AN unusual four-timer was very nearly achieved on Down Royal’s BoyleSports Ulster Derby day last Saturday.
Of the seven races run at the northern venue, three were won by horses wearing first-time cheekpieces, with just a nose denying another horse sporting the same equipment for the first time on the card - the unlucky, fast-finishing Grecian Slipper in the BoyleSports Irish EBF Ulster Oaks.
Applying headgear can spark improvement in some horses and send others the opposite direction, making it important that trainers have an awareness of when is the right time to pull the trigger on fitting new equipment.
Blindly backing runners with a new version of headgear applied for the first time would have you in the poor house quickly. Since the beginning of 2018 in Ireland, just 6.4% of all horses wearing new headgear have won.
However, certain trainers have been able to perform well above that winning percentage with their runners in a change of equipment.
Each horse’s credentials must be treated on their own merits in terms of their suitability for different variations of headgear - fitting an already keen type with blinkers, for example, comes with the potential for them to pull away their chance - but it can pay to be aware of trainers’ records in this department.
Detailed below are five trainers worthy of a particularly positive mention when trying either a new type of headgear, a new combination of multiple pieces of equipment or fitting headgear for the first time altogether.
1. Emmet Mullins
The Grand National-winning, outside-the-box thinker was among the trainers to score at Down Royal on Saturday with a runner in first-time cheekpieces.
In total since 2018 in Ireland, he has struck with nine of his 55 runners in a new variation of headgear. including a trio of winners at the Galway Festival in cheekpieces, a hood and a tongue-tie.
Of all trainers in Ireland with at least 20 runners in new headgear during that period, he sits second in the standings for the highest percentage of rivals beaten - an impressive 62% when fresh equipment is fitted.
Across all his domestic runners - with or without headgear - Mullins boasts a 36% strike rate in terms of winning or placed representatives, but that improves to 42% in new headgear - the third-best record among trainers with at least 20 runners wearing a new combination in the last five years.
It isn’t simply a one-size-fits-all approach in terms of the type of that his horses wear either.
Mullins has the second highest strike rate of all Irish trainers with at least 10 runners in a first-time hood, and the fourth best for first-time cheekpieces. This is clearly an area he has a strong handle on.
2. Charles Byrnes
The multiple Cheltenham Festival-winning trainer is top of the charts when it comes to winning and placed runners in any type of new headgear at 44%. Overall since 2018, Byrnes has registered six winners from just 39 domestic runners when such equipment changes.
His percentage of rivals beaten in these instances is also a standout 65% among all Irish trainers with at least 20 runners in new headgear during this period.
When looking at the overall stats, the visor is used relatively infrequently by most trainers. For example, Willie Mullins, Henry de Bromhead, Aidan and Joseph O’Brien do not appear to have reached for a visor in at least the last five years on home soil.
Interestingly, though, Byrnes has notched three winners and three placings from just eight runners in a first-time visor over the last five years - a winning record of 38%. He uses the visor sparingly but effectively.
3. Mark Fahey
Irish racing aficionado Tony Keenan flagged up in these pages a fortnight ago that the Monasterevin-based trainer is profitable to follow when his runners are sent off 5/1 or less and he is also worth paying close attention to when reaching for fresh headgear.
Of all Irish trainers with at least 20 runners in a new variation of equipment since 2018, Fahey boasts the second best strike rate - seven winners from just 38 runners. That smart return is also four winners more than the market would have expected.
Trying cheekpieces has been particularly effective for him too, saddling four winners from 19 runners (21% strike rate), while his overall win and place strike rate of 37% in fresh headgear ranks highly in the overall trainer standings.
These are pretty smart results for a trainer who had just 18 individual horses represent him over jumps last season.
4. Peter Fahey
Part of the trainer’s fantastic four-timer at last year’s Galway Festival featured a smart success for Soaring Monarch, who was fitted with headgear for the first time in his career when landing a competitive handicap.
That positive result was not a one off for the Cheltenham Festival-winning trainer when fitting fresh equipment, but the market has still been understimating his runners in this category. He boasts the highest number of winners above market expectations among Irish trainers with at least 20 runners in new headgear over the last five years.
Fahey is two from three with his domestic runners in a first-time visor since 2018, five from 29 with blinkers newly added and two from nine when applying a tongue-tie for the first occasion.
5. Terence O’Brien
Despite having fewer runners trying new headgear than the trainers mentioned above, the Carrigtwohill handler’s record is worth flagging up from a small sample size.
O’Brien, since 2018, has operated at a 6.5% strike rate in Ireland when running horses without headgear. That percentage jumps to almost 17% when his runners sport new equipment - four winners from 24 runners in fresh headgear.
His win and place strike rate also increases from 23.5% to 37.5% - the fifth best record in this category when eliminating trainers who have had less than 20 runners in new headgear over the last five years.
Powerhouse stables
What about the big guns? Willie Mullins’ strike rate of 18% with horses running in new headgear ranks highly among all trainers but that is below his 27% record when saddling runners without any headgear in Ireland since 2018.
Compared to his overall number of runners in the last number of years, he tries a headgear change just 6% of the time - that is fewer than Joseph O’Brien (10%), Jessica Harrington (9.5%), Henry de Bromhead (8.5%), Aidan O’Brien (8%) and Gordon Elliott (7%).
When breaking down these trainers’ results with specific types of headgear, Elliott is the only one to register his best strike rate with a first-time hood - 24% on home soil since 2018, with nine winners from 38 runners.
Beyond the giants
Overall, there are several names and nuggets of information that could be thrown into the mix under different categories of new headgear.
For example Jarlath Fahey (15%) and Edward O’Grady (13%) see their overall strike rates roughly double when fitting their runners with new headgear, Ted Walsh’s runners beat an average of 62% of their rivals when having the same applied for the first time (third-best record among trainers with at least 20 runners in new headgear) and Donnacha O’Brien has the second best strike rate of winning and placed runners among the same group of trainers (42%).
Ken Condon (25%) and Liz Doyle (21%) have been performing well with limited numbers in first-time blinkers over the past five years, Robert Tyner (30%) and Enda Bolger (27%) are prominent in the standings with runners in first-time cheekpieces, while Willie McCreery has more winners than any other trainer in first-time visors since 2018.
He also performs to a decent level with his runners in a first-time hood. As for tongue-ties, Paddy Twomey leads the way with a 25% strike rate first time.
IN this column prior to Royal Ascot, an analysis of the tracks where two-year-olds most commonly run before winning at the Royal Meeting highlighted the strength of Irish tracks with a view to producing top juvenile winners on one of world racing’s biggest stages.
The Curragh still tops the table on 15 Royal Ascot winners in the last 11 years, with Porta Fortuna and Valiant Force appearing there on route to Berkshire success. However, it was also an excellent week for Naas.
Of the six juvenile races at the Royal Meeting, two of the winners, River Tiber (previously a Navan maiden winner) and Porta Fortuna, won at Naas’ Royal Ascot Trials Day meeting in May, Windsor Castle Stakes runner-up Johannes Brahms had struck at the same venue in May, and Chesham Stakes heroine Snellen (previously a Limerick maiden winner) also won a Naas barrier trial late in the month.
Such healthy returns are surely no harm to Naas’ ambitions to eventually host a Group 1 on the flat. Perhaps a Group 1 for two-year-olds would be fitting.