WHILE there was nothing groundbreaking revealed from the entries this week, the base for an antepost bet for Cheltenham seems more solid with the advent of entries, and there were little bits of information here and there if you delve down deep enough.
Some of the information is mentioned above but not noted are the interesting sole entries from Willie Mullins. Hunters Yarn and Uncle Phil, who both made an impression when winning at Fairyhouse on Saturday, have the Arkle as their only entry. The latter is a likely Grand Annual candidate, but the former has lots of potential at two miles, especially if he gets his jumping together. Despite whacking the second last at Fairyhouse, he took care of business in facile fashion. Keep an eye out for him between now and the Festival.
For all that, the Arkle, and the also the Turners, look unappealing betting heats right now. It’s hard to get away from Marine Nationale and Gaelic Warrior respectively, unless the latter drops down in trip to make it an Irish Arkle, and potentially the ‘actual’ Arkle, for the ages, a move that has been lightly mooted by the Closutton camp. In contrast, the Brown Advisory and the National Hunt Chase are encouragingly open races and it seems like there is an opportunity there still.
Grangeclare West was impressive in the Neville Hotels Novices Chase last season but he fell out of form badly last season, and that’s at the back of my mind. There was so much to like about Fact To File’s beginners’ chase win, but it was style rather than substance, with his rivals probably not up to standard.
Monty’s Star arguably did more when winning at Punchestown, comfortably taking care of the odds-on Three Card Brag with an excellent jumping performance in heavy ground. He reminds me a lot of his half-brother Monalee, lightly raced for both of his novice seasons over hurdles and fences, but able to produce top class form - he was second to Penhill in the Albert Bartlett and second to Presenting Percy in the Brown Advisory.
Monty’s Star, who represents the same owner Barry Maloney and trainer Henry de Bromhead, bombed in last season’s Albert Bartlett, which is usually a red flag, but that three-mile contest is littered with also-rans who went on to become top class. That run is probably held too much against him, which is why he is still available to back at 14/1 generally. He is more potential than achievement so far, but the price allows for that, which isn’t the case with Fact To File.
As mentioned above, Willie Mullins has a strong hold in the National Hunt Chase also, but will need to get both Embassy Gardens and Nick Rockett qualified. Both of those could conceivably run in the Brown Advisory, which makes them unappealing betting prospects for now.
Given his record in the race, it’s a little bit surprising that you have to go as far down as sixth and seventh in the market to find the first Gordon Elliott-trained horses, Salvador Ziggy and Three Card Brag.
I’m a big fan of the latter, and have backed him for this contest at bigger prices than he is available now (generally 10/1) so the former is the one to concentrate on. He hasn’t run since finishing an excellent second to Desertmore House in the Kerry National but his inclusion in the entries for this race is a key piece of information because now we know he is on track.
He has a lovely profile for the three-mile-six-furlong contest, a typical Elliott-trained profile for this race - gathered experience on decent ground very early in the season and then put away for the winter. He also has good form at Cheltenham, having finished second in the Pertemps Final and significantly, Elliott should be able to get one of the top amatuers to ride him.