TALK about starting as you mean to go on. There’s no getting away from the fact the Betfair Chase – Britain’s opening Grade 1 of the National Hunt season each year – carries with it an excellent roll of honour.
No, it’s not as glamorous as its closest neighbour in the British Grade 1 staying chase calendar, the King George VI Chase at Kempton, but Haydock’s premier staying prize regularly welcomes top-class performers. From Kauto Star to Imperial Commander, Silviniaco Conti to Cue Card, Bristol De Mai to A Plus Tard, the race has showcased a proper winner many times in its 20-year history.
What the Betfair Chase also has a habit of doing is producing specialist, multiple winners. For 14 of those 20 renewals, just five different horses made the roll of honour: Kauto Star (four wins), Cue Card (three wins), Bristol De Mai (three wins), Silviniaco Conti (two wins) and Royale Pagaille (two wins). Repeat business is frequently the name of the game on Merseyside.
In short, the Betfair typically demands a high-class sort, who is prepared enough for a significant stamina test early in the season (possibly on their seasonal reappearance) over an extended three miles and a furlong – and on what is often demanding ground.
The point of flagging all of this is to highlight that the combination listed above is certainly not for every chaser come November. It’s an acquired taste, and also one that can arguably linger in the mouth of runners who have tackled it heading into their next start.
A field of seven went to post for this year’s Betfair, won for the second year in succession by Royale Pagaille. He has yet to run since, ruled out of his Christmas option at Kempton due to a hold-up, but four others from the 2024 field have and there haven’t exactly been fireworks.
Timeform’s analysis of the race (run on heavy ground, as per their going assessments) noted that runner-up Grey Dawning – while emerging from his run with credit – “endured a gruelling reappearance”. He was pulled up on his next start in the King George.
Kempton blowout
Bravemansgame, a further 10 lengths back in third at Haydock, beat only one home in the King George next time, while J.P. McManus’ pair of Betfair Chase representatives, Limerick Lace and Capodanno, both disappointed on Merseyside and in their next appearances on New Year’s Day.
Limerick Lace never threatened to land a blow, beaten 25 lengths, by Allegorie De Vassy at Fairyhouse, and Capodanno could only get within 26 lengths of Embassy Gardens at Tramore.
One year and just four runners isn’t a sufficient sample size to make any firm conclusions about a possible Betfair Chase hangover, however.
What about the last decade of Betfair Chases? Comparing the next-time-out results of starters from the Grade 1 when it is run on better than soft ground, versus when it is run on soft or heavy, tells a tale.
It’s worth mentioning that the distance of the race also changed to its current extended three miles and one furlong in 2017, having operated at three miles prior to that (the race actually started out over two miles six furlongs and 204 yards back in 2005).
Three of the last 10 runnings of Britain’s top-level curtain-raiser have taken place on ground officially described as good to soft or good.
Surface comparison
The record of the horses who ran in these renewals next time out reads: three wins from 15 runners. In fact, nine of the 15 finished in the first three on their following start. These included the first three home in a King George, the winners of the Peter Marsh and Silviniaco Conti Chase and a Savills Chase second (beaten a short-head).
As for the results of horses appearing on their first start after running in a soft or heavy ground Betfair Chase, it has proved much tougher work in the immediate future.
According to the Proform database, there has been only one horse win next time out in the last decade from 37 runners who contested a testing-ground Betfair Chase. in the last decade A strike rate of 20% for those after running in the same race on good to soft or good ground drops to 2.7% in more demanding conditions (P&L to a €1 stake also drops to a loss of -€31.50 versus a profit of €3.75).
Using SPs, and treating, for example, an even-money shot as 0.5 expected winners, you would have expected 5 winners to emerge after the soft or heavy Betfairs next-time-out, but there was just one. That solitary successful horse was Cue Card, who followed up an easy Haydock win by holding off Vautour in a thrilling King George. The Tizzards’ star was in his absolute pomp during that season.
Nearly a quarter (eight of 37) of those coming from Betfairs on heavy ground were actually pulled up next time, while others - even excluding Bravemansgame, Limerick Lace and Capodanno this season - were beaten 105 lengths, 85 lengths, 53 lengths, 47 lengths, 47 lengths, 26 lengths, 22 lengths and 22 lengths after.
History speaks
None of this is to say that horses can’t successfully move on from a stamina-sapping run in rain-softened ground at Haydock to then win next time. As Cue Card proved, with the right horse, it can be done. Likewise, as touched on above with the course specialist angle, Royale Pagaille could well be one to excel again when appearing in the Peter Marsh on Saturday week given his Merseyside love affair.
But the wider picture appears to point to this early-season skirmish as being a big ask for horses to bounce back from immediately - when the Betfair is run in demanding conditions.
It was noticeable that this year was the first time Willie Mullins ever had a runner in the race (Capodanno, pulled up). He instead started his biggest staying guns, Galopin Des Champs and Fact To File, over the much shorter extended two miles and three furlongs at Punchestown in the John Durkan Memorial Punchestown Chase on the same weekend as the Betfair.
Starting as you mean to go on can be a good idea, as long as that doesn’t come at a price to the rest of your season. Any inkling of concern that may have rumbled after defeat for Galopin Des Champs on his comeback – for the second straight year – in the John Durkan seems a distant memory now.