THE Derby picture is no clearer even after the clear-cut success of Economics in the Al Basti Equiworld Dubai Dante Stakes at York. His participation in the Derby is still being debated by connections who will have to make their mind up next Monday. Godolphin’s Arabian Crown will miss the race and who knows whether City Of Troy will bounce back to his brilliant best.
The participation of Economics would certainly add some much-needed lustre to the race, but the data provides connections with a conundrum.
This was the best Derby trial we have seen won by a horse of immense potential. He took the race apart to win by six lengths in a time of 2m 09.30secs which was half a second quicker than Bluestocking over the same trip in the Middleton Stakes on the same day.
The race was strongly run with Economics held up but keen in rear. He was slowly away taking 2.71secs to reach 20mph as opposed to Cambridge who was fastest taking just 2.49secs to achieve that speed. This was probably by desire as Tom Marquand was clearly keen to get Economics settled.
The strong/even pace resulted in the winner recording a Finishing Speed Percentage (FSP) of 100.01% throughout the race which is suggestive of him maintaining an even gallop rather than putting his rivals away with a sharp turn of foot.
Indeed, the data suggests that all his rivals slowed down through the final three furlongs, all of them recording an FSP below 100% as he swept past them. His ability to maintain a strong pace in the final three furlongs the decisive factor. The final three-furlong splits for the first three along with their FSPs are below.
1. Economics: 37.46secs/100.01%
2. Ancient Wisdom: 38.53secs/97.99%
3. War Rooms: 38.51secs/98.1%
As his rivals wilted, he kept going best under a well-timed challenge from Tom Marquand who seemed eager not to commit him too soon, and when he did with three furlongs to run, he was able to quicken well enough to get to the front.
Through that furlong he recorded 11.97secs, the only horse in the race to dip under 12.00secs for any of the final three furlongs. This wasn’t a sharp turn of foot, but in a strongly run race was enough to take him to the front.
He then followed that up with a 12.33secs penultimate furlong which was 0.46secs (lengths) faster than Ancient Wisdom who finished second.
The conundrum for connections lies in the fact that the data suggests Economics can perform to a high level in a strongly run 10-furlong contest. He can maintain a strong gallop at the trip suggestive that he may be able to stay further.
However, he is quite a keen going sort who wears a cross noseband, and if he were keen in the early part of the Derby which is uphill, he may use up too much petrol in the early part of the race.
This may in part explain why William Haggas has expressed concerns about his suitability for the track.
The other issue is that he was reported by the vet to have bled in the race. Such physical infirmity can often mean that a horse needs time between races to allow his lungs to heal and to recover from the trauma of bleeding. With the Derby a week or so away, this will be a major consideration for connections.
On balance, I think he is a strong travelling 10-furlong horse who if trying 12 furlongs may be better suited to waiting for the Irish Derby for which he has received automatic entry after his win at York.
THE Al Shaqab Lockinge Stakes produced a shock result with Audience making all. Although perhaps on review of the analytics we should not be too shocked.
Audience was stepping up in trip to a mile for the first time and made use of his raw speed to see off Charyn by a length and three quarters. This race was won through the first four furlongs with Audience making all and getting his rivals out of their comfort zones early in the race.
Audience was fastest into stride taking just 2.63secs to reach 20mph. This can be compared to his better fancied stable companion Inspiral who recorded 3.70secs. Inspiral is always held up but given how this race panned out she was always on the back foot after this slow start.
Thereafter, Audience ploughed a lone furrow towards the far side of the track, and according to the data, seemed to go as fast as he could for as long as he could.
He blew the race apart in the third and fourth furlongs recording splits of 11.04secs and 11.05secs respectively. Thereafter, he slowed down through each of the next four furlongs but the advantage he had established was insurmountable.
That he finished slowly is detailed in his FSP which was recorded as being 95.85%, meaning he was 4.15% slower in the final two furlongs than he had been in the previous six.
The FSPs of the first four are detailed below to highlight the slow-motion finish that occurred.
1. Audience: 95.85%
2. Charyn: 97.12%
3. Witch Hunter: 96.06%
4. Inspiral: 93.50%
It is reasonable to ask why he was not susceptible out in front given the strong gallop? The answer is multi-faceted.
He was fast into stride and gained a length or two through the first half mile, which was crucial. His rivals had to run hard in pursuit and that meant they had nothing left for a strong finish. Only Charyn was able to reduce the deficit in the final two furlongs as detailed below.
Final two furlong splits:
1. Audience: 24.86secs
2. Charyn: 24.60secs
3. Witch Hunter: 25.16secs
4. Inspiral: 26.05secs
Big Rock did not finish the race well either, recording 26.42secs in sixth. Outside of the data, excuses can be made for Inspiral who may have needed the run and was switched away from the winner towards the stands’ side rail.
Big Rock was unable to lead and was racing away from his favoured soft ground. He may be more of an autumn horse.
One final point is worth considering. The Race iQ time index scores for all the races at Newbury revealed that most races achieved a lot more than would have been expected for races of the class that were run on the day on the prevalent ground at Newbury.
This may well be a function of the class of horse on show on what was an exceptional card, but it could also indicate that the ground was quick, suiting the speed of Audience who allowed an easy lead, didn’t slow down enough for any other horse to catch him.