IT hasn’t been your typical autumn that we’ve just emerged from. From the extremes of consecutive cancellations at Thurles due to the ground being too dry, to storms that have flooded Listowel and caused a Cork fixture to be cancelled, we’ve certainly been handed a mixed bag.

Against that backdrop, Met Éireann’s reflections on the past few months (published on TheJournal.ie on Thursday) made for interesting reading. According to records, the autumn just gone was the 19th warmest in Ireland since the year 1900, described as being “mild, dry and relatively dull”.

Nearly all rainfall totals were said to be below their 1981-2010 Long-Term Average this autumn, and that can easily impact the National Hunt landscape.

Willie Mullins has on several occasions been described as a creature of habit, and the best of his troops don’t tend to be seen until the rain gets into the ground in the winter. Case in point, he only had one runner on Ladbrokes Champion Chase day at Down Royal (run on ground described as good to yielding) and two runners over obstacles across the Navan Racing Festival (yielding, good to yielding in places for majority of meeting).

We know Mullins’ runners often close out their season more strongly than most come the late spring festivals, and part of that power-packed finish might well be linked to the fact his runners aren’t always severely tested in the early-season skirmishes. He doesn’t tend to risk picking up injuries running horses on quicker surfaces than they ideally want, either. As we saw when the ground was good at Thurles on Thursday of last week, he record-breaking handler eyecatchingly withdrew nine of his 10 declared runners due to the going.

Likewise, how trainers prepare their horses at home can also be impacted by dry weather in terms of work surfaces riding differently than they typically might during winter. Getting onto grass for exercise isn’t always accessible too.

Slower start

How might the dry spell have impacted the reigning dual champion trainer’s runners this autumn? A closer look at his strike rate for the month of November with his horses returning from a break (off for 150 days or more) tells us something.

The Proform database is one vehicle for trying to get a handle on this metric, though it must be said that new recruits to the yard who made their last start in France are not included on the database due to comprehensive French form not being available on the system.

With all that factored in, only once in the last six years has Mullins run so few horses meeting this criteria in November after a layoff. A total of five winners from 26 such runners equates to a 19% strike rate - his lowest win rate for the month of November since 2010 (as per the Proform records) and less than half the number of equivalent runners he saddled in the same period for 2023. These horses beating an average of 59% of rivals is also the lowest rate of its kind for Mullins since at least 2010.

To give an indication of how the 19% returning win rate last month ranks with his typical service, Mullins’ strike rate with all Irish runners across December 2023 and January 2024 was 34%.

As for November specificially, the champion trainer reached more taking strike rates of 36%, 37%, 28%, 29% and 33% in the previous five years in the sample with runners back from a break.

The point of flagging this quieter than normal start to the National Hunt campaign proper with those making their seasonal reappearances isn’t to knock Mullins’ form. Instead, it is a means of upgrading the performances of several of his runners who managed to win or go close over the past month, with a view to the rest of the season.

‘A bit heavy’

Three high-profile examples come to mind. These also come with the added bonus of the Closutton maestro having indicated as much himself.

Speaking at last week’s Racing Writers press morning about State Man’s Morgiana Hurdle second, Mullins noted: “I thought he ran a cracker at Punchestown. Three weeks ago, he was very big and I was wondering if I’d ever have him ready for the race. I’d say he went there a bit heavy.”

As for John Durkan third, Galopin Des Champs, he said: “I thought for his first run, it was a hell of a run. I took an awful lot out of it. We were beaten by two good novices [Fact To File and Spillane’s Tower], but it’s easier to challenge after cruising around behind than when you’ve been up there like he was. He’d had a thorn in a joint in the lead up to Punchestown; it was in an awkward place and we couldn’t get it out, so he had a little hold up. He had a few weeks off after we got it out, and missing that time was crucial, I thought. I wanted to get a run into him before Christmas and took a chance.”

Last but not least, a Grade 1 star who managed to win in November... In the immediate aftermath of Ballyburn’s 13-length success on chasing debut at Punchestown, Mullins observed: “He took a good blow during the race, which means there is a lot of improvement to come. A lot of ours are running that way, so it was a worry going out.”

The numbers very much back up Mullins’ intuition on that front. What is frightening for his rivals is how good Ballyburn and company could be when actually getting to peak fitness. Exceptional Hatton’s Grace heroine Lossiemouth only narrowly falls out of this date bracket, having won on her comeback on December 1st, but who knows how high she could fly this season with normal improvement.

No need to panic

Even when looking at the 2023/’24 campaign on its own, in the month of November last year we saw subsequent Grade 1 winners beaten for Mullins such as Galopin Des Champs (third as 1/2 favourite in the John Durkan on reappearance), Fact To File (runner-up at 8/11 in a Navan beginners’ chase) and Dancing City (beaten 17 and a half lengths in a Navan maiden hurdle).

Others such as Tullyhill (24-length second as 1/8 favourite in a Punchestown maiden hurdle), Capodanno (beaten 26 lengths in a listed chase at Thurles), Asterion Forlonge (beaten 17 lengths in the John Durkan) and Macdermott (beaten 25 lengths in a Cork beginners’ chase) all claimed graded races before the season was out too.

A particularly warm autumn might have contributed to the Closutton army being a little behind schedule in some instances, but we could see considerable improvement from his November returners as a result by the time we get to the key Christmas period. The floodgates might well be ready to open.