FORGET New Year’s resolutions, how about New Year’s predictions?
Lossiemouth will probably win the Champion Hurdle, Ballyburn will be tough to beat wherever he lines up this spring and Kyprios can reign supreme again in the staying division on the flat, but here are a few less obvious candidates in various categories to watch out for in 2025.
horse to follow
There was a real wow factor about the performance that Kopek Des Bordesproduced when annihilating his rivals in the €100,000 Tattersalls Ireland George Mernagh Memorial Sales Bumper last Easter Sunday at Fairyhouse, and he could take high rank among the novice hurdlers of 2025.
That valuable contest typically features useful sorts, won by none other than Brighterdaysahead a year earlier (and a subsequent Champion Bumper winner in Moon Racer in 2014), but the 2024 renewal was one-way traffic from some way out.
This four-year-old by No Risk At All is from a family littered with blacktype - he is a half-brother to Grade 1 winner Utopie Des Bordes - and Willie Mullins spoke highly of him after his 13-length rout in the colours of Monabeg Investments Limited.
The €130,000 store was handed entries in Leopardstown maiden hurdles over the festive period and it will be fascinating to see if he turns out. A 20/1 shot for the Turners Novices’ Hurdle and 25/1 for the Supreme, there would be no major surprise if he turns out to be capable of mixing it at Grade 1 level.
National Hunt horse
The County Hurdle has been a particularly sweet spot for Willie Mullins, winning the Cheltenham Festival handicap a record seven times through Thousand Stars (2010), Final Approach (2011), Wicklow Brave (2015), Arctic Fire (2017), Saint Roi (2020), State Man (2022) and Absurde (2024).
Several of those names were also effective flat campaigners, including his most recent winner. Absurde struck as an unexposed type in this sphere, after running to a useful level on the flat.
Ethical Diamond carries the same H O S Syndicate colours for the same stable and might end up being one for a Cheltenham handicap like that next spring, having learned his trade over flights without winning last season and then finished a cracking fourth behind Crystal Black at Royal Ascot. The Awtaad four-year-old proved far too keen for his own good on that occasion.
Horses now need five runs over hurdles in order to run in handicap hurdles at the Cheltenham Festival, and that means there shouldn’t be the previous number of unexposed novices getting to line up in those races. With three hurdles runs under his belt, Ethical Diamond might fall into that nice space of being able to qualify over the coming months, as one of the least-exposed candidates - obviously depending on how he shapes.
Rated 132 over hurdles in Ireland, he has plenty of class and 20/1 could look a big price about him for the County Hurdle, if he does indeed end up down that path. If not, he has the talent to win a decent handicap somewhere else along the way.
Given he’s been shaping as though he still has a fair bit to learn about the game, Serengeti could be interesting if tried in a handicap next year off his introductory mark of 93.
This Aidan O’Brien-trained two-year-old - an €800,000 yearling purchase by Wootton Bassett - was a really eyecatching sixth on debut at the Curragh, in a maiden won by the stable’s Expanded, who finished a close second in the Group 1 Dewhurst Stakes on his next start.
He was then sent off favourite for a Leopardstown maiden in October and finished third to Twain, another stablemate who went on to land the Group 1 Criterium International on his next start at Saint-Cloud just eight days later.
As he was entitled to, Serengeti then opened his account at Dundalk, without being wildly impressive from the widest draw of all, though he still beat a rival that was only a neck away from Expanded at the Curragh.
Winning rider Declan McDonogh described Serengeti as “a work in progress with loads more improvement to come” and “an exciting horse who will hopefully make into a stakes horse”. Perhaps he will start out on the Guineas trial path, as opposed to trying a handicap, but we have seen Ballydoyle take a crack at the Madrid Handicap early in the season. If he ended up in that type of contest off 93, he could look very appealing.
in waiting
Back-end juvenile maidens can be a rich source of future winners, especially at premier tracks like Leopardstown, and Candleford Green showed more than enough on her October debut to suggest she can make the breakthrough before going on to better things.
A home-bred two-year-old filly for Barnane Stud, the Willie Mullins-trained daughter of Sea The Stars has a smashing pedigree as a half-sister to Royal Ascot winners Candleford and Atty Persse, as well as being a full-sister to US blacktype performer Maman Joon (peak Racing Post Rating of 112).
She was effectively last of the 13-runner field approaching the straight and went into the notebook when motoring home to only fail by a short-head in second. According to RaceiQ data, she was nearly five and a half lengths quicker than the winner through the final two furlongs.
If she progresses the right way from this introduction, she ought to make her mark at a decent level in 2025.
on the rise
The experience Tiernan Power Rochehas built up from riding in point-to-points and as an amateur on the track for several years appears to be really paying off this season, as he’s standing out as one of the best value claimers around with his current 7lb.
Philip Rothwell has been enjoying a terrific time of it and has provided seven of Power Roche’s nine winners since the beginning of November. The link-up is apparently serving both parties well.
It’s more than six years since the native of Tomhaggard, Co Wexford rode his first track winner and coming the path he has - only switching to conditional status this year - is clearly serving him well.
He had already captured the La Touche over the banks at Punchestown in 2022 on Ballyboker Bridge and spent a fruitful window riding in British point-to-points during the 2021 Covid interruption to Irish pointing. Power Roche enters the New Year with momentum on his side, albeit he is sidelined with suspension for the opening January fixtures.
Talking up teenage riders at an early stage of their career is something I typically try to avoid, given the rollercoaster nature of a jockey’s life and how challenging it can be for riders, as their claims begin to shrink. It is a long and hard road to success.
That said, Darragh O’Sullivanlooked a 16-year-old of some potential last season on the flat and could be set for a strong 2025 with his 7lb claim, if continuing along the same trajectory.
Learning his trade in an excellent place with Fozzy Stack, the Mitchelstown, Co Cork native partnered eight winners from mid-July onwards and plenty of horses seemed to run for him.
Like any apprentice starting out, the former pony racer will have to continue strengthening his skills to climb the ranks, but some of his efforts last season marked him out as a bright prospect for the future.
A trainer’s ability to make strides is so heavily dependent on the quality of the horses at their disposal that it’s difficult to predict a major jump up at any stage.
Several outfits have progressed in 2024, though, and Mark Fahey’s Monasterevin, Co Kildare yard is one that deserves credit for a fine year’s work.
Having sent out seven winners in both 2020 and 2021, nine winners in 2022 and 15 in 2023, Fahey’s haul for the current year stands at 25. While he has had 177 runners this year (up from 120 in 2023), he has managed to post his best strike rate for a calendar year (14%).
Clear Quartz and Flicker Of Hope delivered a Galway Festival double for the yard, the latter also collecting a €100,000 listed handicap hurdle at Navan earlier this month, while Rhythm King popped up in a premier handicap on the last day of the season at the Curragh and Tina’s Indian was highly impressive on debut in a six-furlong maiden at the same venue.
Under both codes, Fahey is proving capable of delivering the goods. His operation is on the up.