IT was a case of roles reversed in last Saturday’s Grade 2 Lismullen Hurdle at Navan compared to how the race unfolded 12 months earlier.

In a dramatic conclusion to the Railway Bar-backed prize in 2022, popular talent Bob Olinger went from hero to zero in the space of a few strides when picked off by a rallying Home By The Lee in the closing stages.

So unlikely it looked that the Joseph O’Brien-trained Grade 1 winner would reel in Bob Olinger, the winner traded at the highest possible odds on Betfair’s in-running markets at 999/1. Contrastingly, there were burnt fingers for backers of the Henry de Bromhead-trained runner-up, who hit a low of 1/33 in-running on the exchanges.

Last weekend, it was a much different story for supporters of the three-time Grade 1 scorer.

Again, the mount of Rachael Blackmore menacingly cruised up between horses in the straight, looking set to throw down a massive challenge, and it quickly turned into a race where only two counted – Robcour’s eight-year-old and recent Punchestown winner Zanahiyr (sent off the 5/4 favourite).

The balance appeared to shift considerably soon after the final flight when Zanahiyr edged on, trading as short as 1/3 in the in-running markets. However, Bob Olinger showed admirable battling qualities to get on top on the run in to notch his first hurdles win since the 2021 Ballymore Novices’ Hurdle.

Bob went from causing in-running market carnage of his own last year to stinging in-play backers of Zanahiyr in the same event 12 months later.

History repeating

The winner was also involved in a race full of dramatic late changes at the 2022 Cheltenham Festival when capitalising on Galopin Des Champs’ final fence exit in the Turners Novices’ Chase. It’s hardly surprising that Bob had hit the maximum price of 999/1 on Betfair, while the future Cheltenham Gold Cup hero was trading at the minimum of 1/100 at the time of his departure.

Last weekend wasn’t the only time there have been in-running shake-ups in the Lismullen either. Flooring Porter was trading at just shy of 1/2 at the time of his fall two flights from home in the 2021 renewal, while Grand Roi then hit 8/13 after being left in front only to fade into third in the same edition.

Even a year earlier, 10/1 shot French Dynamite went close to 1/3 in the in-running markets before being headed in the final 100 yards by staying stalwart Sire Du Berlais.

Is there something in the water when it comes to considerable shifts in momentum in this race, or at Navan in general? It’s no secret that the extremely stiff finish at the Co Meath venue is unforgiving – particularly when the ground is testing.

Course records

In order to make a judgement, the number of National Hunt runners on Irish tracks who were beaten after trading at odds of 1/10 or shorter in-running on the Betfair Exchange were tallied since the beginning of 2018. The tracks at which these defeats came were counted and compared with the overall number of runners at the track during this period.

For example, 21 beaten runners have touched 1/10 or shorter in running in National Hunt races at Galway since 2018 from a total of just over 4,000 jumps runners at the track in that timeframe. That would mean a rate of 0.51% of horses trading at those odds before going onto be beaten (roughly one in every 200), versus the overall sample of runners.

This process was completed for each track in Ireland, looking at its National Hunt fixtures over the last five years, and a table was formed of the top 12 courses with the highest rate of beaten short-priced horses in-running.

As it turns out, the track where short-priced reversals in-running occur at the highest rate is, in fact, Navan.

This is a course that certainly rewards toughness in the closing stages, and perhaps it can lead to the most dramatic swings in momentum late on too.

Sligo, a much different track, sits in second in the rankings. There is a slight uphill finish, but front runners can be hard to pass around here. Since 2018, Sligo is actually among the top five tracks in Ireland for National Hunt winners who were classified as front runners. Others might travel well in behind, but a rider who can dictate the pace on the lead and scrape paint off the rail can be hard to peg back.

Third-ranked Listowel often hosts meetings on soft ground and, interestingly, in Charlie Swan’s series of At The Races course guides, he noted: “Sligo is a very tricky track to ride. You never really know what to expect in terms of ground and – quite similarly to Listowel – when the ground gets heavy, it is unusually testing and holding and plenty of horses just can’t get through it. It seems to be especially hard to make up ground from off the pace when the ground is testing too… In general, it is a track that can produce a course specialist, usually a type that has pace, likes to race prominently and stays the trip well, as the finish is quite testing.”

Whatever about being tricky for riders, these venues apparently have the potential to cause problems for in-running punters too.

As for the tracks with the lowest rate of major in-running swings, Killarney – a fruitful venue for front runners that is certainly not as undulating as Sligo – is most stable in this department at 0.43%, a similar rate to close pursuers Tramore, Punchestown and Wexford.

Testing trips

What about the distances where short-priced in-running defeats are most common? It may not be a huge surprise that in chases and hurdles, the highest rate of horses turned over at 1/10 or shorter comes over the longest distances – from two miles and seven furlongs to three miles and five furlongs (0.83%).

In comparison, the rate over a mile and seven furlongs to two miles and two furlongs is a slightly lower 0.6%, while two miles and three furlongs to two miles and six furlongs is pretty much identical.

The stats also suggest that horses being beaten after touching 1/10 or shorter in running is likeliest in chases (0.8%) as opposed to hurdle races and bumpers (both 0.6%).

You might expect testing ground to be by far and away the most likely to wreak havoc, but the figures suggest there is in fact very little between the various going types. That said, the rate of short-priced in-running defeats is higher on heavy ground than any other going description.

Seeing victory snatched from the jaws of defeat can happen to even the most talented horses in training. In total, there have been 13 horses beaten after trading shorter than 1/10 in Irish Grade 1s since 2018, including Cheltenham Gold Cup hero A Plus Tard in the 2021 Savills Chase (hit 1/13 in running).

Short-priced turnovers can be difficult to anticipate in advance but one thing we have learned is that wherever Bob Olinger goes, excitement generally follows - and in-running drama. How good it is to see him back in business after travelling a rocky road in recent times.