WHISPER it quietly, but could the 2024 Irish Champions Festival end up resembling something more like British Champions Festival than a showcase of Ireland’s premier flat performers?

Lest there be any doubt, we’re certainly not at a doomsday stage for Irish flat racing by any means. A Royal Ascot that yielded winners for Aidan O’Brien, Willie Mullins, Donnacha O’Brien, Ger Keane and Joseph O’Brien shows there is very much the firepower on these shores to compete at the highest level internationally. A glance too at the declarations for today’s Betfred St Leger, dominated by a trio of Ballydoyle candidates, suggests another classic will be returning to Rosegreen this weekend.

It has been a struggle to keep the best domestic prizes in Irish hands this season, though.

Of the six Group 1 flat races run in Ireland this year that featured British representation, four have been won by the visitors. This includes the Irish Guineas double for Rosallion (Richard Hannon) and Fallen Angel (Karl Burke), while Ralph Beckett’s high-flying fillies, Bluestocking and You Got To Me plundered the Pretty Polly Stakes and Irish Oaks respectively.

Of the two Group 1s the British failed to win, they supplied the second (Sunway - David Menuisier), third (Ambiente Friendly - James Fanshawe) and fourth (Matsuri - Roger Varian) behind Los Angeles in the Irish Derby from just three overseas runners, and their Phoenix Stakes representative, Shadow Army, was close to being the outsider of the field so much wouldn’t have been expected anyway.

Track record

It’s not just the top-level contests that the neighbours have made some noise in either this year.

Mitbaahy led home a British one-two-four-five-six in the Group 2 Greenlands Stakes on Guineas weekend, the three British runners in the Group 2 Sapphire Stakes, won by Believing, filled the first three places on Irish Oaks day, and Poet Master made his presence felt as the only visiting runner in the Group 2 Minstrel Stakes when bolting up. On the same card, James Tate’s Royal Dress stretched clear to claim the Group 3 Al Shira’aa Racing Meadow Court Stakes.

The shoe tends to be on the other foot when Irish runners travel to Britain for major National Hunt prizes, but tracks like the Curragh have been rich soil for the raiders in 2024.

In fact, 24% of British runners in Irish blacktype races have won this year - quite the strike rate given there can be multiple overseas runners competing against each other here (as was the case with the aforementioned Sapphire and Greenlands Stakes).

A whopping total of 86% of British raiders have collected prize money when coming to Ireland for stakes races in 2024 and more than one in every two runners earned blacktype. A total of 12 winners from 51 runners was three more than the market would have expected, judged on starting prices too.

Weekend challenge

What then are we to expect heading into this weekend?

It’s clearly not ideal that of the seven highest-rated flat horses trained in Ireland, four - City Of Troy, White Birch, Henry Longfellow and Al Riffa - will be absent. Several British trainers have cottoned on to the theme of how major Irish flat races have been unfolding this term, with a total of 15 (making up 13% of today’s fields) heading to Leopardstown on Saturday.

There is an even more extensive visiting squad at the Curragh on Sunday, with 25 runners declared (22% of the fields), and there is quality backing the quantity on both cards.

Of course, Economics is the major talking horse of the weekend in the Royal Bahrain Irish Champion Stakes for William Haggas. He falls into the ‘could be anything’ category and may well be sending the autumn’s marquee Group 1 for export. Ghostwriter (Clive Cox) is no back number either.

Fallen Angel, who has already won two Group 1s on these shores for Karl Burke, is one of the leading players in today’s Group 1 Coolmore America ‘Justify’ Matron Stakes, with George Boughey’s Royal Ascot winner Soprano adding another layer to the challenge.

Leopardstown’s Group 2 Tonybet Solonaway Stakes has been won by British handlers in seven of the last 10 runnings and the presence of Maljoom (William Haggas), Poker Face (Simon and Ed Crisford) and last year’s winner Flight Plan (Karl Burke) ensure a serious threat to keeping the prize overseas once again.

The Haggas-trained Klondike has the unfortunate penalty of being this reporter’s Saturday nap in the Group 3 Tonybet ‘We’re Here To Play’ Stakes (thoughts with connections), while there are four more British runners in the Irish Stallion Farms EBF Sovereign Path Premier Handicap and two in the concluding HKJC World Pool Autumn Fillies & Mares Handicap.

Sprinting stars

That’s just today. Sunday sees a massive British assault on the Group 1 Bar One Racing Flying Five Stakes, spearheaded by Nunthrope Stakes one-two Bradsell (Archie Watson) and Believing (George Boughey). There are a total of 10 British runners in the shortest race of the weekend.

A lively overseas challenge comes in the Irish Stallion Farms EBF Bold Lad Sprint Handicap, while Simmering (Ollie Sangster) and the supplemented Aomori City (Charlie Appleby) are among the leading contenders for the Group 1 Moyglare Stud Stakes and Goffs Vincent O’Brien National Stakes respectively.

There’s also the small matter of Marco Botti’s red-hot Giavellotto trying to shake up Kyprios in the Comer Group International Irish St Leger. He comes here in the form of his life.

The €250,000 Tattersalls Ireland Super Auction Sale Stakes has been truly dominated by the visitors and another bold bid ought to be expected again this time around with seven British hopes.

British-dominated finishes in

Tattersalls Ireland Super Auction Sale Stakes

Ahead of this weekend, I put the question to traders at Paddy Power and Ladbrokes to price up how many British-trained winners they expect to figure at the 2024 Irish Champions Festival

Paddy Power make it 4/6 that there will be four or more - at least matching last year’s total - 2/1 for five or more, 6/1 for six or more, 20/1 for seven or more and 50/1 for eight or more.

Ladbrokes go shorter at even-money for five or more British winners, 5/2 for six or more and 7/1 about seven-plus.

With the British winning four races last year - and there being an extra race in the programme this time at Leopardstown - Paddy Power’s 2/1 about going one better than the 2023 total looks pretty fair value. Let battle commence.