PRETTY much all sportspeople have areas of their game that they particularly excel in.
Anyone who has been watching David Beckham’s newly-released Netflix documentary would have been reminded of his exquisite ability to convert free kicks like few others, while his former teammate Roy Keane stood out in a different aspect of midfield duties with one-of-a-kind box-to-box play.
Similar can be said when it comes to jockeys, and the attributes that make them especially well suited to specific circumstances.
Jamie Spencer and Paul Carberry, for example, are renowned for their patience and poise in coming from off the pace, whereas A.P. McCoy looked uniquely tireless in his power-packed finishing drives. Each rider has their own individual style.
There was a reminder at Limerick last Sunday that some jockeys excel in certain types of races too when Ricky Doyle added to his haul of National wins by plundering the JT McNamara Ladbrokes Munster National Handicap Chase on Gevrey - the rider’s fourth National strike since 2020 after wins in the Midlands, Irish and Kerry Nationals.
Even in the Aintree feature, we have seen riders crack the code to winning the Grand National and return again for a repeat soon after.
National knack
In the last nine editions of the race, Leighton Aspell, Davy Russell and Derek Fox have each been able to win the world-famous contest for the first time before following up with a second success, while another winning rider in this period, Sam Waley-Cohen, notched seven wins over the Grand National course. Also during this spell, David Mullins won the race on Rule The World and was beaten a head in second on Pleasant Company two years later.
When it comes to valuable staying handicap chases in Ireland specifically, the results point to a few riders who are particularly effective in these circumstances.
For the purpose of analysing this category of race, all handicap chases run over two miles and six furlongs and further, and worth at least €40,000, were assessed since 2018.
When looking at riders who are still active, only 12 have won more than one lucrative handicap over these distances in Ireland. Four have won more than two. Paul Townend tops the standings with 10 wins from 45 rides - a pretty impressive strike rate of 22%. The six-time champion jockey has generally done well when trying to pick the best of Willie Mullins’ arsenal in these races.
Jack Kennedy is his nearest pursuer on seven winners from 38 rides (18% strike rate), again, boosted by the powerful ammunition for this category of race in Gordon Elliott’s yard.
Doyle delivering
However, it is arguably most noteworthy at this point that Ricky Doyle is third in this table of active riders - well up from his overall joint-31st place in the Irish National Hunt jockeys’ championship at present. This comes from just 11 rides in these races, meaning a very healthy strike rate of 36%.
The only other jockey in the listings with more than two winners in valuable Irish staying handicap chases since 2018 is Sean Flanagan (3 winners from 32 rides - 9% strike rate).
As for riders who have been exceeding market expectations, Townend, Kennedy and Doyle are again to the fore. Judged on their mounts’ starting prices, Townend has partnered six more winners in these chases than the market would have expected, Kennedy has four more than anticipated and Doyle has an additional three.
Doyle’s overall profit and loss total of +€171 is heavily influenced by Freewheelin Dylan’s 150/1 strike in the Irish Grand National but backing Townend blind in these races since 2018 would see you €26 in profit to a €1 stake on each of his rides. Likewise, you would be €22.50 in front if following Kennedy’s mounts.
Performing highly
What about those who are maximising their mounts’ potential in big staying handicaps but haven’t quite been hitting the target?
When looking at jockeys who have had at least 10 rides in this category, there are 10 who have beaten an average of at least 50% of their rivals in what are typically big-field contests.
Again, Doyle comes out as a high performer by beating nearly two thirds of the field on average, with Townend (third) and Kennedy (sixth) not far away either. Favourable mentions also go to Conor Orr, Richie Deegan and Gavin Brouder.
To isolate riders with the best strike rate of either winning or being placed (from jockeys with at least 10 rides in these races since 2018), Doyle is top of the charts again on 46%, followed by Townend (44%), Kennedy (39%), Brouder (38%) and a trio on 33% - Richie Deegan, Danny Mullins and Sam Ewing.
One rider who has not been mentioned so far but deserves an honourable mention is talented conditional rider Danny Gilligan.
He has not managed to make the earlier tables due to the fact he has not had 10 rides in big staying handicap chases yet, but his early exploits in this category are certainly impressive.
The 5lb claimer has in fact only had three rides in this criteria; winning the Mayo National on Tullybeg (12/1), doing the same on Ash Tree Meadow (13/2) in the Galway Plate and finishing a close third on Coko Beach (20/1) in last weekend’s Munster National. Those returns mean he has beaten an average of 94% of his rivals in these races so far. No pressure for him to maintain that record going forward!
Elliott firepower
All of those rides have come for Gordon Elliott, who has saddled more runners than anyone else in these races in recent years and has also recorded the most winners too. His 17 winners from 276 runners is more than Willie Mullins’ haul of 14 winners (from 160 representatives).
As for trainers with at least 10 runners in Ireland’s valuable staying handicap chases during this period, those who beat the highest percentage of their rivals are Peter Fahey (63%), Dermot McLoughlin (62%) and Paul Nolan (61%).
While every race varies in nature, avoiding being held up in these races has tended to be most fruitful in Ireland since 2018.
According to the Proform Racing system, horses who were categorised as leading had 13 wins from 87 runners (15% strike rate) and those deemed to be prominent resulted in 29 wins from 343 runners (8% strike rate). In comparison, those categorised as being held up saw 20 wins from 713 runners - a winning record of just 2.8%.
Interestingly, the stats are not quite as strong for front runners in similar contests in Britain. That is possibly linked to potentially stronger paces being set in that jurisdiction.
Those categorised as leaders and prominent racers have strike rates of 8.7% and 8.9% respectively (versus 15% and 8% in Ireland), and those deemed to be held up operate at 4.4% in Britain (versus 2.8% in Ireland).
The opening in-running comments for Ricky Doyle’s four National wins read “made virtually all”, “close up, soon led and made rest”, “prominent on inner” and “prominent early”.
As the old Irish proverb goes, a good start can be half the battle.