TALK about having a high-class problem. In one sense, a highly impressive listed novice hurdle win for Tullyhill last weekend at Punchestown will have come as a relief to the Willie Mullins team.
Having looked a top-class prospect in bumpers last season, the £220,000 point-to-point recruit needed to prove he was still the same horse after blowing out badly at 1/8 on his hurdling debut, and winning a maiden hurdle that probably lacked depth at Naas last month. He answered the call pretty emphatically.
On the other hand, however, a nine-length hammering of bright prospect No Flies On Him might just have created a Cheltenham headache for the Closutton crew and, chiefly, Paul Townend.
While the stable’s Ballyburn is already firmly installed at the head of the Supreme Novices’ Hurdle market after dazzling over two miles at the Dublin Racing Festival, it looked as though the minimum distance is a perfectly suitable one for Tullyhill at Punchestown. Mullins noted in the immediate aftermath of Sunday’s success that Tullyhill “might go for the Supreme now”, adding: “That performance, to me, was good enough.”
As can be expected when trying to maximise their ace cards, the Mullins team could well opt to split Ballyburn and Tullyhill between the Supreme and Baring Bingham (formerly sponsored by Ballymore) at the meeting, while there is also the small matter of the yard’s Moscow Flyer Novice Hurdle scorer Mystical Power to consider too.
After the market had 48 hours to react to Tullyhill’s performance, Ballyburn was priced up as the 9/4 favourite for the Supreme and 5/2 favourite for the Baring Bingham on the Betfair Exchange (ante-post rules apply). Such a small gap in the prices tells you just how on a knife-edge a decision could be on Ballyburn’s Cheltenham target.
Crucially, Tullyhill’s only Festival entry is for the Supreme.
Just how Mullins opts to divide his novice hurdlers will be one of the biggest talking points in the lead-up to the Festival, and history tells you that the call will probably be a late one too.
Against the clock
A factor that ought to be given some consideration with those contemplating Tullyhill’s chances is just how close his Punchestown victory came before Cheltenham.
If he does indeed take up his Supreme engagement, it will be a turnaround of only 23 days between races. In an ideal world, connections would surely prefer longer to prepare for the biggest test in his career, especially considering the necessary travel that needs to be factored in for running on the first day of Cheltenham. The stats paint a murky picture too.
Since the 2010 Cheltenham Festival, 73 horses have run in either the Supreme, Baring Bingham or Albert Bartlett on the back of a 23-day layoff or shorter. Only one has won.
For good measure, that one outlier was the eccentric Labaik, who effectively refused to race in his pre-Cheltenham outing when planting himself at the start before eventually consenting to get around in his own time.
It wasn’t as though Labaik had anything like a race that could be compared to what Tullyhill did last weekend.
There has only been one other winner of the aforementioned Cheltenham Grade 1 novice hurdles since 2005 off such a short turnaround: Go Native in the 2009 Supreme Novices’ Hurdle. He had won the Grade 2 Johnstown Novice Hurdle just 16 days earlier for Noel Meade.
So, in total, from 2005 to 2023 there have been 116 novice hurdlers in Grade 1s trying to defy the sort of gap Tullyhill is attempting to overcome and just two have succeeded - one of whom effectively had no prep race when refusing at the tapes.
Market expectations
A 1.7% strike rate hardly inspires confidence in a horse who will be Supreme favourite if Ballyburn goes for the Baring Bingham, though he is clearly a talented operator.
In Tullyhill’s defence, many of those to attempt the 23-day-or-shorter turnaround were bigger prices than the Cheveley Park Stud-owned six-year-old.
Based on the starting prices of the 116 runners, you would have expected 3.57 winners in this period and there were two (for all that Labaik is included as one of those despite being a somewhat suspect qualifier in the system).
The joint shortest-priced runner in the sample was in fact a Mullins-trained fancy in the Supreme coming off exactly a 23-day break, like Tullyhill. Cousin Vinny could only finish fifth in the 2009 Supreme as 9/4 favourite behind Go Native, having came down at the last in the Deloitte Novice Hurdle on his final start before Cheltenham.
Other short-priced runners include Corbetts Cross (19-day gap), who ran out at the final flight when 9/4 favourite for last year’s Albert Bartlett and 7/2 joint-favourite Irving (17-day gap), who disappointed when mid-field in the 2014 Supreme.
Away from the Grade 1s in the 2019 Mares’ Novices’ Hurdle, the following season’s Champion Hurdle winner Epatante could only finish ninth when sent off 15/8 favourite - turning out 20 days on from an easy win at Exeter.
It must be acknowledged, though, that Willie Mullins can seemingly master feats that few others can.
Mullins’ record
How has he fared down the years with his Cheltenham runners off layoffs the same or shorter than Tullyhill’s?
The stats are a bit of a mixed bag for his hurdlers and chasers at the meeting. He has won with four of his 55 runners falling under these criteria since the turn of the millennium, tallying at a 7% strike rate. The market only expected 3.6 winners, so he has performed marginally above par in that sense.
However, when examining Mullins’ strike rate at the last 10 Festivals in chases and hurdles - focusing on those returning from a gap of 24 to 56 days - his rate of success jumps to 12%.
At 57 days or longer of a break, he operates at 14% - nearly double his record in the Tullyhill range.
Finally, it’s worth a glance at the horses who provided Mullins with his four Festival triumphs in chases/hurdles off short turnarounds this century.
One of them was Quevega, who was simply in a league of her own winning the 2009 Mares’ Hurdle, and another was Burning Victory, who was booked for second in the 2020 Triumph Hurdle but for Goshen’s shocking final-flight exit.
Winning profiles
The other two would come as extremely well-handicapped youngsters. Wicklow Brave, who went on to win the Grade 1 Punchestown Champion Hurdle and Group 1 Irish St Leger, bolted up in the 2015 County Hurdle off a handy mark of 138 (later held a peak official mark of 164 in Ireland).
The final candidate was Don Poli, winner of the 2014 Martin Pipe. The handicap blot collected off a mark of 143 and finished second in a Grade 1 novice hurdle on his next start, going on to plunder a trio of top-level chases (peak chase rating of 167).
In summary, Mullins’ hurdlers and chasers to win on the back of short turnarounds like Tullyhill will try to do were either a class apart from their rivals like Quevega, fortunate to win like Burning Victory or were thrown in for a Festival handicap like Wicklow Brave and Don Poli.
Tullyhill’s backers will surely be hoping he falls into the first category of those listed, though you’ll struggle to find many who view the Supreme as Grade 1 gimme.
That said, who else would punters want on their side at Cheltenham but Willie Mullins? The clock is ticking for Tullyhill.
1-73 - the record of horses returning from a 23-day gap between runs or shorter in the Supreme, Baring Bingham or Albert Bartlett since 2010 (Labaik the only winner)
1.7% - the strike rate for the same short turnaround criteria stretching back to 2005 at the Cheltenham Festival
7% - Willie Mullins’ Cheltenham Festival strike rate in hurdles and chases with horses returning from 23-day gaps or shorter
14% - Willie Mullins’ Festival strike rate in hurdles/chases, but when returning from more than eight weeks off