OSCAR Wilde famously said that there is only one thing in life worse than being talked about, and that is not being talked about. Based on the fallout from last weekend’s Sky Bet Club Moscow Flyer Novice Hurdle, that is not something Salvator Mundi will have to worry about over the next two months.

It is one of the beauties of sport, and particularly horse racing, that two people can watch the same thing and emerge with completely different views on what has just happened, and a prime case of that transpired following last Sunday’s Grade 2 at Punchestown.

Many of those with nicely-priced ante-post tickets for Salvator Mundi in the Supreme Novices’ Hurdle were marvelling at his ability to quicken up as well as he did for a ready victory despite racing so keenly and jumping sketchily. His trainer Willie Mullins has followed this path to Cheltenham glory with many others down the years.

On the opposite side, there is also a clear contingent who couldn’t dream of getting stuck into Salvator Mundi at odds ranging from 3/1 and 7/2 for the Cheltenham curtain raiser after doing so much wrong in terms of how he raced. It was a performance that absolutely split opinion. That will only add intrigue to the debates set to take place on the Cheltenham preview circuit up and down the land in the lead-up to the Festival.

The market fully expects Paul Townend to be aboard Salvator Mundi in the 2025 Supreme and regardless of how impressed or unimpressed you were, it’s hard to identify a raft of standout contenders for the race with a little more than seven weeks to go until the Festival.

Level of opposition

Romeo Coolio is a high-class sort but still showed he is not unbeatable when disappointingly turned over by Tounsivator in the Royal Bond Novice Hurdle. Sure, the race probably didn’t unfold to suit him ideally there but it didn’t for Salvator Mundi in the Moscow Flyer either - and he still managed to win.

Kopek Des Bordes is next in the market but needs to jump a hell of a lot better than he did when winning a Leopardstown Christmas Festival maiden hurdle. If he were to win decisively at the Dublin Racing Festival, one wonders whether connections could split him and Salvator Mundi up by running Kopek Des Bordes in the Turners Novices’ Hurdle instead.

Workahead, reported to be going straight to Cheltenham after winning a maiden hurdle on St Stephen’s Day too, looks a promising type high up in the Supreme betting, though it will be a fact finding mission in its own way to see how he fares stepping up to Grade 1 company from a maiden. In other words, there are some interesting players in the Supreme but it’s hard to say there are absolute standout threats at the same time.

We all know Salvator Mundi appears to have been held in top regard for quite some time. His form with Sir Gino when second to him in an Auteuil hurdle back in April 2023 obviously looks really smart now, and he will technically have been hurdling for nearly two years by the time the Supreme comes around - even if it didn’t look like that at Punchestown in terms of how he jumped.

I wasn’t alone, however, in having my eyebrows raised by the fact that connections chose to refit a tongue-tie on the 8/15 winning favourite in the Moscow Flyer last weekend.

Here is the list of headgear changes Salvator Mundi has had in his career: a tongue-tie on his French debut, a tongue-tie and hood when sixth in the Triumph Hurdle and then solely the hood for his 62-length stroll in a Tipperary maiden.

Curious reapplication

After missing 242 days following that ridiculously easy win, it was curious to see the top operation in National Hunt racing feel the need to reapply a tongue-tie at Punchestown.

There can be any number of possible motivations for why anyone runs a horse in a particular type of headgear, but the hood is generally applied in a bid to settle a free-going sort - and Salvator Mundi was very much that at Punchestown.

Obviously a tongue-tie can be interpreted as an aid for a horse’s breathing, helping to ensure their upper airway is free from obstruction by holding the tongue down and forward in the mouth. Personally, I have never been a fan of horses who need to wear the combination of both a hood and a tongue-tie at the same time. Whatever about trying to calm one possible query over a horse’s ability to settle or need for breathing assistance, trying to help both at the same time isn’t an ideal sell.

That is especially the case at the Cheltenham Festival, designed to be the ultimate test of championship-level racing. There isn’t meant to be any hiding place for examining the best.

If you don’t race in a conventional manner at Prestbury Park’s biggest dance, life gets tougher. Willie Mullins has won the Supreme Novices’ Hurdle more than anyone else - seven times - but he has also been let down in the race by fancied runners who entered the race with a slight query over one or other element of how they raced.

Concerns about a free-running Getabird (7/4 favourite) going left-handed appeared to come to fruition when he bombed out in the Supreme, Dysart Dynamo (9/4 joint-favourite) was too keen before falling three flights from home, the signs of Asterion Forlonge (9/4 favourite) jumping right at the Dublin Racing Festival came out in a huge way at Cheltenham and Tullyhill (11/4 favourite) failed to fire 12 months ago after heading into the race as a divisive enough market leader among punters.

Dysart Dynamo and Tullyhill also sported tongue-ties in the Supreme. None of Mullins’ winners of the race wore any headgear.

Headgear record

If the hood and tongue-tie does remain on Salvator Mundi heading into the curtain-raising contest of the 2025 Festival, what is the record like for horses in the same headgear at the meeting?

Across the last decade at the Cheltenham Festival, horses who raced in a hood and tongue-tie in Grade 1 races at the meeting have a record of 0-14. When stretching it out to all races at the Festival in the last 10 years, the return is three winners from 48 runners (6% strike rate).

All three of those victories came in handicap company, two of which were won by extremely well-treated sorts: Delta Work off a mark of 139 in the 2018 Pertemps Final (went on to have a peak rating of 171) and The Shunter, who technically raced off 133 in the Plate when factoring in what was essentially a gift of a 7lb claim from Jordan Gainford in the 2021 Plate (went on to have a peak rating of 153).

It must be said that those levels of success aren’t wildly different to what the market would have expected when factoring in the relevant SPs of the runners involved. That isn’t too concerning for Salvator Mundi supporters.

However, when focusing on the Grade 1 races at the meeting and horses who wear a hood on its own (or with any other type of headgear), there have been poor returns relative to what would have been expected by punters.

Looking at the SPs of these hooded runners, and equating, for example, an even-money shot as 0.5 expected winners, you would have expected 6.7 winners for hooded runners in Cheltenham Festival Grade 1s since 2015. How many actually clicked? From a total of 92 runners, only two have won (Ferny Hollow in the 2020 Champion Bumper and Gaelic Warrior in the 2024 Arkle). That represents a measly 2% strike rate.

There were 34 hooded runners in Grade 1s sent off at single-figure prices. Just the one managed to win - Gaelic Warrior - albeit plenty were placed.

When stretching the sample out to all races (including handicaps etc.) at the last 10 Cheltenham Festivals, the strike rate improves only marginally to 3% (from 2% in Grade 1s).

Again, when judging how many winners you would have expected from these runners’ starting prices, the market anticipated 15.13 winners. The actual return was roughly only half as good as that (eight winners from 254 runners).

Ultimately, horses decide the outcome of horse races. Statistics don’t stop them from doing so and are always open to interpretation. Anyone would struggle to say, however, that the results for Grade 1 horses at Cheltenham wearing such headgear is uplfiting.

Just another factor to consider when weighing up the 2025 Supreme favourite. The talking looks set to continue.