead, but the way he pulled clear with a final four furlongs of 56.76s compared to Marine Nationale, who recorded 57.80s, is indicative of his dominance. The pace picked up after a mile and a half, with Quilixios quicker than all his rivals through the final three furlongs.
The Race IQ jumping data shows Quilixios jumped much better than his rivals. He gained 6.99 lengths on the field over the 10 obstacles, with all the other runners losing lengths through their jumping.
Race IQ Lengths Gained Jumping:
1. Quilixios: +6.99 Lengths
2. Marine Nationale: -3.4 Lengths
3. Hercule Du Seuil: -0.09 Lengths
4. Lucid Dreams: -1.28 Lengths
5. Miss Gherkin: - 7.25 Lengths
This is a typical profile for Quilixios, who has gained lengths with his accurate jumping in four of his six races over fences. He looks ready for Grade 1 company once again at two miles, where his ability to sustain his speed will be a major asset, particularly if he gets his own way in front.
Marine Nationale was having his third run over fences and, as the data highlights, was far from fluent, but there is some evidence in his jumping data that he blew up two fences from home given how poorly he negotiated those final two obstacles. The speed that he lost is a good indicator of him getting tired compared to Quilixios.
Speed lost at final two obstacles:
Quilixios: -4.75mph / - 4.96mph
Marine Nationale: - 7.09mph / - 8.06mph
Marine Nationale will be better for the run, and we know that he can jump better than he did here. On his debut over fences last season at Leopardstown, he gained 5.70 lengths with his jumping, and we can expect much better from him next time out.
FARREN Glory won the Grade 1 Royal Bond Novice Hurdle last season and got off the mark on his second start over fences. Even though his final time was 14.00s slower than Quilixios, we must always assess performances in terms of how final times are achieved and Farren Glory did well to win as easily as he did, as he put in an indifferent round of jumping.
Like Quilixios he made all the running and did so at a much steadier pace and therefore was able to finish the race faster than Quilixios did.
He recorded an FSP of 112.66% thanks to the modest gallop, which only picked up through the final half-mile. His final four-furlong split was recorded as being 55.90s, which was 0.8s faster than Quilixios, who had used more energy in the earlier part of the race.
That Farren Glory was able to win by seven and a half lengths is testament to his raw ability, because he was tentative at his fences in the early part of the race. He lost 2.95 lengths on the field with some moderate leaps, but he did warm to his task through the race.
At the second, third, fourth and fifth fences, he lost ground and speed on the field before finding his best jump at the last, gaining 1.81 lengths on the field. His ability to find his best at the last suggests he had plenty left in the tank and, with a cleaner round of jumping, would have been an even more impressive winner.
Farren Glory is worth following and it is worth noting that he holds an entry in the Grade 1 Drinmore Novices Chase at Fairyhouse on December 1st.
Quick and slick
The National Hunt Novice Hurdle at Aintree may not have been a race that had a lot of depth, but it produced a very impressive winner in the shape of Mr Meggit, who added to his two bumper wins last season with a facile success on his first start over hurdles.
Although this race was over two and a half miles, he has plenty of speed and would have no problem cutting back in trip. The race was evenly run, with Mr Meggit cruising on the bridle throughout and producing an FSP of 103.09%.
That relatively strong finish was achieved without him being asked for a big effort and he was the only horse in the race to fire a sub-14.00s furlong, that coming through his final furlong of the race, where he recorded 13.55s.
The flat speed that he showed when allied to his speed over the hurdles proved to be a potent weapon. He is a quick, slick jumper, who can recover his full speed quickly having jumped a hurdle. On average, he took 1.06s to recover his entry speed into the hurdles and that, combined with him gaining 3.54 lengths at the hurdles, made him easily the best jumper in the race.
In his three previous runs in bumpers, he showed speed, but this is the most speed he has shown in his career to date and to do that whilst negotiating 11 hurdles is impressive. His career top speeds are detailed below.
Carlisle 05/11/23: 33.27mph
Doncaster 03/03/24: 31.57mph
Aintree: 13/04/24: 32.94mph
Aintree: 09/11/24: 33.96mph
It is something of a dark art trying to predict how much a horse had in reserve when crossing the line as an easy winner, but the inference with Mr Meggit is surely that there is plenty more to come particularly in a strongly run race over two miles.