FEATURE handicaps at Royal Ascot are ridiculously competitive. One of the prime examples of that strength in depth came in the 2020 King George V Stakes when the following year’s Gold Cup winner Subjectivist got beaten off a mark of 94.

He came up a length and a quarter short of a certain Hukum, who took advantage of a seriously attractive mark of 90 on his way to becoming a dual Group 1 winner rated 127.

A year earlier, Dubai Honour was drawn on the wrong side in the Britannia Stakes when fourth, while ‘winning’ his group, off a mark of 91. Before the year was out, he was raised to a mark of 121 and has since plundered two Australian Group 1s for William Haggas.

Moral of the story: you typically needed several pounds in hand - and a dollop of luck - to collect in the Royal Meeting’s handicaps.

There were plenty of Irish challengers in this year’s handicaps at Royal Ascot, but - prior to Crystal Black’s popular success in the Duke Of Edinburgh Stakes on Friday afternoon - only one had managed to hit the target, the Willie Mullins-trained Belloccio (previously trained on the flat in Britain).

It wasn’t an Irish bonanza in the handicaps, but recent history suggests it can be worth watching out for some of these out-of-luck visiting contenders if they turn out again in the next month.

Keeping the faith

Beaten Irish-trained runners in handicaps at Royal Ascot since 2014 have a solid 26.44% strike rate on their next start, if that appearance comes in the month of July (23 winners from 87 runners). In comparison, the record of equivalent British-trained runners in the same timeframe is 12.13%.

What is arguably most notable about keeping a close eye on the visiting team’s beaten handicappers is how the market interprets them on their next start. According to the Proform database, backing these Irish-trained runners blindly next time out in July would have you €43.60 in profit to a €1 stake.

Overall, in the last 10 years, the market would have expected just over 14 winners from these Irish runners, but the actual number of victories was 23.

Last year we saw Jackie Oh finish 20th of 29 runners in the Sandringham Stakes, only to win the Group 3 Darley Rathbride Stakes at the Curragh on her next outing and go on to be placed in two Group 1s, including when beaten a neck in the Prix de l’Opéra.

Ross O’Sullivan’s Warrior Brave was 22nd of 27 in the Buckingham Palace Stakes but turned out the following month at Naas and scored readily at 8/1. On the same Naas card, the Johnny Murtagh-trained Clounmacon popped up at the same price when landing the Listed Yeomanstown Stud Irish EBF Stakes. Similar to Jackie Oh, she was 25th of 29 in the Sandringham on her previous appearance.

Indian Wish, 10th in the Kensington Palace Stakes for Joseph O’Brien, won the Listed Irish Stallion Farms EBF Cairn Rouge Stakes at Killarney next time out, beating another Royal Ascot representative into second, Sandringham fourth Unless.

Sandringham standout

Looking at runners from all countries in last year’s Sandringham, won by Coppice, these were certainly not the only future winners to emerge from being safely held in that fillies’ cavalry charge.

Magical Sunset (beaten eight lengths in eighth), Breege (second) and Dream Of Love (seventh) finished one-two-three in the Group 3 Oak Tree Stakes at Glorious Goodwood shortly after the Royal Meeting. Breege went on to land a Group 3 of her own at Epsom, and the aforementioned Unless (fourth) plundered a listed prize at the Curragh.

Sixth-placed Novus claimed the Group 3 Pride Stakes before the season was out, the 10th, Lady Alara, struck at 25/1 in a premier fillies’ handicap at Ascot two starts later, 11th-placed Cell Sa Bella collected in the Listed October Stakes back at the same venue and Choisya (16th) struck at 10/1 in a competitive fillies’ handicap at Glorious Goodwood on her next outing. Even all the way back in 28th, Foniska went from beating one rival home to winning the Listed Navigation Stakes at Cork on her next run for Jessica Harrington. It was quite the renewal, and evidence of just how competitive the Sandringham can be with unexposed fillies in the mix.

Back on the theme of Irish-trained runners, a year earlier, Willie McCreery’s Cigamia replicated the aforementioned route to Cairn Rouge success, previously fourth in the Sandringham. That summer also saw Ladies Church strike at 12/1 in the Group 2 Barberstown Castle Sapphire Stakes at the Curragh, having finished 10th of 27 runners in the Palace Of Holyroodhouse Stakes a month earlier.

Given so much of the early-season action in Ireland was impacted by soft ground, quick conditions at Royal Ascot this week would have come as a different variable for several of the Irish challengers, particularly in the two-year-old division.

Different dynamic

The pace is often unrelenting, and potentially a significant ramping up of the tempo that they would have experienced in lead-up races at home. Getting on the wrong end of the draw can play a telling part in the outcome of the handicaps too, both on the straight course and over certain distances on the round course.

Ireland’s sprinters are thought to be a way behind their British counterparts, which is another factor in those handicaps over shorter distances. The sole Irish handicap victories thus far came over a mile and six furlongs and a mile and a half. Over the longer trip, the winner was trained by Willie Mullins, the third by Gavin Cromwell and fifth by Henry de Bromhead - a National Hunt influence on matters.

Most importantly, though - as outlined at the start - these are some of the most fiercely-contested handicaps of the entire year. There are less daunting options at home, possibly where there are not the same huge field sizes to deal with. On the first three days alone of Royal Ascot this week, there were 29 runners in the Royal Hunt Cup and Britannia, 26 in the Buckingham Palace, 24 in the Kensington Palace, 20 in the Ascot Stakes, 19 in the King George V Stakes and 16 in the Copper Horse.

Many feel that being unforgiving as a punter will likely serve you better in the long run than consistently excusing beaten efforts. And that is a theory I largely subscribe to in the main.

However, for Ireland’s beaten handicap challengers at the Royal Meeting, it can pay to contemplate a little forgiveness in the immediate aftermath.

WHAT a week it has been for Aidan O’Brien, Ryan Moore and the Coolmore partners.

More crucial big-race winners, more milestones reached and more evidence of the partnership’s brilliance on the big stage. While it may not have been their most high-profile victory of the week, I was very much taken by the performance of Illinois in winning Wednesday’s Queen’s Vase Stakes in what was said to be a track-record time.

His second to Ambiente Friendly in the Lingfield Derby Trial looks a whole lot better now after that rival went on to give City Of Troy most to think about at Epsom, and he shapes as though we haven’t gotten to the bottom of him as a stayer by any means. A half-brother to Arc heroine Danedream, he’s bred to be high class and looks an obvious candidate for the St Leger on the evidence of his Ascot display. The 6/1 available about him now looks too big.

Current ante-post favourite Los Angeles hails from the same stable and may not be a guaranteed runner, but connections have indicated this is the target for Illinois. Highbury, next in the market, finished behind the selection this week.

Leading Light (2013) and Kew Gardens (2018) are examples of Ballydoyle-trained Leger winners to have won the Queen’s Vase, while Eldar Eldarov followed the same route in 2022 and Harbour Law finished a close second in the Ascot contest before his Doncaster classic victory in 2016.