IT has been well documented that there is no stand-out performer in the sprint division this season.
That point was reinforced last Saturday at Haydock in the Betfair Sprint Cup won by Montassib. There have been four Group 1 sprints this year and all have been won by different horses in what is a tight knit division in terms of ability.
That is not to say that those winners lack in talent and Montassib is a smart sprinter and the data he produced backs up that assertion.
Analysis of the Betfair Sprint Cup must start with the draw which played an important part in the outcome.
It was best to be drawn low thereby racing down the middle of the track. Horses drawn high who raced towards the stands’ side seemed to be inconvenienced. Evidence of this was seen in the Be Friendly Handicap earlier on the card.
That race was over five furlongs and was won by Shagraan who jumped from stall 4 and was the horse that raced closest to the far side. The runner-up Jer Batt raced from stall 6 and raced on the far side as well.
It was a similar picture in the Betfair Sprint Cup. The result and the draw are detailed below showing that in the 16-strong field being drawn in stalls 1-8 was important.
1st Montassib: Stall 2
2nd Kind Of Blue: Stall 5
3rd Unequal Love: Stall 6
4th Vadream: Stall 4.
This was a strongly run sprint with Montassib and Kind Of Blue benefitting from being ridden patiently, albeit of the better side of the track.
By design, both were slowly into stride as detailed by the RaceiQ break speed data which details how quickly the runners reach 20mph from the stalls.
1st Montassib: 0-20mph 2.71secs (9th fastest)
2nd Kind Of Blue: 0-20mph 2.72secs (10th fastest)
This was an advantage in a strongly run race, the fastest part of which was the first half. Every single runner recorded their top speed in the second furlong as the field was taken along by Bucanero Fuerte from stall three.
He dictated rapid early fractions recording 11.63secs, 10.63secs and 10.99secs for the first three furlongs which are all rated as fast as against the RaceiQ Par sectionals.
This strong pace, and with many of the fancied horses on the wrong side of the track, Montassib was able to win by running evenly through the final two furlongs as those that chased the pace or raced on the stands’ side weakened out of the picture.
His final three furlongs rated against the RaceiQ Par are detailed below.
Montassib - Final three furlongs
F4: 10.75secs (Par)
F5: 11.35secs (Par)
F6: 12.25secs (Par)
Montassib did not quicken from the back, rather he kept going better than his rivals as they all fell away around him. If he had changed gear, he would likely have recorded a higher Finishing Speed Percentage (FSP) than 99.30%.
Montassib appeared to idle inside the final furlong, flicking his ears as he hit the front, and he seemingly only does what is required.
More will surely be needed if he is to win the Champion Sprint on Qipco Champions day, but he will likely have the soft conditions that suit him and his hold up style is suited to the straight course at Ascot, but he is unlikely to get the perfect set up as he got at Haydock.
WILL the real Auguste Rodin stand up in the Royal Bahrain Irish Champion Stakes today?
Two scenarios are required for him to give of his best. The first is the ground, all his wins since his two-year-old days have come on ground described as Good to Firm or Firm, the quicker the better for him.
Secondly, he needs a strong gallop at this trip. Last year in this race the pace was strong with stable companions Luxembourg and Point Lonsdale setting strong fractions. Auguste Rodin was rated evenly in behind the speed and was able to win without producing a fast finish as evidenced by his FSP of 100.60%.
It was a similar story when he won the Prince of Wales’s Stakes at Royal Ascot. On quick ground, he tracked a strong pace and finished evenly producing an FSP of 100.56%. Similar tactics did not work in the King George VI and Queen Elizabeth Qipco Stakes last time out where over 12 furlongs (and softer going), racing close to a very strong pace stretched his stamina.
He will have no excuses at Leopardstown if he gets fast ground. A fast pace is guaranteed but whether he can see off the potentially top-class Economics is a question that is harder to answer.
Kyprios has fight on his hooves?
Kyprios will attempt to win the Irish St Leger for the second time tomorrow, but he will not have things all his own way with the progressive Giavellotto in the field. Both are stayers who have a turn of foot.
In the Goodwood Cup, Kyprios was faster than all his rivals through the final three furlongs recording the following splits.
F14: 11.27secs
F15:11.55secs
F16: 12.40secs
These splits meant that he was 6.80% faster in the final three furlongs than he was in the previous 13. He reached a top speed of 40.47mph and with such speed he will not be inconvenienced by coming back in trip.
If there is a danger, I believe it will be Giavellotto whose recent win in the Princess of Wales’s Stakes over 12 furlongs at Newmarket was a career best.
Held up in a race that was run at an even gallop, he showed sustained speed to surge to the front before tiring in the final furlong as detailed below.
F8: 11.77secs
F9: 11.38secs
F10: 11.36secs
F11: 11.56secs
F12: 13.58secs
This amounted to him recording an FSP of 104.15% and a top speed of 40.29mph, suggesting that he has a lot of speed for a horse who stays well. He showed similar speed when thrashing the subsequent Lonsdale Cup winner Vauban at York in the second of his Boodles Yorkshire Cup wins,
He may not beat the brilliant Kyprios, but he could give him plenty to think about, particularly if this turned into a test of speed. Giavellotto currently trades at a generally available 3/1 and it could be argued from the RaceiQ data that he has produced this season that he should be a shorter price.