SALVATOR Mundi divided opinion after winning at Punchestown last Sunday. The bookmakers were sufficiently impressed and shortened him up to 3/1 for the Supreme Novices’ Hurdle, but many expressed their doubts about the performance citing his pre-race demeanour, keen-going nature and modest jumping as being reasons to oppose him at Cheltenham.

Everyone is entitled to their opinion and racing, like no other sport, garners strong opposing views. Whilst informed opinion is interesting, it is the data that can tell us exactly what Salvator Mundi achieved and whether the bookmakers were justified in shortening him up for the Supreme.

It is possible to be impressed by a performance where a horse does a lot wrong but still triumphs through adversity. Not a lot went his way from the start, with a steady gallop causing him to be very keen.

Slow start

The leader Sky Lord took the field through a pedestrian first mile and five furlongs in the Moscow Flyer at Punchestown last Sunday, before the race turned into a four-furlong dash for home. When the pace lifted, Salvator Mundi was poorly placed in fourth and, given how hard he had pulled, he could be forgiven for not having the necessary reserves for a fast finish, but the opposite was true. He finished the race very strongly to record a Finishing Speed Percentage (FSP) of 112.58%. In so doing, he ran down Kel Histoire (second) and Relieved Of Duties (third), who were better placed than him and were not stopping, as evidenced by their FSPs of 110.54% and 110.76% respectively.

Salvator Mundi was the fastest horse through each of the final three furlongs, with him being the only horse in the race to dip under 15.00s in the final furlong. His final four-furlong dominance is highlighted by his splits, compared to his nearest pursuers.

1st Salvator Mundi: 56.15s

2nd Kel Histoire: 57.32s

3rd Relieved Of Duties: 57.20s

This was a classic example of speed being much more relevant than position in a slowly-run race. Salvator Mundi achieved a top speed of 34.20mph, which was the highest achieved on the card and, when he finished fifth in the Triumph Hurdle behind stable companion Majborough, he was the only horse in the race to run a sub-13.00s furlong, when he clocked 12.93s through the 13th furlong.

The data is clear that he is a very fast horse and, were he to settle better in a strongly run race, that speed could be devastating. If you are taking 3/1 about him winning the Supreme, you are to a large degree backing him to settle in the early part of the race, if he does, he is more of a 7/4 shot.

You will also be hoping he jumps better at Cheltenham than he did here. He lost 1.43 lengths on the field with his jumping, recording a below average Race IQ Jump Index of 6.7. This can be partly explained by the pace of the race. Paul Townend was trying to get him to settle, and he did not want him to fly over his hurdles and then pick up the bridle even more strongly and waste more energy.

Speedy

He can jump better than he did here. At Tipperary, he recorded a Jump Index score of 7.3 and he achieved a 7.2 in the Triumph at Cheltenham last year. It would be fair to say there is room for improvement in his jumping, but at the first and the third hurdles here, he showed what he can do at a hurdle with two fast efficient leaps, which gave him efficiency ratings at those hurdles of 8.1 and 7.7.

Both Kel Histoire (7.7) and Relieved Of Duties (8.8) jumped better than the winner and were better placed when the sprint began, but still couldn’t beat Salvator Mundi, suggesting that he was a lot better than the bare result.

It remains to be seen if he can pull it all together at Cheltenham. He has the speed to win a Supreme, and there is potential in his jumping for much better, 3/1 says he puts it all together on the big day. One thing is for sure, to write his chances in the Supreme off because this was not a performance that really pleased the eye, would be to deny the data and could be a big mistake.

GAVIN Cromwell has his horses in fine form, and he introduced the useful Sixandahalf to hurdling at Fairyhouse last Saturday and she won well and now trades as the 6/1 second favourite for the Mares’ Novice hurdle at Cheltenham.

Sixandahalf won this maiden by 12 lengths bringing her flat form to the National Hunt sphere. This race was run at a steady pace for the first mile, thereafter the next 10 furlongs were run evenly, with the winner proving to be too fast for her rivals completing the final four furlongs in 57.51s, which was 2.80s faster than the runner-up Qualimita.

This finish gave her an FSP of 105.01%, which was 4% quicker than her closest pursuers. She looked like she could have pulled out more if asked and is a smart prospect who, given she stayed two miles on the flat, will have no trouble with two and a half over hurdles. She produced some good time figures on the flat, when winning at Newmarket and then being placed in the Irish Cesarewitch at the Curragh.

Solid form

Those numbers suggest that she is capable of being competitive on the flat off a mark of 100 and it is not often that horses with such flat prowess get to go hurdling, let alone take to it as well as she did. Qualimita in second place had the experience of a couple of runs over hurdles and the third Kimi De Mai won three bumpers in a row in France, so the form of this race looks very solid.

There is room for improvement in her jumping. She recorded a race level jump index score of 6.7, which is below the average of 7.0, but it was her first competitive round of jumping and she will surely improve in this sphere.

Her best jump came at the fifth, with an individual score of 8.1, so there is a good chance that she will be able to put together a more efficient overall score in the future. She is a smart prospect, who will surely benefit from more experience before Cheltenham.