THE issue of overwatering raised its ugly head again during the week when Warwick was lost to waterlogging despite the course executive mandating a watering policy in the days leading up to the meeting. In fact, the track was being watered as late as Tuesday morning despite a forecast of heavy rain for the following day.

Ironically, it seems everyone who follows the sport knew that the majority of the country was in for a soaking in midweek, except for the management at Warwick, who laughably issued a statement as follows:

“Our team monitor the weather forecast on an extremely frequent basis in the lead-up to and during a raceday to ensure that optimal, safe ground will be produced…..watering resumed on Monday as there was still very little rain forecast. Yesterday [Tuesday] morning, the decision was taken to apply additional water to the course as the forecast remained dry.”

I cannot begin to explain how unbelievable this statement is. If Warwick were working on an agency forecast that suggested Wednesday was going to be dry, then that forecast was at odds with every other forecast available, which generally suggested that they would receive between and inch and two and a half inches of rain, and those of us who are in the business of tipping horses 24 hours and more ahead of time are in the habit of checking multiple forecasts to get a complete picture about the reliability of such predictions.

Multiple forecasts

It’s not always easy to check forecasts retrospectively, but the obsession of Betfair columnist and former PR man Tony “Big Tone” Calvin with citing multiple forecasts in his regular Monday tipping column, means that it’s pretty easy to cross-check the generic forecast with that scarily mythical forecast that Warwick were working with.

To water the day before the majority of weather prediction services predict an inch or more of rain is not just dubious, it is – to use the lexicon of former owner Hugh O’Donnell – Finmental.

One of the problems with watering policies is the duality of the BHA’s general instructions to racecourses (BHAGI), outlined below.

Flat tracks are meant to aim for good to firm ground, and jumps courses good ground (with good to firm acceptable), but the acceptance that some executives may want to produce slower ground is at best confusing, and at worst reads like the “real” guidance as the BHA are keen to point out that yielding ground is safer than good to firm ground.

Courses are perfectly able to water during and between meetings, so the reference to fixture patterns and consecutive days racing is pretty much meaningless here.

Racing Surface

2. The Managing Executive is responsible for the condition of the course as stated in BHAGI 1.4 and must aim to produce consistent ground and to maintain this consistency during a race meeting, in line with industry best practice.

Clearly, there will be times when racecourses are unable to influence their ground owing to weather conditions (e.g. after heavy rainfall) but Jump courses should aim to provide Good ground (and no firmer than Good to Firm).

Flat courses should aim to provide Good to Firm ground. It is accepted that some Managing Executives of Flat and Jump courses may wish to produce Good and Good to Soft ground, respectively, depending upon their track topography, soil type, weather and fixture patterns and/or whether they are staging two or more consecutive days racing.

Warwick wasn’t the only track watering on Tuesday despite a wet forecast, with Haydock and Southwell both applying irrigation despite the forecast; the former issued a warning on Wednesday about the chance of racing being abandoned at the weekend, and the latter had standing water in multiple places on the track during racing on Wednesday.

It really does seem that tracks are trying to avoid fast ground at all costs, even if that prejudices the prospects of racing going ahead at all.

It doesn’t need an expert to point out that such an attitude could be detrimental to the sport, and while I accept that safety should be an important concern when staging a race meeting, the primary concern is that tracks can stage competitive racing.

If Ireland, France, the US, Canada, Australia, Singapore, Hong Kong, Japan, United Arab Emirates and Saudi Arabia can race safely on fast turf, then a policy which discourages horses suited by such a surface encourages mediocrity on the world stage.

Worse, for British racing, it will see such horses sent to race in other jurisdictions.

The UK may end up the safest place to race statistically, but that will be a Pyrrhic victory if it drains the equine talent.

Of course, a poor run of form in April and May doesn’t preclude an upturn in fortunes, and vice versa for those who have made a quick start to the season, but there will be some trends which continue, and the task for punters is spotting the difference.

One trainer who has particularly impressed me with the regularity of winners and the promise shown by many of those winners for the future is Ed Walker, who is not the type of trainer to rush his juveniles, and therefore tends to a more progressive type of three-year-old in his care.

He won the Listed Heron Stakes on Thursday at Sandown with just such a colt in Almaqam and has the ammunition to gain a lot more blacktype this summer and beyond.

Makarova goes to the Temple Stakes with a definite chance this weekend, while Ten Bob Tony was beaten just a length into fourth in the German 2000 Guineas last weekend and will improve again for the return to seven furlongs, with the Jersey Stakes at Royal Ascot a realistic target; the likes of Rose Prick and English Oak are also progressive sorts for owner David Ward, who also has group ambitions for the recent Kempton winner Scenic, and there are plenty of more unexposed sorts at Kingsdown Stables just waiting for an opportunity.

Best results

Walker gets winners on the all-weather but gets his best results on turf and the fact that he has already turned out seven individual turf winners among his three-year-olds this season augurs well for the future.

That cohort are winning at a rate of 32% since the beginning of April, producing a profit of £265.70 for punters backing them all blind at SP, and most of the winners have the scope to progress through the handicap ranks, making me believe that the stable will continue to thrive.