LAST week I had a look at the first day of the Cheltenham Festival with the performance of Slade Steel, Gaelic Warrior, State Man and Lossiemouth all coming under the sectional microscope. The focus of my attention this week are the performances from the rest of the week that are of analytical interest.

Conditions over the four days were testing. Times suggested that the ground was heavy on the first day, slightly quicker on days two and three before returning to heavy ground on Friday. The data suggests that the jockeys were aware of the testing nature of both the old and new courses and rode accordingly.

Every single race over the four days returned a Finishing Speed Percentage (FSP) above 100% suggesting that, in general, races were steadily run, allowing horses to finish their races strongly. In such conditions the natural assumption would be that horses would finish tired particularly as they faced an uphill finish, but steady early tempos allowed them to save petrol for strong finishes.

When a horse records an FSP above 100% two inferences can be made. Firstly, that the race was steadily-run and secondly that the finish (final four furlongs) was fast in comparison to the earlier part of the race. The three fastest finishes in steadily-run races are detailed below, as are the slower finishes, courtesy of stronger gallops. The slower finishes are probably better described as being a result of even gallops as no race at the Festival was run at a furious pace.

Fastest finishes

Ryanair Mares’ Novices’ Hurdle: Golden Ace 114.16%

BetMGM County Handicap Hurdle: Absurde 112.82%

Brown Advisory Novices’ Chase: Fact To File 110.92%

Slowest finishes

Betway Queen Mother Champion Chase: Captain Guinness 100.02%

Boodles Juv Handicap Hurdle: Lark In The Mornin 101.62%

Ultima Handicap Chase: Chianti Classico 103.04%

Gallagher Novices’ Hurdle: Ballyburn

WHEN Ballyburn won the Grade 1 Brave Inca at Leopardstown over two miles his sectionals revealed that he was a relentless galloper. That was a race run at quite a strong tempo (FSP: 99.25%) and he powered through the final six furlongs dipping under 15secs for four of them. He had the subsequent Supreme and County Hurdle winners behind him.

He faced a different scenario here with the tempo only modest, allowing him to finish strongly and record an FSP of 105.71%.

The step up in trip to two miles and five furlongs at Cheltenham was no problem for Ballyburn who took a lead from stable companion Mercurey and tanked through the race.

In contrast to Leopardstown where he galloped his rivals into submission, this time he showed that he has plenty of speed. His final four furlongs of 58.20secs was 2.26secs faster than the runner-up Jimmy Du Seuil, most of that deficit produced with a fast final furlong of 15.67secs. None of his rivals managed to dip under 17secs.

In terms of jumping, the Race IQ data tells us he was efficient. Overall, he gained 4.25 lengths with his jumping, the majority of which was achieved with a spectacular leap at the last. This was an improvement on Leopardstown where he gained just 0.37 lengths.

It is hard not to conclude that he is the complete package, this race identifying that he has enough speed for a Champion Hurdle should Willie Mullins choose to go down that route.

Betway Queen Mother Champion Chase:

Captain Guinness

WITH El Fabiolo and Elixir De Nutz being pulled up, and Edwardstone falling two out, this race fell apart. But it proved to be a proper test at two miles with an even tempo (FSP: 100.02%) ensuring that there was no hiding place.

Captain Guinness took up the running with three furlongs to run having given no peace to Edwardstone on the lead. He posted a final four furlongs of 63.09secs, the individual splits below showing how tired he was in the final furlong.

Final four-furlong splits: 14.03s, 14.15s, 16.61s, 18.30s

That very slow final furlong allowed the runner-up Gentleman de Mee to briefly threaten with a faster final furlong of 18.14secs.

A slow-motion finish courtesy of the gallop set by Edwardstone and, in attending that pace, Captain Guinness had no petrol left in the final furlong.

In terms of jumping Captain Guinness gained 2.63 lengths, the best in the race with his rivals all failing to jump well. El Fabiolo was pulled up after a bad mistake at the fifth fence which was the culmination of some modest jumps at the preceding four fences.

The Race IQ data tells us that over the first four fences Captain Guinness gained 2.14 lengths on El Fabiolo who made minor mistakes, but those mistakes caused a significant loss of speed for the favourite.

He lost more speed than all his rivals, below are his speed comparisons per fence compared to the winner. The second and third fences providing stark contrast.

Fence 1

Captain Guinness: (-4.96mph) /El Fabiolo: (-5.91mph)

Fence 2

Captain Guinness: (-1.96mph) / El Fabiolo: (-4.34mph)

Fence 3

Captain Guinness: (-3.26mph) / El Fabiolo: (-5.86mph)

Fence 4

Captain Guinness: (-4.08mph) / El Fabiolo: (-4.22mph)

The data clearly indicates that Willie Mullins was right to assert that he was not happy with El Fabiolo’s jumping before he was pulled up.

