IT’S probably fair to say that we are in an era of more data than ever before in horse racing.

The ability for followers of the sport to access sectional times, striding data, jumping efficiency figures and more is a far cry from what was available not all that long ago. It is a growing area trending in one direction.

We all know the outcome of races can be decided by the smallest of margins. Just like we all know the importance of any horse’s rating when running in a handicap.

That is what makes it a peculiar and unsatisfactory situation that we do not know the exact weight carried by any given runner in Ireland at present - and that they could be carrying as much as 4.9lb more than is stated on the racecard without any published record of this extra weight.

Of course, there are reasons for this scenario; well meaning ones at that. Up until May 2022, riders were given a 3lb allowance to factor in the weight of their safety gear.

When it was announced that racecourse saunas would not be reopening at Irish tracks, the Irish Horseracing Regulatory Board then agreed to add on an additional pound to the existing safety allowance, taking it to 4lb.

Such are the weighing procedures that are currently in use, with these allowances jockeys can weigh out to as much as 4.9lb above their published racecard weight without it being declared to the public.

Higher weights

As outlined by Noel Meade in a separate discussion over the weight of sectional timing trackers last year, there now is the potential for National Hunt horses who are declared to run under 12st to now be carrying close to 12st 5lb. A two-year-old maiden runner scheduled to carry 9st 7lb may in fact have just under 9st 12lb on their back.

Flagging this point isn’t to suggest that riders should not have weight aids in this regard. That is not the intention at all.

The issue is purely that we do not know if a handicap runner is carrying anything up to 4.9lb more than stated in the racecard, or if they are running at closer to their published racing weight. The weight amounts involved could easily be the equivalent of what a horse might receive as a handicap penalty for winning a race, so surely more clarity on publishing actual weights would be of benefit to anyone assessing a race.

The topic prompted a thought on how possible extra weight might be impacting the performance of horses competing off top weight in handicaps.

My best attempt to identify and quantify any potential patterns was to analyse the results of horses carrying the highest weight (incorporating any apprentice/conditional claims) in Irish handicaps from 2017 to 2021, and comparing them with handicaps run from May 2022 onwards (the time when the IHRB said the allowance would be increased to its current ‘4lb’ level).

Distance implications

When breaking the results down into different race categories, there were some interesting outcomes.

Essentially, top-weights are winning handicaps less frequently on the flat and over jumps since the increased allowance came into play in May 2022 - but especially in National Hunt handicaps.

According to the Proform database, horses carrying the top weight in handicaps over hurdles and fences won 10.27% of the time from 2017 to 2021. This has fallen to 8.76% since May 2022, which seems a pretty noteworthy drop-off given we are dealing with a sample of over 1,500 horses in the May 2022-onwards column alone.

What is arguably more eyecatching is that the market perhaps has not adapted to this trend yet. This was evaluated using the WAX (wins above expectation) scale, which takes the total number of top-weight winners - minus the number of winners they would have been expected to have according to their starting prices in the betting.

From 2017 to 2021, there were 3.36 fewer top-weight winners than the market expected in National Hunt handicaps. Since May 2022, that same figure is a sizeable 28.42 fewer top-of-the-weights winners than expected.

Perhaps there is another factor at play, other than potential extra weight, in terms of why top-weights have been less prolific in handicaps over jumps than previously. However, there has not been a change in approach from the jumps handicapping team during this period that would have prompted the trend.

The results of this analysis also point to longer distance National Hunt handicaps as the race category where top-weights have struggled most in recent times. Could potentially shouldering extra weight over further be an influence?

From 2017 to 2021, top-weights in National Hunt handicaps over two miles and seven furlongs or further won 9.26% of the time. Since May 2022, they have a much milder strike rate of 6.65%.

In comparison, the drop off from two miles to two and a half miles is only 9.45% now, versus 10.14% in 2017 to 2021.

Feature prizes

It appears as though winning valuable National Hunt handicaps (worth at least €50,000) with top-weights has also become tougher in recent times, now at 5.1% (from 9.69%).

That said, there were also reductions in strike rate at the bottom end of the ladder over jumps. Top-weights in National Hunt handicaps with a rating cap of 95 (the lowest possible handicap band) are now operating at 7.08% - down from 10.02% in the previous five-year window.

Broadly speaking, the results were not so dramatic on the flat but the overall strike rate on the level has still dropped to 10.67% (from 11.34%).

Most noteworthy in this area, however, is the difference in top-weight performances when broken down by distance category.

Similar to the case with longer distances over jumps, those running over further on the flat have experienced the biggest falloff. A strike rate of 11.64% at a mile and a half or further is now down to 9.28%, with a noteable drop in winners above expectations too.

Intriguingly, the opposite is true for the five-to-seven-furlong range of handicaps. Their top-weight strike rate has picked up from 11.09% to 12.48% - a real outlier.

It’s logical to think that carrying bigger weights over longer distances is tougher than at shorter trips, though top-weights did previously have a better record in the mile-and-a-half-plus category before May 2022.

Could additional weight be a factor at play? If we knew exactly the weight these horses were carrying it would certainly be easier to draw firm conclusions.

Nevertheless, the race results are pointing to a shift in dynamics somewhere along the chain.