THERE is plenty on the line in today’s Darley Dewhurst Stakes at Newmarket.

Not only is it a £500,000 Group 1 that holds significant stallion-making potential - it has also been a serious pointer towards anointing Europe’s top two-year-old of the season.

A superb showing from City Of Troy in winning last year’s Dewhurst by three and a half lengths confirmed him as the highest-rated juvenile of 2023, and that followed a rich theme through the past decade.

No fewer than nine of the last 10 Dewhurst winners have gone on to be crowned Europe’s top-rated two-year-old of the year, as per the annual European classifications.

Aidan O’Brien has been responsible for a remarkable 13 top-rated two-year-olds in the classifications and The Lion In Winter will throw his hat into the ring to make that a 14th for the Ballydoyle handler when lining up in today’s Group 1 highlight.

The Sea The Stars colt posted a Timeform rating of 100p when impressing on debut at the Curragh in July, and that is rare air to be breathing. Of all 10 of O’Brien’s previous Derby winners, only Galileo and City Of Troy were rated higher after their debut runs, and he did nothing to dispel the feeling that he’s a Group 1 winner in waiting when landing the Group 3 Acomb Stakes last time.

It has probably gone under the radar to an extent - given how accustomed we’ve become to his ridiculously high standards - but it’s worth taking a moment to note that O’Brien has been operating at his highest strike rate for two decades this season in Ireland.

Rich returns

A glance at the flat trainers’ table ahead of yesterday’s action saw O’Brien operating at a sublime 28% strike rate domestically. There is obviously still some time to go before the end of the 2024 campaign, but that percentage is the Rosegreen operation’s highest strike rate in 20 years, when 77 winners in 2004 led to a 31% rate of success.

The current 2024 hit rate has been achieved from a much bigger sample of horses too (120 winners from 428 runners) and only once in that 20-year window has O’Brien ended the season with a strike rate higher than 24%. Things are certainly clicking at a noticeably strong level in Ballydoyle.

There is no escaping that the two-year-old division has been a real force for strengthening O’Brien’s strike rate this year. A total of 60 juvenile winners in Ireland alone this year (as of yesterday) was already more than he sent out in nine of the last 10 calendar years.

Ballydoyle’s two-year-old strike rate is also at its highest for over a decade domestically - one in every three juvenile runners have won in Ireland this season (33%), and they have won or been placed 60% of the time.

In comparison, across the previous 10 years, Ballydoyle’s domestic strike rate in this division averaged at 22.7% and the win-or-place strike rate was 47%.

For good measure, backing O’Brien’s two-year-olds blindly so far this year would also have you in profit to the tune of €17.83 (in comparison to an average loss of €32.98 for a €1 stake on each runner in the past decade).

Maiden impact

It has been in Irish maidens that the biggest impact has been felt so far this year with the two-year-old squad from Co Tipperary.

A current tally of 39 winners in this category is already four more than last year and three short of what’s understood to be his best ever juvenile maiden return in Ireland. That record could easily fall before the year is out.

Again, though, the efficiency with which the O’Brien two-year-olds are winning maidens is one of the standout takeaways from the figures.

He is operating at a 34% strike rate in Irish two-year-old maidens, which is some going when considering his percentages also would have been hit by the fact he has saddled either two or three different runners in 23 of the maidens he’s won this year.

All told, of the 75 Irish maidens that O’Brien has saddled runners in during the 2024 campaign, he has won 39 of them. That equates to a sizzling 52% success rate.

The breakdown of sires that have contributed to the Ballydoyle juvenile joy of this season highlights a shift in emphasis from recent years.

In the three years leading into 2024, Galileo was the stallion with the most two-year-old maiden runners for the stable across Britain and Ireland: 40 in 2021, 42 in 2022 and 30 in 2023.

The shift has now clearly gone towards Wootton Bassett, who has more juvenile maiden runners than any other stallion for Ballydoyle in 2024.

Bassett brilliance

Galileo’s juvenile maiden strike rate as the operation’s main provider over the previous three years was 17%, but Wootton Bassett is arriving with a lot more precocity at two. The son of Iffraaj is operating at a whopping 38% in juvenile maidens for Ballydoyle in 2024 (12 winners from 32 runners). Last weekend’s Prix Jean-Luc Lagardere scorer Camille Pissarro, also trained by O’Brien, is a fine advertisement for the sire’s talents. That was Camille Pissarro’s seventh run in seven consecutive months, so he clearly is taking his racing well and was following in the sire’s footsteps by winning that same Arc day Group 1.

The stallion with the second most runners for Ballydoyle in two-year-old maidens this year is another who can certainly produce juveniles - No Nay Never (five winners from 17 runners – 29% strike rate). It’s worth mentioning that, absent from that winner count is Whistlejacket, who got off the mark in listed company (rather than a maiden) before going on to win the Group 1 Prix Morny for the stable in August.

All in all, the dual attack of Wootton Bassett and No Nay Never is responsible for 17 of O’Brien’s two-year-old maiden winners in 2024 alone. In comparison, the breeding colossus Galileo, whose progeny often got better with time and experience, produced a combined total of 19 juvenile maiden winners for O’Brien in the entire previous three years.

It will be fascinating to monitor how the current high-class band of Ballydoyle two-year-olds progress into their classic season next year. With Galileo, one of the all-time stallion greats, there was hardly ever a concern that one would not progress at three, given the blend of toughness and constitution that was so often passed on to his progeny. Improvement could regularly be anticipated when going up to classic distances. The same cannot be said for all sires.

If there is one benefit to already come in the landscape shift, however, it is that Ballydoyle is seeing a quicker return with its two-year-olds than was the case recently with their legendary marksman - thus an stronger overall strike rate.

In The Lion In Winter - only the fourth son of Sea The Stars that O’Brien has ever been represented by on the racecourse - perhaps another stallion career might be launched for the same connections at Newmarket today. An unbeaten juvenile season, including wins at Group 3 and Group 1 level, would make for impressive reading. It would also add to what has already been a sparkling season for O’Brien with his two-year-olds.