Those who felt Paul Townend should not have pulled him up and should have persevered will want to revise that assertion in the light of the fact that, at the fifth fence, El Fabiolo lost a total of 6.42 lenghs and lost 12.92mph, costing him all chance that he might have had.

Brown Advisory Novices’ Chase: Fact To File

FACT To File has only run four times over fences and has now won two Grade 1s, his abundant potential causing him to be as short as 4/1 for next year’s Cheltenham Gold Cup. The analytics suggest that there is still room for improvement which augurs well for his future career.

This was one of the slowest-run races at the meeting. The winner recorded an FSP of 110.92%, meaning his final four furlongs were 10.92% faster than the preceding two and a half miles. The first four home all recorded strong finishes with numbers above 100%, like the winner they were able to save energy for the closing stages.

The slow pace made the final four furlongs key to the outcome and Fact To File recorded a split of 59.15secs compared to Monty’s Star (2nd) 60.40secs. His speed proved decisive, fastest through each of those final four furlongs. He needed that speed because in terms of jumping he could have been better. This is a case where the data can paint a different picture to the visuals.

The Race IQ data highlights that he gained just 1.1 lengths with his jumping compared to the runner-up Monty’s Star who gained 4.89 lengths. For Fact To File to win by almost four lengths despite being a similar amount inferior over his fences to his nearest rival suggests that, with a better round of jumping, he would have won by a good deal further.

In terms of jumping, it was a case of a race of two halves for the winner. He did not make a significant error at any stage, but he lost a small amount of ground at nine of the first 12 fences. His cumulative loss after those jumps was (-0.9 lengths) thereafter he clawed back that deficit, gaining ground at all the last six fences to end up with that positive overall figure of (+1.1 lengths). This provides room for some improvement.

He may not have gained much ground over his fences, but he compensates for thatby being able to quickly recover his speed after landing. He was particularly impressive in recovering full speed over the second last in just 1.1 seconds.

I mentioned the amount of speed El Fabiolo lost at the fences he jumped. To add more context, Fact To File averaged a loss of (-3.45mph) over 19 fences. El Fabiolo only jumped five fences, his average speed loss was (-6.65mph).

Boodles Cheltenham Gold Cup:

Galopin Des Champs

BACK-to-back Gold Cups for this brilliant racehorse. This Gold Cup was run at an even gallop given the conditions. Galopin Des Champs recorded an FSP of 103.36% staying on strongly having taken up the running with three furlongs to go.

They got racing fully six furlongs out which meant that all finishers were sapped of energy in the final furlong, Galopin Des Champs completed that furlong in 18.01secs with Gerri Colombe recording 18.16secs. By contrast last season - on ground described as soft - he was able to run a final furlong of 16.28secs in a race run at a similar tempo. The difference this year due to the more tiring conditions.

His final four furlongs of 62.51secs was 0.65secs quicker than Gerri Colombe in second who put up a career-best despite his jumping.

He would have got much closer to Galopin Des Champs if he had jumped better. The winner was 8.38 lengths better over his fences than Gerri Colombe. Their lengths gained/lost are detailed below.

Galopin Des Champs: +1.7 lengths

Gerri Colombe: -6.68 lengths

It is worth noting that Gerri Colombe lost ground at 19 of the 22 fences.

The best jumping performance in the race came from Corach Rambler who gained 7.35 lengths with his jumping.

His verve and enthusiasm for jumping augurs well for a repeat win in the Grand National.

Galopin Des Champs will return in a bid to emulate Best Mate and land three Gold Cups. Such is his talent it is entirely possible that he will emulate that horse, but Gerri Colombe has the potential to make life very tricky if he can jump better.

Ryanair Mares’ Novices’ Hurdle: Golden Ace

THIS was a steadily-run contest that turned into a sprint. The FSP (114.16%) recorded by the winner was the fastest at the meeting and she must be credited with a smart turn of foot.

Golden Ace was clearly suited by the test of speed which saw her and Brighterdaysahead run two sub-13 second furlongs when the sprint began three furlongs from home. It was Golden Ace who was able to sustain her speed for longer, her final furlong sealing the deal. Their sectionals for the final three furlongs are detailed below.

Golden Ace: 12.93secs, 12.90s, 14.76s

Brighterdaysahead: 12.98s 12.95s 15.20s

In terms of jumping Golden Ace was 0.68 lengths better than the runner-up, but it was her speed rather than her jumping that won the day.

This is a race where Brighterdaysahead can be marked up. She gave 5lb to the winner and was was too keen because of the steady gallop. She still quickened with the winner three furlongs out, but her early exertions probably told late in the race. She will make amends maybe over further.

That said it would be wrong to underestimate the winner whose speed is a potent weapon. To write this performance off on the grounds of the race not suiting the runner-up would be deny credit to the winner who could be seen to really good effect at Aintree where that sharp track is sure to suit.