THE curtain might only have just come down on the National Hunt season but the process of sourcing the next crop of jumping stars is already well underway for yards across Ireland and the UK.

This past week marked the first store sale of 2024, and trainers have been restocking at point-to-point sales through the past few months too. Recruiting the right horse power is central to the fortunes of any operation.

Reviewing the past can often be one of the best ways of anticipating the future, and various trends certainly took shape on the track during the 2023/’24 campaign in Ireland.

For the purpose of attempting to put some flesh on the bones of observations from the past season, we will take a closer look at where the top National Hunt horses in Ireland emerged from this past campaign.

To do so, the results of each Grade 1 in Ireland was considered - more specifically, the first three home in these top-level contests.

Private route

While there is understandably a keen interest in paying attention to the activity that goes on in the sales ring, the past season’s results hit home just how influential private purchases are on our biggest National Hunt races.

Of the 25 individual horses who won Grade 1 races in Ireland last term, more than two thirds - 17 horses - joined their current connections without having to bid for them at public auction. That 68% private record is slightly higher than the wider rate of those placed in Grade 1s (59.4%), but both figures demonstrate how the majority of these top jumpers join their connections without having had their final purchase price disclosed to the public.

This theme is surely impacted considerably by how Willie Mullins often tends to do business, especially in an era when his runners are dominating these races at the highest level.

To refer back to a case study in this column following the 2023 Cheltenham Festival, the master of Closutton was responsible for a whopping 51 of the 162 runners in Grade 1 races at that meeting. What’s more, though, is that 40 of his 51 runners (78%) did not join their connections at public auctions.

Mullins is renowned for having a terrific scouting network in France and he is clearly capable of getting his hands on premier stock without having to engage in public bidding wars.

This means of recruitment might also appeal to some big-spending owners. When a horse’s purchase price is in the public domain, the stakes often feel intensified as to whether they are a success or failure.

Big-money scrutiny

Take Jonbon, for example. There has been an immense weight of expectation on him ever since he was knocked down for £570,000 after his debut point-to-point win. If we had never known his purchase price, there likely would have been much less scrutiny over him through his career.

The same fate appears likely to hang over Caldwell Potter after his monster €740,000 sale from Caldwell Construction to join the Paul Nicholls team.

Mystical Power, owned by J.P. McManus, John Magnier and Susannah Ricci, is one of only two homebred Grade 1 winners last season in Ireland \ Healy Racing

What about those who did not change hands privately?

When removing the two homebred Grade 1 winners in the sample (Mystical Power and Spillane’s Tower), the remaining six scorers joined their current connections at an average cost of approximately €230,000 (when converting GBP purchases to Euros).

As for all Grade 1-placed horses in Ireland last season, those who are running for the same connections who bought them at public auction had fetched an average of just over €208,000. A far cry from Hewick’s one-in-a-million purchase at €850 and Flooring Porter’s €5,000 acquisition from a Facebook advertisement. Those really are remarkable stories in the current environment.

As for where these runners were sourced from, the most dominant supply areas are, unsurprisingly, Irish point-to-points and French races.

Eight of the 25 Grade 1 winners in Ireland last term started their careers between the flags - the exact same amount as were sourced from France.

When broadening the scale out to all Grade 1-placed runners, the proportion of the entire sample is 36.5% point-to-point - 32.4% France.

French influence

Historically speaking, Willie Mullins has tended to be a more frequent player in the French market than Gordon Elliott, yet two of Elliott’s very best performers this season, Teahupoo and Irish Point, were both sourced privately from France. He is typically more active at the top end of point-to-point sales, but it’s interesting to note his major success from this French avenue.

On the opposite side of the coin, Mullins’ only Grade 1 winner in Ireland last season to have been bought publicly after winning a point-to-point was Grangeclare West - and he was originally bought by Elliott for Cheveley Park Stud at £430,000 prior to his split with the owners in 2021. Big-money point-to-point purchases at public auction hasn’t always been Mullins’ primary source of top stock.

On a separate note, no Grade 1 National Hunt winner last season was sourced from the flat in Britain or Ireland, and only two were placed (Bottler’secret and Nurburgring). The strong foreign offers that often appear for smart middle-distance horses in Ireland continues to take away from the previous supply of domestic flat runners going hurdling at a high level.

The two-mile hurdling division in particular has been hit hard by this trend.

Another theme to continue in the 2023/’24 campaign in Ireland is the influence of French-breds at the highest level on these shores.

More than two thirds of the Grade 1 winners here last term (16 of the 25) were bred in France, followed by seven Irish-breds, one from Britain and one from Germany. Of all the placed horses, Irish-breds marginally get the verdict with 37 Grade 1 runners in the frame, followed by France on 33, Britain on three and Germany with one.

With some challenging results for vendors in recent times at point-to-point sales and a murky middle-market overall, just how the upcoming major store sales in Ireland shape up will be a fascinating and concerning situation to watch. Some shrewd judges have pointed to the potential for value to be found in the store sector this year, and French-breds will surely continue to prove popular on the back of the past season’s results at the top table.

It is not an easy time for vendors, and challenges undoubtedly lie ahead. However, here’s hoping the appetite for buying – and training – the very best jumpers in Ireland is here to stay.