AFTER four days of stuffing our faces with wall-to-wall quality racing over the Christmas period, the real work began for many of us this week when it came to analysing and dissecting the array of Cheltenham Festival clues on both sides of the Irish Sea.

There were no fewer than 63 races in Ireland over the four days, as well as plenty of graded action in Britain to boot. Some bubbles were burst, other reputations were enhanced and the picture still remains unclear in some divisions.

Is there an absolute standout novice hurdler in any distance category for 2023/’24? I’m not convinced there is.

Many will take a pause at this juncture to put forward selections for the Cheltenham Festival, but I’ll make a stab at the opposite. Here are the three current ante-post favourites for Grade 1s at the Cheltenham Festival that I’m eager to take on.

1. Grangeclare West

Brown Advisory Novices’ Chase

Odds range: 3/1 to 7/2

It’s difficult to fault much that Grangeclare West has done over fences, winning on both of his starts this season, but I’m yet to be convinced that he is the best of the bunch in the staying novice chase division this term.

Even Willie Mullins was surprised by the manner of his win in the Neville Hotels Novice Chase at the Leopardstown Christmas Festival, and, reading between the lines, it seems that Fact To File is probably held in higher regard by the champion trainer in this category. There is serious opposition from within his own stable.

Credit where it’s due, there was a wow factor about what Grangeclare West produced last week. However, just how robust the form is remains to be seen.

Corbetts Cross finished closest to him but I’m not convinced we saw the best of him on this occasion. He was arguably ridden overly cold, wasn’t particularly slick with his jumping and Racing Post Ratings reckon he ran no better than when beating Three Card Brag in a beginners’ chase. He could be an Irish National candidate for this spring, however.

Third-placed Flooring Porter raced on what appeared to be the slowest part of the chase track and connections are now considering reverting back to hurdles, while the fourth and fifth were rated 137 over hurdles and don’t look up to top-level standard.

The Cheveley Park-owned winner let his supporters down with a bang twice in his two Grade 1 runs last season, found to be blowing hard after being turned over as favourite for the Lawlor’s Of Naas Novice Hurdle. With Fact To File on the rise, and Albert Bartlett Novices’ Hurdle winner Stay Away Fay looking a lively challenger for the home team, odds as short as 3/1 look plenty skimpy about the ante-post favourite.

2. Allaho

Ryanair Chase

Odds range: 6/4 to 9/4

One of the most dangerous things for any punter to do is to underestimate Willie Mullins’ ability to make the unlikely look readily possible.

Expectations that seem to apply to most trainers can go out the window with the Closutton genius, but I believe he will have to showcase all his magic to win another Ryanair Chase with Allaho.

The Cheveley Park-owned star was untouchable when in his pomp, especially over this course and distance, but neither of his first two runs since returning from an unusual injury have suggested he is the force of old.

Granted, connections could easily be working back from the Ryanair with a view to having him in peak shape for that date, but Mullins did say the four-time Grade 1 winner went to the King George “in tip-top order” before he found Hewick and Bravemansgame too strong at Kempton. It’s hard to imagine that Allaho would have ever had trouble beating those rivals in his heyday, yet he likely would have only been fourth if Shishkin hadn’t come down at the second last.

Age catches up with even the best of horses, and it might be doing just that with him now as a 10-year-old. The biggest concern in terms of taking him on for the Ryanair is finding a proper Grade 1 horse to lower his colours. It looks a really average division at present, and if connections of Jonbon opted to change tack after their Clarence House clash with El Fabiolo, this race would look his for the taking.

Regardless, odds as short as 6/4 about Allaho probably overestimate his ability at this stage of his career. It looks poor value at the very least.

3. Burdett Road

Triumph Hurdle

Odds range: 7/2 to 5/1

Overvaluing form in the first half of the season when it comes to the juvenile hurdle division can be a dangerous step, and that is what I fear has happened with Burdett Road at the head of the JCB Triumph Hurdle market.

There is probably no division that is more open to serious change in the spring than this one. Look no further than both Pentland Hills and Burning Victory winning on their hurdling debuts in late February on their way to winning the Triumph.

Burdett Road has been impressive thus far over flights and was a useful flat performer, but it’s worth remembering that Ireland were extremely strong in this division last season and this ante-post favourite has yet to meet an Irish-trained juvenile. The closest he came to that was beating An Bradan Feasa last time, with that rival winning a Ballinrobe maiden hurdle in September on his previous and final start for Joseph O’Brien before joining Jack Jones.

The Grade 2 Mercedes-Benz South Dublin Juvenile Hurdle won by Kala Conti at the Leopardstown Christmas Festival looked a quality event, and Storm Heart impressed at Punchestown on New Year’s Eve. Don’t forget, his trainer Willie Mullins still appears to have some highly-regarded bullets to fire in this division too.

Irish-trained horses supplied the first 10 home in last year’s Triumph Hurdle (admittedly only three of the 15 runners were British), and they were also responsible for the first, second, third, fourth, sixth and seventh in the Boodles Juvenile Handicap Hurdle.

In a category where there are still some season-shaping formlines likely to come, there doesn’t look to be much juice in Burdett Road’s price as he bids to provide James Owen with his first Cheltenham Festival winner.

AN impressive success for the Gordon Elliott-trained Jalon D’oudairies last week at Leopardstown brought some much needed order to the Champion Bumper picture, given the scene had lacked a standout name to that point.

Willie Mullins has long been the trainer to follow in the Weatherbys-backed Grade 1 at Cheltenham, winning the race a record 12 times, so it’s slightly surprising that he has no horse shorter than 12/1 for the race at this stage.

In fact, his only representatives in the top 10 ante-post listings, according to Oddschecker, are mares Fleur Au Fusil and Aurora Vega, as well as gelding On Cloud Wine, who has yet to run. Mullins rattled off no fewer than 35 bumper winners in Ireland from the start of the season to October 12th, but he only had four more domestic successes in this category prior to a December 27th bumper double with Joystick and Hens Tooth. It has been slightly quieter than usual on this front for the winter.

What makes this interesting is that only one of the last 13 Champion Bumper winners hadn’t made their rules debut by this stage of the season. Relegate is the exception from 2018, having debuted for Mullins on January 13th that year.

In fact, she is one of only three Champion Bumper scorers since the turn of the millennium to not have run by this time of year in their Cheltenham-winning season. I’m surprised that the market hasn’t been more positive about the chances of Mullins’ Petit Secret, who won a traditionally hot bumper at the Fairyhouse Winter Festival. Granted, the form took a little knock over Christmas but he could easily represent each-way value at 25/1 for the Champion Bumper.

Ferny Hollow started off in the same contest on his way to Cheltenham success for this stable and he’s by Muhtathir, sire of another Champion Bumper winner in Envoi Allen.